Now we've established that people who analyze polling data might have something there, let's devise ways to compare and contrast the different models. Drew Linzer at votamatic.com already described his strategy for checking how well his model worked, and started Tweeting some of his post hoc analyses. So did Simon Jackman. As of this moment, Micah Cohen at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog says "Stay tuned." Darryl Holman is busy covering the Washington State race, but I suspect we'll see some predictive performance analysis from him soon, too.
Tonight (okay, this morning), I want to compare the predictions that three of the modelers made about the electoral vote count to show you just how awesome these guys did, but also to draw some contrasts in the results of their modeling strategy. Darryl Holman, Simon Jackman, and Sam Wang all shared the probability distribution of their final electoral vote predictions for Obama with me. Here are the three probability distributions in the same plot for what I think is the first time.
For the rest of the analysis, check out Malark-O-Meter. Fair warning, I wrote this at two in the morning. It's still quite coherent. Enjoy.