It's finally just about here. Election Eve. I am confident that Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States if we all vote and GOTV!
Here's one reason why:
It appears that President Obama is likely to go into Election Day with a very modest lead in the average of national polls.
As of this writing, on Sunday evening, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.3 percentage points across 12 national polls that had been published over the course of the prior 24 hours.
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On Saturday, we wrote that state polls would have to be statistically biased against Mr. Romney for him to win the Electoral College. Now, it may be the case that the national polls would have to be biased against him as well.
NY Times, Nate Silver
The latest probabilities:
86.3% Chance of Winning for Obama
+11.7 since Oct. 28
13.7% Chance of Winning for Romney
-11.7 since Oct. 28
Another reason; the undecideds are breaking toward Obama!
Let’s start with a quick reality check. In the national vote, HuffPollster’s poll-of-polls average currently has it at Barack Obama 48.0 percent, Mitt Romney 46.8 percent. That’s a real shift towards Obama over the last week, and has brought the election from a very close one where it was fairly easy to envision a Romney win to one where the polls have to be wrong by an unusual margin.
Meanwhile, their state-by-state polling averages have Obama leading in states with 277 electoral votes, with another 26 electoral votes in toss-up states in which Obama has a very slim lead — and that’s not including Florida, which is basically a dead heat. The truth is that there’s been hardly any good polling news for Romney over the last several days and quite a bit of good news for the Obama campaign.
WaPo, The Plum Line, Jonathan Bernstein
More:
In sum, this Electoral vote scenario requires Romney to win the 23 seats where he is expected to win (McCain’s 22, plus Indiana), then North Carolina, Florida and Virginia; all three are hotly contested and very close. Then he must win four states where Obama is currently ahead, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and either Nevada or Ohio. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are out of Romney's reach. Romney winning Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and either Nevada or Ohio, at this point, looks extremely difficult.
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Romney’s momentum seemed to run out of gas about ten days ago and before Hurricane/Tropical Storm Sandy hit. The race stabilized at roughly even [national polls], but it appears that Obama has been rising a bit over the last few days as Romney has dropped some. This is possibly related to Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy, and his bi-partisan storm damage tour with New Jersey’s GOP Gov. Chris Christie.
Cook Political Report
Here's yet another reason. Our volunteers are volunteers who believe in the rightness of our cause. Romney's GOTV is privatized, relying on paid employees. Bet it's non-union. Maybe even outsourced/off shored, except for door knocking. :-)
There’s so much secret money in conservative politics that even volunteers are getting paid — and paid well.
Grassroots activists who used to knock on doors and make phone calls for free are the latest beneficiaries of the historic spending spree to defeat President Barack Obama and elect GOP lawmakers.
Deep-pocketed nonprofit groups — funded by unlimited, and mostly undisclosed, contributions — are offering canvassers and phone bankers wages upwards of $15 an hour and dangling perks such as performances by 3 Doors Down, drawings to win iPads and the chance to stay in a “posh hotel,” POLITICO has learned.
politico: Secret money funds GOP door-knockers
Barack Obama ends up in Iowa tonight and Bill Clinton in Philadephia and Scranton.
Enjoy the threads below and share memories. Work hard tomorrow. I can tell you the Obama GOTV effort is running on all cylinders. In Missouri, a non-battleground state, I already have received several calls in the last week to vote and a Mo. Dem Party person knocked on my door Sunday, smiling after seeing all the signs in our front yard.
I'll be out again as part of the Voter Protection team tomorrow at the polls.
We're almost there. Just a few more steps!
Fired up!
Ready to Go!
Link to Transcripts and Documents.