Mitt Romney was the clear winner in tonight's debate. Was there a game-changing moment? No. Will this debate change the trajectory of the race in a major way? Probably not. But did Romney help himself get back in the race tonight? Absolutely, yes. And will he probably get a boost in the polls from this debate? Probably, yes.
Full thoughts below...
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
* Some real damage was done to Obama tonight, largely from his own doing. He showed little life. He did not command the stage. He didn't seem strong. He did not seem to be all that interested. He came off like he didn't want to be there, like he was annoyed having to take part in debate and explain himself. Like Bush in 2004, Obama obviously did not like being criticized to his face. He passed up countless opportunities to land blows, let Romney off the hook many time. He may have underestimated Romney. His body language was bad. I think it was clear that Romney came in with a strategy to be aggressive and score points. Obama had a more conversational style that flopped because it made him seem passive. But the fact that Obama let Romney get away with so much is going to hurt. Romney, largely because Obama didn't push back much, seemed like the guy with a plan. And Romney got away with a lot of misleading statements that Obama never fought back on.
* Romney seemed like the alpha-male on stage. He was the aggressor, he was the one looking to land blows, he was sharp, he was prepared. He stared at Obama (albeit with a weird stalker-ish grin) while Obama spoke, as oppose to Obama who looked down or to the side as Romney spoke. Obama also often nodded while Romney spoke, giving off the impression that what Romney was saying was correct and that he agreed. Romney did cut off Lehrer a few times and seemed almost over-eager at times. He also seemed a bit agitated in the first segment when Obama kept repeating that Romney wants a $5 trillion tax cut. But overall, the plusses outweighed the minuses.
* Up until tonight, Obama has seemed like the fighter in this campaign, like the guy who cares. None of that was evident tonight. In fact, Romney seemed more like a fighter and like a guy who cared and Obama seemed like a guy who wanted to play nice and not throw a punch. Romney was strong tonight, he exuded strength. Obama didn't. The "middle class fighter" image that Obama had built up had led to him generating big leads with middle class voters, and I think Romney may have hacked into that a bit tonight by being the guy with fire and passion on stage. Americans want to see their Presidential candidates fight for the job. Up until tonight, Obama had been winning that contest in the eyes of most. Tonight, Romney seemed like he wanted it a lot more than Obama did.
* Obama scored a few points, particularly on Romney not revealing specifics of his plans. That was the only topic that Obama seemed to play offense on. Otherwise, he got so bogged down in the weeds of long, sometimes unclear explanations of things. He was completely back in the professorial mode that hurt him in the early part of the 2008 Democratic primary. You saw tonight why he trailed Hilary Clinton by 30% for awhile. This is exactly how he debated several times in 2008 before he finally learned to condense answers and deliver them in an easy to understand way. Maybe Obama was rusty, it's hard to say. But it was not an inspired performance.
* Obama was so bland and lifeless that you almost have to wonder if he is overconfident at this point. What is he seeing in his internal polls that made him feel he should play it safe tonight? Has he calculated that only a huge gaffe from him can change things now? And to just make sure he avoids one? That's one potential explanation for why he was so passive tonight.
* I will say this. Romney again revealed himself tonight as a guy who will say anything to win. He suddenly was acting appalled by the very idea of tax cuts for the rich, defending his healthcare plan, vouching for the poor and middle class, lurching way to the center out of nowhere, etc. All things he has not done at all and in fact has done the opposite of for the past 18 months. And yet, Obama let him off the hook every single time. He didn't press back against any of Romney's somewhat misleading statements. It's pretty easy to win an election if one guy says whatever people want to hear, and other guy lets him do so. Romney seemed more like the moderate Massachusetts Romney tonight than the far-right borderline-Tea Party Romney that we've seen for the past two years. Usually that type of flip-flopping gets you killed. But Obama just kind of shrugged and let Romney get away with it.
* The Obama campaign had defined Romney in such an effective way up until tonight so it was surprising to see Obama not follow up on any of it. No mention of the 47% video. No mention of Bain outsourcing jobs. No aggressive pushback on Romney's sudden policy shifts on tax cuts and healthcare. No portrayal of Romney as a rich guy who is not in touch with the middle class. Nothing. Obama allowed Romney to present himself as a guy who is nothing like the guy Obama had successfully defined him as.
* Obama even seemed a bit rattled at times, almost surprised that Romney was being as aggressive as he was. Obama is usually very composed in his speaking, but he was stumbling over his words in his closing statement, even seemed a bit defeated. The closing statement itself seemed very uninspiring and lackluster. This from the same guy who has delivered some of the most inspiring words in political history in the past.
* Obama's tepid performance may demoralize Democrats a bit. The Democrats had worked extremely hard to get their enthusiasm up to levels that rival Republicans, but I think Obama's performance tonight may damper that enthusiasm, at least for now. The Obama campaign will need to do something to try and rally their base again after tonight.
* The one silver lining for Obama is that Romney, while clearly the winner, did not get that "moment" I talked about that sticks with people and changes their views. There was no highlight from this debate that will be played next week or the week beyond. There was no moment where the real Romney came through and seemed more likable. And Romney is probably going to need that moment if he wants to win.
* Jim Lehrer did an atrocious job of moderating. He served no purpose at all, never pressed either candidate on anything, and basically just let the candidates take turns exchanging talking points. That being said, Lehrer wanted the candidates to engage each other, and Obama simply chose not to press Romney on most of what he said.
* The instant polls pointed to a clear Romney win. The CBS instant poll had 46% saying Romney won, 22% saying Obama, and 32% said it was a tie. CNN's instant poll found 67% thought Romney won, 25% thought Obama won. That is a decisive win for Romney that should help him in the polls in the coming days and weeks.
So the first debate is over. I think the biggest damage done to Obama tonight is he didn't seem like the middle class fighter he had built himself up to be, while Romney did seem like the fighter that he never seemed to be before. Obama didn't seem strong, Romney did. Obama also let a lot of Romney's claims go unpressed and he let Romney come off like a guy with a plan. So will this debate move the polls? It's hard to say for sure, but I think it will. We've seen a slight tightening of the polls over the past few days, and I would expect that to continue now, especially in the national numbers. Romney will also probably get a bit of a boost in swing states, as the instant polls of the debate showed him to be a pretty decisive winner tonight and showed that people now viewed him more favorably, not just personally, but on virtually every issue from taxes to healthcare to the economy. I don't expect the fundamental place where the race is -- Obama in a fairly comfortable electoral college position -- to change dramatically, but Romney should gain some from this debate and put some pressure back on Obama to fight more for this.
I said before the debate that Romney needed a home run tonight. Did he get one? No. But he got a triple. He didn't create that game-changing moment. But he was the clear winner and did a lot to change how people view him. He showed passion and fight. He'll now need another strong debate performance in two weeks, but Obama now needs one just as bad. One thing we have seen often is incumbent Presidents struggle in their first debate. John Kerry, for example, had a clear victory over George W. Bush in their first debate in 2004, and got a nice bounce out of it. But Bush won the next two and went on to win the race. Tonight's flop of a performance should put some pressure on Obama and maybe that's what he needs to show more fight in the next debate.
Romney has now gotten past a month of bad news and regained some momentum. If the jobs report is bad on Friday, it'll give him another spark. How he follows it up now on the campaign trail will be crucial. He has got to maintain this momentum. But that's tomorrow's problem. No doubt that tonight was Romney's best moment of this campaign so far.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.