In many comments and diaries I have seen different combinations of winning states and claims of which states were needed or which ones he could lose and still win. But these are all over the place. I thought it would be useful to put together all of the scenarios that would result in President Obama being re-elected given the set of swing states still in play. The scenarios are based on the following states being in play:
Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Below the Squiggle is the complete list of scenarios for winning, losing, and even worse than losing - tying, because that would put the vote for President to the House of Representatives and I don't think any of us could stomach watching that go down.
Hope it useful and link it in comments where it might be useful.
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|
The assumed states in play and their Electoral Votes |
|
State |
FL |
OH |
NC |
VA |
WI |
CO |
IA |
NV |
NH |
|
EVs |
29 |
18 |
15 |
13 |
10 |
09 |
06 |
06 |
04 |
|
The assumed Electoral Vote counts |
|
|
President Obama Loses Re-Election |
|
|
By winning zero states or only one state
|
|
|
|
President Obama Wins Re-Election |
|
|
By winning five or more states
|
|
|
|
President Obama Wins Two States |
|
33 Electoral Votes Needed |
|
|
|
Wins if FL is one of them
Wins if OH+NC
|
|
|
|
|
If President Obama gets 1 Electoral Vote from Nebraska
|
|
|
Ties if OH+VA
|
|
|
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL+OH |
|
47 |
|
FL+NC |
|
44 |
|
FL+VA |
|
42 |
|
FL+WI |
|
39 |
|
FL+CO |
|
38 |
|
FL+IA |
|
35 |
|
FL+NV |
|
35 |
|
FL+NH |
|
33 |
|
OH+NC |
|
33 |
|
OH+VA |
|
31 |
|
OH+WI |
|
28 |
|
OH+CO |
|
27 |
|
OH+IA |
|
24 |
|
OH+NV |
|
24 |
|
OH+NH |
|
22 |
|
NC+VA |
|
28 |
|
NC+WI |
|
25 |
|
NC+CO |
|
24 |
|
NC+IA |
|
21 |
|
NC+NV |
|
21 |
|
NC+NH |
|
19 |
|
VA+WI |
|
23 |
|
VA+CO |
|
22 |
|
VA+IA |
|
19 |
|
VA+NV |
|
19 |
|
VA+NH |
|
17 |
|
WI+CO |
|
19 |
|
WI+IA |
|
16 |
|
WI+NV |
|
16 |
|
WI+NH |
|
14 |
|
CO+IA |
|
15 |
|
CO+NV |
|
15 |
|
CO+NH |
|
13 |
|
IA+NV |
|
12 |
|
IA+NH |
|
10 |
|
NV+NH |
|
10 |
|
President Obama Wins Three States |
|
33 Electoral Votes Needed |
|
|
|
Wins if FL is one of them
Wins if OH and NC are two of them
Wins if OH and VA are two of them
Wins if OH and WI are two of them EXCEPT OH+WI+NH (tie)
Wins if NC and VA are two of them EXCEPT NC+VA+NH (tie)
Wins if OH+CO+IA
Wins if OH+CO+NV
Wins if NC+WI+CO
|
|
|
|
|
Ties if OH+WI+NH
Ties if NC+VA+NH
Ties if VA+WI+CO
|
|
|
|
|
If President Obama gets 1 Electoral Vote from Nebraska
|
|
|
Wins if OH+WI+NH
Wins if NC+VA+NH
Wins if VA+WI+CO
|
|
|
Ties if OH+CO+NH
Ties if NC+WI+IA
Ties if NC+WI+NV
|
|
|
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL+OH+NC |
|
62 |
|
FL+OH+VA |
|
60 |
|
FL+OH+WI |
|
57 |
FL+OH+CO |
|
56 |
|
FL+OH+IA |
|
53 |
|
FL+OH+NV |
|
53 |
FL+OH+NH |
|
51 |
|
FL+NC+VA |
|
57 |
|
FL+NC+WI |
|
54 |
FL+NC+CO |
|
53 |
|
FL+NC+IA |
|
50 |
|
FL+NC+NV |
|
50 |
FL+NC+NH |
|
48 |
|
FL+VA+WI |
|
52 |
|
FL+VA+CO |
|
51 |
FL+VA+IA |
|
48 |
|
FL+VA+NV |
|
48 |
|
FL+VA+NH |
|
46 |
FL+WI+CO |
|
48 |
|
FL+WI+IA |
|
45 |
|
FL+WI+NV |
|
45 |
FL+WI+NH |
|
43 |
|
FL+CO+IA |
|
44 |
|
FL+CO+NV |
|
44 |
FL+CO+NH |
|
42 |
|
FL+IA+NV |
|
41 |
|
FL+IA+NH |
|
39 |
FL+NV+NH |
|
39 |
|
OH+NC+VA |
|
46 |
|
OH+NC+WI |
|
43 |
OH+NC+CO |
|
42 |
|
OH+NC+IA |
|
39 |
|
OH+NC+NV |
|
39 |
OH+NC+NH |
|
37 |
|
OH+VA+WI |
|
41 |
|
OH+VA+CO |
|
40 |
OH+VA+IA |
|
37 |
|
OH+VA+NV |
|
37 |
|
OH+VA+NH |
|
35 |
OH+WI+CO |
|
37 |
|
OH+WI+IA |
|
34 |
|
OH+WI+NV |
|
34 |
OH+WI+NH |
|
32 |
|
OH+CO+IA |
|
33 |
|
OH+CO+NV |
|
33 |
OH+CO+NH |
|
31 |
|
OH+IA+NV |
|
30 |
|
OH+IA+NH |
|
28 |
OH+NV+NH |
|
28 |
|
NC+VA+WI |
|
38 |
|
NC+VA+CO |
|
37 |
NC+VA+IA |
|
34 |
|
NC+VA+NV |
|
34 |
|
NC+VA+NH |
|
32 |
NC+WI+CO |
|
34 |
|
NC+WI+IA |
|
31 |
|
NC+WI+NV |
|
31 |
NC+WI+NH |
|
29 |
|
NC+CO+IA |
|
30 |
|
NC+CO+NV |
|
30 |
NC+CO+NH |
|
28 |
|
NC+IA+NV |
|
27 |
|
NC+IA+NH |
|
27 |
NC+NV+NH |
|
25 |
|
VA+WI+CO |
|
32 |
|
VA+WI+IA |
|
29 |
VA+WI+NV |
|
29 |
|
VA+WI+NH |
|
27 |
|
VA+CO+IA |
|
28 |
VA+CO+NV |
|
28 |
|
VA+CO+NH |
|
26 |
|
VA+IA+NV |
|
25 |
VA+IA+NH |
|
23 |
|
VA+NV+NH |
|
23 |
|
WI+CO+IA |
|
25 |
WI+CO+NV |
|
25 |
|
WI+CO+NH |
|
23 |
|
WI+IA+NV |
|
22 |
WI+IA+NH |
|
20 |
|
WI+NV+NH |
|
20 |
|
CO+IA+NV |
|
21 |
CO+IA+NH |
|
19 |
|
CO+NV+NH |
|
19 |
|
IA+NV+NH |
|
16 |
President Obama Wins Four States |
|
33 Electoral Votes Needed |
|
|
|
Wins if FL is one of them
Wins if OH is one of them
Wins if NC is one of them EXCEPT NC+IA+NV+NH (loss)
Wins if VA and WI are two of them
Wins if VA+CO+IA+NV
|
|
|
|
|
Ties if VA+CO+IA+NH
Ties if VA+CO+NV+NH
|
|
|
|
|
If President Obama gets 1 Electoral Vote from Nebraska
|
|
|
Wins if VA+CO+IA+NH
Wins if VA+CO+NV+NH
|
|
|
Ties if NC+IA+NV+NH
Ties if WI+CO+IA+NV
|
|
|
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
States |
|
EVs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FL+OH+NC+VA |
|
75 |
|
FL+OH+NC+WI |
|
72 |
|
FL+OH+NC+CO |
|
71 |
|
FL+OH+NC+IA |
|
68 |
|
FL+OH+NC+NV |
|
68 |
|
FL+OH+NC+NH |
|
66 |
|
FL+OH+VA+WI |
|
70 |
|
FL+OH+VA+CO |
|
69 |
|
FL+OH+VA+IA |
|
66 |
|
FL+OH+VA+NV |
|
66 |
|
FL+OH+VA+NH |
|
64 |
|
FL+OH+WI+CO |
|
66 |
|
FL+OH+WI+IA |
|
63 |
|
FL+OH+WI+NV |
|
63 |
|
FL+OH+WI+NH |
|
61 |
|
FL+OH+CO+IA |
|
62 |
|
FL+OH+CO+NV |
|
62 |
|
FL+OH+CO+NH |
|
60 |
|
FL+OH+IA+NV |
|
59 |
|
FL+OH+IA+NH |
|
57 |
|
FL+OH+NV+NH |
|
57 |
|
FL+NC+VA+WI |
|
67 |
|
FL+NC+VA+CO |
|
66 |
|
FL+NC+VA+IA |
|
63 |
|
FL+NC+VA+NV |
|
63 |
|
FL+NC+VA+NH |
|
61 |
|
FL+NC+WI+CO |
|
63 |
|
FL+NC+WI+IA |
|
60 |
|
FL+NC+WI+NV |
|
60 |
|
FL+NC+WI+NH |
|
58 |
|
FL+NC+CO+IA |
|
59 |
|
FL+NC+CO+NV |
|
59 |
|
FL+NC+CO+NH |
|
57 |
|
FL+NC+IA+NV |
|
56 |
|
FL+NC+IA+NH |
|
54 |
|
FL+NC+NV+NH |
|
54 |
|
FL+VA+WI+CO |
|
61 |
|
FL+VA+WI+IA |
|
58 |
|
FL+VA+WI+NV |
|
58 |
|
FL+VA+WI+NH |
|
56 |
|
FL+VA+CO+IA |
|
57 |
|
FL+VA+CO+NV |
|
57 |
|
FL+VA+CO+NH |
|
55 |
|
FL+VA+IA+NV |
|
54 |
|
FL+VA+IA+NH |
|
52 |
|
FL+VA+NV+NH |
|
52 |
|
FL+WI+CO+IA |
|
54 |
|
FL+WI+CO+NV |
|
54 |
|
FL+WI+CO+NH |
|
52 |
|
FL+WI+IA+NV |
|
51 |
|
FL+WI+IA+NH |
|
49 |
|
FL+WI+NV+NH |
|
49 |
|
FL+CO+IA+NV |
|
50 |
|
FL+CO+IA+NH |
|
48 |
|
FL+CO+NV+NH |
|
48 |
|
FL+IA+NV+NH |
|
45 |
|
OH+NC+VA+WI |
|
56 |
|
OH+NC+VA+CO |
|
55 |
|
OH+NC+VA+IA |
|
52 |
|
OH+NC+VA+NV |
|
52 |
|
OH+NC+VA+NH |
|
50 |
|
OH+NC+WI+CO |
|
52 |
|
OH+NC+WI+IA |
|
49 |
|
OH+NC+WI+NV |
|
49 |
|
OH+NC+WI+NH |
|
46 |
|
OH+NC+CO+IA |
|
48 |
|
OH+NC+CO+NV |
|
48 |
|
OH+NC+CO+NH |
|
46 |
|
OH+NC+IA+NV |
|
45 |
|
OH+NC+IA+NH |
|
43 |
|
OH+NC+NV+NH |
|
43 |
|
OH+VA+WI+CO |
|
50 |
|
OH+VA+WI+IA |
|
47 |
|
OH+VA+WI+NV |
|
47 |
|
OH+VA+WI+NH |
|
45 |
|
OH+VA+CO+IA |
|
46 |
|
OH+VA+CO+NV |
|
46 |
|
OH+VA+CO+NH |
|
44 |
|
OH+VA+IA+NV |
|
43 |
|
OH+VA+IA+NH |
|
41 |
|
OH+VA+NV+NH |
|
41 |
|
OH+WI+CO+IA |
|
43 |
|
OH+WI+CO+NV |
|
43 |
|
OH+WI+CO+NH |
|
41 |
|
OH+WI+IA+NV |
|
40 |
|
OH+WI+IA+NH |
|
38 |
|
OH+WI+NV+NH |
|
38 |
|
OH+CO+IA+NV |
|
39 |
|
OH+CO+IA+NH |
|
37 |
|
OH+CO+NV+NH |
|
37 |
|
OH+IA+NV+NH |
|
34 |
|
NC+VA+WI+CO |
|
47 |
|
NC+VA+WI+IA |
|
44 |
|
NC+VA+WI+NV |
|
44 |
|
NC+VA+WI+NH |
|
42 |
|
NC+VA+CO+IA |
|
43 |
|
NC+VA+CO+NV |
|
43 |
|
NC+VA+CO+NH |
|
41 |
|
NC+VA+IA+NV |
|
40 |
|
NC+VA+IA+NH |
|
38 |
|
NC+VA+NV+NH |
|
38 |
|
NC+WI+CO+IA |
|
40 |
|
NC+WI+CO+NV |
|
40 |
|
NC+WI+CO+NH |
|
38 |
|
NC+WI+IA+NV |
|
37 |
|
NC+WI+IA+NH |
|
35 |
|
NC+WI+NV+NH |
|
35 |
|
NC+CO+IA+NV |
|
36 |
|
NC+CO+IA+NH |
|
34 |
|
NC+CO+NV+NH |
|
34 |
|
NC+IA+NV+NH |
|
31 |
|
VA+WI+CO+IA |
|
38 |
|
VA+WI+CO+NV |
|
38 |
|
VA+WI+CO+NH |
|
36 |
|
VA+WI+IA+NV |
|
35 |
|
VA+WI+IA+NH |
|
33 |
|
VA+WI+NV+NH |
|
33 |
|
VA+CO+IA+NV |
|
34 |
|
VA+CO+IA+NH |
|
32 |
|
VA+CO+NV+NH |
|
32 |
|
VA+IA+NV+NH |
|
29 |
|
WI+CO+IA+NV |
|
31 |
|
WI+CO+IA+NH |
|
29 |
|
WI+CO+NV+NH |
|
29 |
|
WI+IA+NV+NH |
|
26 |
|
CO+IA+NV+NH |
|
25 |
|