If as I do you follow Latino Decisions, you would yesterday have found out that 8 percent of Latinos have already voted early, enthusiasm up again in final week. There are some important takeaways in this post and the related polling data upon which I would like to focus:
Forty-five percent of Latino voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012 compared to 2008. That number is up from 37% from ten weeks ago when the initial impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking poll was fielded. Furthermore, 87% of Latino voters say they are almost certain they will vote on November 6th, which includes 8% of Latino voters have already voted. In 2008, 84% of Latino registered voters cast a ballot according to Census statistics.
Some had worried that Latino enthusiasm might drop, as many had not been happy with the rate of deportations under this administration. But the President acting to implement parts of the Dream Act by Executive Order, and reaction against the Arizona anti-immigrant law, and things like Romney supporting that bill, using its author KS Secretary of State Kris Kobach as an advisor on immigration, and continuing to use terminology about illegals.
Overall, Obama has the support of 73% of all Latino registered voters, compared to 21% who favor Romney. The 52-point gap matches the largest gap among Latinos this year, also found in the October 1 tracking poll.
Assume several factors.
1. Most national and state polls understate Latino participation.
2. Assume something close to the current distribution of Latino vote between the two candidates - which would mean Romney winds up with less than 1/4 of that vote, a significant drop from what McCain got
3. Assume some level of increase in number and percentage of the Latino vote
Not only will this mean that NV stays Blue, I think despite current polling it means CO will as well, and still could bring AZ into play. It may well be enough to push Carmona over Flake for the vacant R AZ Senate Seat. And it could have some incremental effect in both VA and NC.
As a side note - PPP actually had Romney winning the Latino vote in FL, although Obama carried it in 2008. The increase in Latinos in FL has been Puerto Ricans and others who tilt Dem and not older Cubans who tilt Repub. Thus current polling MAY understate Obama's strength in the Sunshine state because it does not fully account for his Latino support therein.