Nightmare scenario here. We wake up on November 7th and find that Romney has won the Presidency, the Republicans have won the Senate, and kept their majority in the house. And then all of a sudden Senator McConnell, who after frequently using the filibuster to block democratic legislation, decides to eliminate the filibuster.
Can this happen? Yes.
Do we want to do everything we can to stop this? Yes.
And how do we do this when there are voters who vote "the person not the party" and are satisfied with their republican congressman? I have an idea.
At the outset, I want to say that this will not work for every race and it will not work for every voter. It will only work if the voter has some identification with the democratic party and/or democratic positions on issues. But if you have a friend, relative or acquaintance who indicates that they are thinking about or planning to vote for the republican incumbent who you think might be persuaded otherwise you may want to give this a shot.
When you speak to this person, tell them how the republican party has changed, in that it is moving more and more rightward. Explain to them that the tea party has launched primary challenges against any republican they did not think was conservative enough, and that some of these challenges have been successful. Use the Lugar/Mourdock race as an example. Explain to them that because of this, the "reasonable" republicans have felt that it is necessary to take very conservative positions. And explain that unfortunately [congressman incumbent republican] has been forced to take some of these positions recently. And then give them examples.
Then take an issue that is important to the voter. And then explain the republican position on this issue. Explain that [congressman incumbent republican] either has taken a position unfavorable to the voter or that [congressman incumbent republican] will be pressured to take such a position by the tea party republicans.
Then explain to the voter that [democratic challenger] has a position that is in line with the voter's position, and that if [democratic challenger] is elected that s/he will stop the republicans from passing legislation that the voter won't like.
Explain to the voter how scared you are that the right wing republicans will gain control of all three branches of the government. Explain that Romney is ahead in many polls so he may well win. Explain to them how the democrats have a razor thin majority in the senate and with democrats having to defend 23 of the 33 senate seats up for re-election this year the democrats are facing an uphill battle to hold onto the senate.
And then tell the voter that if Romney wins the presidency and the republicans take control of the senate, the only thing stopping the republican party from passing a radically conservative agenda (including give examples) would be Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the house.
Explain to the voter that the first and most important vote that their representative will take is the vote for speaker of the house. Explain if [congressman republican incumbent] is re-elected that s/he will vote for John Boehner for speaker, who will then, along with Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney pass [give examples of legislation the voter won't like]
Tell the voter that you understand that they vote the person and not the party, but that this year is different. And tell them that it is okay to feel bad about not voting for [congressman republican incumbent] but that it is necessary to prevent [give examples]
Please note that this approach is worth a shot. It has worked before. In 2006, the voters of Rhode Island voted Senator Chafee,a moderate republican out of office,because they understood that it was necessary to keep the senate in democratic hands. And if voters do the same this year we may, despite the pundits predictions, have Nancy Pelosi as the speaker of the house in January.
P.S. The purpose of this diary is to discuss a way to persuade some voters with the goal of taking back the house. I am aware that Nate Silver's projections give Obama the edge and that the senate forecasts do not look as bleak as they once did. But keeping both the White House and the Senate in democratic hands is not a certainty, and for this reason we need to keep trying to take back the house.