In this diary I will list the races and the offices that I think will be in Democratic hands after today's elections in the following levels:
- President and Vicepresident (by state)
- Senate
- Governors
- US House
- Statewide elected offices
- State Legislature chambers
All the numbers are totals except for the statewide offices where are counted only the offices in play in 2012. The numbers of gains are refered to all the cycle 2011-2012 (until now we have a tie in all the levels except in the state legislatures where we have a -1).
For some races I included a numerical prediction of the difference between the Democratic and the Republican candidate, that comes from the polling data.
All the numbers are Rasmussen free.
Still I have not enough time for including the numerical predictions for the US House, maybe I goes updating the diary before we begin to know the data of the vote count.
PRESIDENT AND VICEPRESIDENT
Overall estimation = + 2.0% Obama / Biden
Number of states = 26+DC (2 Loses + NE-02)
Electoral College = 332 Obama / Biden 206 Romney / Ryan
DC-P / DC-VP
VT-P / VT-VP
HI-P / HI-VP
MA-P / MA-VP
RI-P / RI -VP
NY-P / NY-VP
MD-P / MD-VP
IL-P / IL-VP
CA-P / CA-VP
DE-P / DE-VP
WA-P / WA-VP: + 13.58% Obama / Biden
ME-P / ME-VP: + 13.42% Obama / Biden
CT-P / CT-VP: + 12.75% Obama / Biden
NJ-P / NJ-VP: + 12.50% Obama / Biden
NM-P / NM-VP: + 8.25% Obama / Biden
OR-P / OR-VP: + 7.13% Obama / Biden
MN-P / MN-VP: + 6.92% Obama / Biden
MI-P / MI-VP: + 5.00% Obama / Biden
WI-P / WI-VP: + 4.83% Obama / Biden
NV-P / NV-VP: + 4.67% Obama / Biden
OH-P / OH-VP: + 4.50% Obama / Biden
PA-P / PA-VP: + 4.33% Obama / Biden (271 electoral votes until here)
CO-P / CO-VP: + 3.83% Obama / Biden
VA-P / VA-VP: + 3.75% Obama / Biden
NH-P / NH-VP: + 2.83% Obama / Biden
IA-P / IA-VP: + 2.58% Obama / Biden
FL-P / FL-VP: + 1.00% Obama / Biden
And the final map without Toss-ups:
SENATE
Total Senate seats = 55 (2 Gains)
VT-Sen: no data Sanders (I)
DE-Sen: no data Carper
WV-Sen: + 40.50% Manchin
NY-Sen: + 40.25% Gillibrand
MN-Sen: + 29.75% Klobuchar
MD-Sen: + 26.00% Cardin
WA-Sen: + 21.50% Cantwell
RI-Sen: + 21.25% Withehouse
NJ-Sen: + 18.75% Menendez
CA-Sen: + 18.50% Feinstein
ME-Sen: + 14.75% King (I)
HI-Sen: + 14.75% Hirono
FL-Sen: + 13.75% Nelson
MI-Sen: + 11.25% Stabenow
MO-Sen: + 8.25% McCaskill
PA-Sen: + 7.25% Casey
OH-Sen: + 7.25% Brown
NM-Sen: + 4.50% Heinrich
CT-Sen: + 4.25% Murphy
WI-Sen: + 2.25% Baldwin
VA-Sen: + 5.25% Kaine
MA-Sen: + 4.00% Warren
IN-Sen: + 2.50% Donnelly
ND-Sen: + 1.25% Heitkamp
MT-Sen: = 0.00% Tester
GOVERNORS
Total Governors = 20 (1 Lose)
VT-Gov: no data Shumlin
DE-Gov: no data Markell
WV-Gov: + 25.50% Tomblin
MO-Gov: + 11.25% Nixon
NH-Gov: + 5.00% Hassan
WA-Gov: + 1.00% Inslee
MT-Gov: + 2.25% Bullock
US HOUSE
Total House seats = 196 (3 Gains)
001: VT-AL
002: HI-02
003: MA-01
004: MA-02
005: MA-04
006: MA-05
007: MA-07
008: MA-08
009: MA-09
010: RI-02
011: NY-03
012: NY-04
013: NY-05
014: NY-07
015: NY-08
016: NY-09
017: NY-10
018: NY-12
019: NY-13
020: NY-14
021: NY-15
022: NY-16
023: NY-17
024: NY-20
025: NY-26
026: MD-02
027: MD-03
028: MD-04
029: MD-05
030: MD-07
031: MD-08
032: IL-01
033: IL-02
034: IL-03
035: IL-04
036: IL-05
037: IL-07
038: IL-09
039: CA-02
040: CA-05
041: CA-06
042: CA-11
043: CA-12
044: CA-13
045: CA-14
046: CA-15
047: CA-17
048: CA-18
049: CA-19
050: CA-20
051: CA-27
052: CA-28
053: CA-29
054: CA-30
055: CA-32
056: CA-34
057: CA-35
058: CA-37
059: CA-40
060: CA-43
061: CA-44
062: CA-51
063: CA-53
064: CT-01
065: CT-02
066: CT-03
067: CT-04
068: DE-AL
069: ME-01
070: ME-02
071: WA-02
072: WA-07
073: WA-09
074: MI-12
075: MI-13
076: MI-14
077: NJ-01
078: NJ-06
079: NJ-08
080: NJ-09
081: NJ-10
082: NJ-12
083: OR-01
084: OR-03
085: OR-04
086: OR-05
087: MN-04
088: MN-05
089: NM-03
090: PA-01
091: PA-02
092: PA-13
093: PA-14
094: PA-17
095: WI-02
096: WI-03
097: WI-04
098: NV-01
099: CO-01
100: CO-02
101: OH-03
102: OH-09
103: OH-11
104: OH-13
105: FL-05
106: FL-14
107: FL-20
108: FL-21
109: FL-24
110: VA-03
111: VA-08
112: VA-11
113: MO-01
114: MO-05
115: NC-01
116: NC-04
117: NC-12
118: AZ-03
119: AZ-07
120: IN-01
121: IN-07
122: GA-02
123: GA-04
124: GA-05
125: GA-13
126: SC-06
127: WV-03
128: TN-05
129: TN-09
130: KY-03
131: LA-02
132: MS-02
133: TX-09
134: TX-15
135: TX-16
136: TX-18
137: TX-28
138: TX-29
139: TX-30
140: TX-33
141: TX-35
142: AL-07
143: HI-01
144: MI-05
145: CA-38
146: NM-01
147: FL-09
148: NY-25
149: WA-06
150: CA-03
151: AZ-02
152: CA-47
153: CA-33
154: RI-01
155: NY-06
156: IL-08
157: FL-23
158: TX-34
159: MA-03
160: TX-20
161: CA-46
162: MI-09
163: WA-10
164: IA-02
165: CA-16
166: CA-24
167: WA-01
168: CT-05
169: NY-21
170: MN-01
171: NY-01
172: MN-07
173: KY-06
174: PA-12
175: GA-12
176: NC-07
177: FL-22
178: IL-13
179: CA-09
180: IL-12
181: NH-02
182: MD-06
183: AZ-09
184: IL-11
185: NY-24
186: TX-14
187: FL-26
188: MN-08
189: MI-01
190: FL-02
191: IA-01
192: CA-41
193: CA-26
194: CO-07
195: CA-52
196: IL-17
STATEWIDE ELECTED OFFICES
Total Statewide elected (in 2012) offices = 40 (1 Gain)
NC-AG: Unnoposed Cooper
WA-SPI: Elected in the primary Dorn
VT-SS: no data Condos
VT-AG: no data Sorrell
VT-ST: no data Pearce
DE-LG: no data Denn
DE-CI: no data Stewart
WV-SS: no data Tennant
WV-SA: no data Gainer
WA-ST: no data McIntire
WV-AG: + 24.00% McGraw
WV-ST: + 19.00% Perdue
WA-IC: + 15.00% Kreidler
WV-LG: linked to the majority in the WV-StS Kessler
MO-AG: + 13.50% Koster
OR-AG: + 13.00% Rosemblum
OR-ST: + 12.00% Wheeler
OR-SS: + 11.75% Brown
WA-CPL: + 10.75% Goldmark
PA-AG: + 10.00% Kane
WA-LG: + 9.00% Owen
MT-SA: + 9.00% Lindeen
WA-AG: + 8.75% Ferguson
WA-SS: + 8.00% Drew
WA-SA: + 7.50% Kelley
VT-SA: no data Hoffer
WV-CA: no data Helmick
NC-SS: + 7.00% Marshall
NC-SA: + 6.25% Wood
NC-CI: + 5.25% Goodwin
NC-SPI: + 5.00% Atkinson
NC-ST: + 4.75% Cowell
MT-SPI: + 3.00% Juneau
MO-ST: + 2.67% Zweifel
PA-ST: + 1.67% McCord
MT-SS: + 1.50% McCulloch
OR-CLI: + 1.25% Avakian
PA-SA: + 0.67% DePasquale
ND-SPI: + 6.00% Potter
MT-LG: + 2.25% Walsh
MAJORITY IN THE STATE LEGISLATURES
Number of state chambers with Democratic majority = 41 (3 Gains)
VT-StS
VT-StH
HI-StS
HI-StH
MA-StS
MA-StH
RI-StS
RI-StH
NY-StH
IL-StS
IL-StH
CA-StS
CA-StH
CT-StS
CT-StH
DE-StS
DE-StH
WA-StH
NM-StS
WV-StS
WV-StH
ME-StH
OR-StS
OR-StH
NM-StH
NV-StH
CO-StS
CO-StH
KY-StH
NY-StS
WA-StS
MN-StS
MN-StH
IA-StS
NV-StS
ME-StS
WI-StS
RACES TO WATCH THAT CAN INCREASE THE GAINS
NV-04
NE-02-P / NE-02-VP
NC-P / NC-VP
NY-27
NC-08
UT-04
IA-03
NV-Sen
AZ-01
MA-06
NC-LG
CA-07
MO-SS
FL-10
IL-10
AR-StS
AR-StH
NH-01
FL-18
Tx-23
CA-36
OH-16
OH-06
TX-23
VT-LG
Here is where the numbers drive me this cycle. Looking at the numbers I can not predict more victories, despite my wish to do it (the people read me lots of times about NV-Sen, as example), but I let you the chance to call for some "good surprise" in the following poll that includes the most competitive of these last races.