http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
No text from Nate yet, but...
Current chance:
Obama: 77.4%
Romney: 22.6%
Nowcast:
Obama: 79.5%
Romney: 20.5%
No raw numbers from Nate yet, but it looks like a narrowing race in Florida combined with better numbers in Virginia, solidification in Ohio and Nevada all moved things in the postive direction.
This is all pre-storm polling too.