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Leading Off:
• FL-02, FL-10: Unexpected developments in two Florida races that had previously seemed like distant pickup opportunities for Democrats have prompted us to revise our ratings for the state's 2nd and 10th Congressional Districts. In both cases, we're moving the contests from Likely R to Lean R, as befits their new, more competitive status. Read below in our "Race Ratings" section for the rationales behind these changes, and scroll further down to house "House" section for specific news on the polling and outside spending that's changing the picture in each case.
Race Ratings:
We're making a dozen race ratings changes this week, to all three of our charts: Senate, House, and Governor. In total, eight moves favor Democrats and four favor Republicans.
• AZ-Sen (Lean R to Tossup): It's hard to believe we're here, but we are: Arizona's open Senate race is in tossup territory. A run of polls has shown Democrat Rich Carmona neck-and-neck with Rep. Jeff Flake, who is running well behind his fellow Republican at the top of the ticket, Mitt Romney. Now, both the DSCC and NRSC are advertising here, the ultimate hallmark of a competitive race. Arizona's demographics probably still point to a slight edge for the GOP, but this seat is very much up-for-grabs.
• FL-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): It's funny how savior candidates work out sometimes: After Rep. Connie Mack unexpectedly bailed on a Senate run, the GOP was left with a field of third-tier hacks—so weak, in fact, that the establishment prevailed on Mack to change his mind (again) and run after all. Only Mack didn't prove to be much better than the existing options, with his weak fundraising and Animal House pedigree. National Republicans have largely given up any hope of beating Dem Sen. Bill Nelson, who's held very comfortable leads in all recent polling.
• MI-Sen (Lean D to Likely D): Yeah, once upon a time, a few conservative pundits conned themselves into believing ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra was a top-tier recruit. But after he shot both of his own feet off with his unforgettably disastrous "Debbie Spend-it-now" Super Bowl ad, only the most obstinate analysts could fail to realize Republicans had a serious problem on their hands. Hoekstra, as ever, remained a poor fundraiser and a lousy candidate, and Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow's poll numbers have been strong. Mitt Romney's inability to compete in Michigan ("Let Detroit Go Bankrupt") hasn't helped matters for the GOP, either.
• WA-Sen (Likely D to Safe D): Republicans don't have much of a bench in Washington, but they came up particularly light on the Senate recruitment front this cycle. State Sen. Michael Baumgartner's raised bupkes, polls show Dem Sen. Maria Cantwell totally dominant, and the national GOP has never so much as hinted they think there's anything doing here.
• IN-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats did a good job recruiting former state House Speaker John Gregg for this open seat, but GOP Rep. Mike Pence is himself a very strong candidate who has raised scads of money. Just as importantly, Indiana's red hue has reasserted itself, and despite winning the state four years ago, Barack Obama isn't spending money here this time. And while the Senate race is unusually promising for Team Blue, Republicans nominated a very damaged and very flawed Richard Mourdock. They aren't suffering from the same problems in the governor's race, and national groups haven't shown any interest in coming in to help out Gregg.
• NC-Gov (Lean R to Likely R): We tried to give Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton every benefit of the doubt, based largely on some polls taken after he won the Democratic nomination that showed him closing the gap with Republican Pat McCrory. But more recent polling has shown the Democrat consistently down double digits. The DGA (and the RGA, too) have been on the air here recently, but it's just about impossible to see a path to victory for Dalton. Fairly or not, he seems to be weighed down by the albatross that is Bev Perdue, North Carolina's very unpopular outgoing governor. "Likely R" almost seems generous at this point.
• WA-Gov (Tossup to Lean D): After a spring and early summer where it looked like Democrat Jay Inslee was never going to break out of trailing by mid-single-digits, the tables have completely turned in the last few months, and now Inslee routinely leads the polls by mid-single-digits instead. And that includes the most important "poll" of all, August's top-two primary, which functions as a kind of super-poll with a sample size over one million and an "actual voter" screen; Inslee won that round over Rob McKenna 47-43. It seems like the affable Inslee finally broke through the clutter at right around the same time that people started realizing that, smart as he may seem, McKenna just isn't that likeable. (David Jarman)
• AR-01 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrats did pretty much everything wrong in Arkansas this cycle, from not bothering to draft a decent map in redistricting to letting Mike Ross announce his retirement after the map-making process was complete. Above it all, though, are Team Blue's massive recruitment failures, which yielded weak candidates in all three districts held by Democrats until just a cycle ago: the 1st, 2nd, and 4th. AR-01 held perhaps the last bit of promise, but GOP Rep. Rick Crawford's absolutely swamped prosecutor Scott Ellington on the fundraising front, leaving Ellington with peanuts. A recent independent poll showed the incumbent up 53-28, and national Dems have shown little interest in Ellington's candidacy.
• FL-02 (Likely R to Lean R): We're as surprised as anyone to be making this move, especially since we made the reverse change at the end of August. But we were wrong about the DCCC's interest in this race, and now both party committees are spending here. And it all seems sparked by a newly-released D-Trip internal from mid-September that has the contest tied between GOP Rep. Steve Southerland and Democrat Al Lawson. This is still tough territory that's home to a lot of conservative Dems, but FL-02 is now officially interesting.
• FL-10 (Likely R to Lean R): GOP Rep. Daniel Webster got a lot of help in redistricting, seeing his seat shift from +6 Obama to +5 McCain. But Democrats landed a strong recruit in former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, who has actually outraised Webster by a healthy margin and has more cash in the bank. Dem-aligned groups (the House Majority PAC, SEIU, and EMILY's List) must think there's a real chance here, since they've spent $600K already, with nary a penny from the GOP. So Republicans either feel supremely confident, or they're taking a major risk here (or perhaps they're about to start shelling out dough). Either way, a new DCCC poll showed Demings behind by 46-41, and Wesbter's response was... non-responsive. An upset is definitely possible here.
• FL-26 (Tossup to Lean D): GOP Rep. David Rivera is all but doomed. Even though he managed to skate on a series of ethics charges, he apparently couldn't help but keep up his crooked ways and illegally bankrolled a fake candidate in the Democratic primary to harry Joe Garcia. Garcia won the nomination anyway, and now the whole scandal has blown up—and taken Rivera down with it. With a series of polls showing the Democrat with dominant leads, local Republicans are openly casting about for a candidate to take on Garcia in 2014.
• NJ-07 (Likely R to Safe R): Deputy Assembly Speaker Upendra Chivukula seemed like an interesting recruit for Democrats, particularly since he's shown an ability to tap into the strong network of Indian-American donors eager to send one of their number back to Congress. But it would probably take a wave election to unseat GOP Rep. Leonard Lance, who saw his district get shored up by about eight points in redistricting. Outside groups have not gotten involved here.
3Q Fundraising:
• CT-Sen: Chris Murphy (D): $3 mil raised
• WA-Sen: Maria Cantwell (D-inc): $1 mil raised, $2 mil cash-on-hand
• AZ-09: Kyrsten Sinema (D): $775K raised, "somewhere north of" $275K cash-on-hand
• CT-05: Andrew Roraback (R): $555K raised
• FL-10: Val Demings (D): $500K raised
• FL-13: Bill Young (R-inc): $408K raised
• NH-02: Annie Kuster (D): $720K raised
• NY-27: Kathy Hochul (D-inc): $730K raised
• WI-01: Paul Ryan (R-inc): $567K raised, $4 mil cash-on-hand; Rob Zerban: $770K raised
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: Politico's Alexander Burns reports that the DSCC is doubling down on its TV expenditures on behalf of Democrat Rich Carmona, throwing in another half mil on top of the $526K they've already invested to bang up Jeff Flake. On top of that, Burns says the DS has spent $500K in coordinated (as opposed to independent) expenditures, working in concert with the Carmona campaign. That number sounds a bit too high, though, since according to the FEC, the 2012 limit in Arizona is $443K.
• IN-Sen: Another Democratic group has just jumped into the Indiana Senate race on behalf of Rep. Joe Donnelly: The veterans group VoteVets, which is spending $300K to air a new TV ad. On one level, it's similar to a devastating new Majority PAC spot that slams Richard "Howlin' Mad" Mourdock for saying "I didn't take a pledge that I would support every job in Indiana" and then castigating him for fighting the Chrysler bailout. The VoteVets ad cites the same issues, but it's narrated by an Iraq & Afghanistan vet who delivers some serious added oomph, saying that Mourdock "would have killed thousands of jobs here—jobs that returning veterans like me could use." Damn.
• NM-Sen: Environmental groups seem to have put a particular premium on the New Mexico Senate race there, and we have yet another poll of the race funded by a coalition of enviro orgs and taken by PPP. This race is just remarkably consistent (with the exception of that stray "I'm not dead yet" internal from Heather Wilson recently), almost always producing an 8-10 pt. lead for Dem Martin Heinrich over the last few months. This poll is no exception, with Heinrich up 51-41. Top of the ticket, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-43. (David Jarman)
• VA-Sen: Even the Razmanian Devil is finding that Democratic ex-Gov. Tim Kaine is gaining some momentum in the Virginia Senate race, starting to outpace Barack Obama considerably. In the same Oct. 4 sample that had Obama trailing Mitt Romney by 1, Rasmussen also finds Kaine leading George Allen 52-45. (A month ago they had it at Kaine 47, Allen 45.) (David Jarman)
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Gubernatorial:
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House:
• FL-02: Hel-lo! Here's the poll we've been looking for: As the DCCC started unexpectedly advertising in FL-02 and then the NRCC followed suit, we wondered if this was a head-fake or if something was actually stirring here. Well, according to the D-Trip's new internal from Lester & Associates, we may have a legit race on our hands. They show GOP freshman Steve Southerland tied at just 43 with Democrat Al Lawson—a pretty good place for Lawson to be and a rather bad spot for Southerland. The presidential toplines are very believable, with Romney leading Obama 47-46 (McCain won 52-47). Interestingly, the poll was taken mid-September, which suggests that the DCCC may have wanted to sneak on to the air before making it clear just how competitive this race is. We'll just have to see how Republicans respond.
• FL-10: House Majority PAC and the SEIU have ponied up $215K apiece on an ad buy slamming GOP Rep. Daniel Webster on Medicare. Coming on top of $160K spent by EMILY's List on this race, that adds up to around $600K spent in total by Democratic-affiliated groups in this district, with no commensurate Republican response. While it may have looked like Webster would escape a serious threat after the redistricting process gifted him with a more favorable district (one that Obama lost by 5% in 2008), it seems that Democrats are still high on the candidacy of former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings. This is definitely a race to keep on your watch list. (James L)
• FL-18: Being a Republican seems like it's always an adventure in cognitive dissonance, and Friday found them pivoting from substituting an alternate polling reality to an alternate jobs-calculating reality. (Rather than calling them "jobs truthers" or some such, we're just going to call them Welchers.) At any rate, if you were to guess that Allen West would be the first elected Republican to jump on that train... well, that would be completely predictable, so you don't win anything. (David Jarman)
• HI-01, HI-02: The race in HI-01, where GOP accidental half-term Rep. Charles Djou is running a rematch against Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, has been easily the cycle's sleepiest member-vs.-ex-member race, but it's suddenly on people's minds, thanks to a Civil Beat poll from Merriman River Group. It finds Hanabusa leading Djou only 49-44. Considering that Merriman River has had a Hawaii track record can politely be called "erratic," though, and also the fact that the national committees haven't shown a peep of interest here, this poll kind of smells like a misfire. More support for that theory... Merriman River's director effectively agrees:
"I think Djou's numbers are artificially inflated," said Matt Fitch, executive director of Merriman River Group, which partners with Civil Beat on its polls. "It wouldn't surprise me to see Hanabusa win by a very comfortable margin."
Meanwhile, the open seat race over in HI-02 (which you might expect, given that it's open, to be more competitive) looks like a total blowout. Dem Tulsi Gabbard is leading GOPer Kawika Crowley by a 70-18 margin. Given the indifference with which Hawaiians seem to treat the borders between their two districts, you've gotta wonder if Djou—who this poll suggests still has some goodwill left over—might have been better off pursuing the open seat here instead of seeking vengeance against Hanabusa. (David Jarman)
• IL-08: I guess we should be glad they picked such a pointless target: Now or Never PAC, the conservative outfit that was once singularly devoted to winning the Missouri GOP Senate nomination for Sarah Steelman, has of late turned to helping Joe Walsh, of all people, in his nearly hopeless re-election race against Democrat Tammy Duckworth. And they've now spent a monster $1.75 million on that endeavor—something I'm sure Duckworth doesn't appreciate in the least, but polling still shows her set to win handily, and I'll bet the DCCC is breathing a sigh of relief that Now or Never has chosen to target this race rather than one more marginal for Team Blue. And it hasn't been smooth sailing for the super PAC, which had to go back and re-do its most recent ad after it got yanked off the air for containing falsehoods.
• IL-12: On the one hand, We Ask America (the polling arm of the Illinois Manufacturers' Association) made their bones with some prescient polling of Illinois House races in the 2010 cycle. On the other hand, they've been stinking up the joint with some R-leaning swing state polls this year. With that in mind, I'll leave it to you to decide how much weight to give their new poll of the open 12th, where they find Republican Jason Plummer leading Dem Bill Enyart 44-40. (That contrasts with a poll for House Majority PAC that had Enyart up 8... and another sketchily-reported Democratic poll from that apparently has Enyart up 3.) (David Jarman)
• MA-06: I'd expect that the National Education Association has a few civics teachers among its members, so maybe they explained to their leadership how that whole majority-rules thing works in the House. At any rate, the NEA is finally putting some money behind an actual Democrat (and even in a race where the opposition is one of those smiley-faced, non-insane Republicans). They're putting down $500K on Dem John Tierney's behalf, with an ad buy against Richard Tisei. (You'll recall that they recently spent a similar amount on behalf of Illinois Republican Judy Biggert, hence our pique.) (David Jarman)
• VA-02: This is rough stuff for pushback, but whatcha gonna do? In response to a Thursday internal from GOP Rep. Scott Rigell that had him up 54-32, Democrat Paul Hirschbiel is offering up his own poll (from Benenson) that has him losing by "only" 49-40. Seeing as Hirschbiel's poll was actually taken a couple of weeks before Rigell's, he presumably realized they weren't the kind of numbers you want to share—until Rigell made it absolutely necessary to do so. Hirschbiel says that a previously unreleased poll from June had him losing 51-31, so sure, he's improved his standing somewhat. But when your opponent is at 49 even in your own poll, that's not an optimistic sign.
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CA-24: Abel Maldonado (R)
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CA-36: Mary Bono Mack (R)
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CA-39: America Shining (D) (in Chinese)
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FL-02: DCCC (D)
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FL-02: DCCC (D)
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FL-18: Allen West (R)
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IA-01: Bruce Braley (D)
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IA-03: Tom Latham (R)
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IL-08: Tammy Duckworth (D)
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IL-08: Tammy Duckworth (D)
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IL-11: Chamber of Commerce (R)
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IL-12: Chamber of Commerce (R)
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IL-17: Bobby Schilling (D)
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IL-17: Chamber of Commerce (R)
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IN-02: Brendan Mullen (D)
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IN-02: Jackie Walorski (R)
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MA-06: Chamber of Commerce (R)
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ME-02: Kevin Raye (R)
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NY-19: SEIU (D)
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NY-21: Matt Doheny (R)
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OH-16: Betty Sutton (D)
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TX-14: Nick Lampson (D)
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WA-06: Derek Kilmer (D)
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WI-01: Rob Zerban (D)
Other Races:
• CA Ballot: Something tells me that this is not what the well-intentioned Progressives envisioned a century ago. A new piece in Capitol Weekly underscores how well-funded donors are pouring nearly endless amounts of cash into the slate of popular initiatives (called "propositions" in California) in hopes of either securing or denying passage. The biggest spender is actually on the left-of-center, as wealthy attorney Molly Munger has thrown $28 million in support of her tax initiative, which is racing with a competing measure boosted by Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown.
The exceptionally deceptive "reform" measure known as Prop. 32, which would greatly curtail union participation in elective politics while leaving corporate entities essentially untouched, has predictably seen a boatload of money sent its way, as well. Among the benefactors? None other than the Koch brothers, who just tossed an additional seven-figure donation into the kitty. And lest you think that money in these initiative battles isn't everything, I would ask you to reflect back just four short months ago, when a $40+ million ad blitz by the tobacco industry managed to smother an increase in the cigarette tax in California, as it was narrowly defeated in the June primary. (Steve Singiser)
Grab Bag:
• Campaign Finance: In a surprising ruling, a federal judge struck down Montana's campaign finance contribution limits, just a month before election day. As Rick Hasen notes, the judge offered little in the way of explanation, only promising a lengthier opinion at some point in the future, which leads Hasen to think that the state's chances of getting an emergency stay at the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals are pretty good. It's also a chance for Dem AG Steve Bullock, who is running for governor, to once again make an issue out of the huge sums of outside money pouring into Montana elections. If the ruling stands, though, it would certainly hurt Bullock and other Democrats; while, as I say, third-party groups have been spending heavily, campaigns are entitled to much cheaper advertising rates, which is why conservative interests are fighting Montana's laws in the first place.