I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my "Partisan Factor" predictions for California, basically merging a national and a California diary into one.
For the national-level results, I used a combination of state polls and national polls, and factored in the results from 2008 to come up with my predictions. For the California-level results, I used registration and presidential, Senatorial, and gubernatorial results to come up with my "Partisan Factor", which is how I predict each competitive district will go.
Here are my predictions, signed, sealed, and delivered, beginning with the presidential race. Switches from 2008 are noted with an asterisk.
State |
Result |
D Electoral Votes |
R Electoral Votes |
Alabama
|
Romney by 19.23
|
|
9
|
Alaska
|
Romney by 20.43
|
|
3
|
Arizona
|
Romney by 6.84
|
|
11
|
Arkansas
|
Romney by 22.87
|
|
6
|
California
|
Obama by 19.92
|
55
|
|
Colorado
|
Obama by 2.59
|
9
|
|
Connecticut
|
Obama by 15.74
|
7
|
|
Delaware
|
Obama by 26.09
|
3
|
|
District of Columbia
|
Obama by 87.03
|
3
|
|
Florida
|
Romney by 0.26*
|
|
29
|
Georgia
|
Romney by 6.71
|
|
16
|
Hawaii
|
Obama by 36.69
|
4
|
|
Idaho
|
Romney by 24.19
|
|
4
|
Illinois
|
Obama by 18.81
|
20
|
|
Indiana
|
Romney by 5.43*
|
|
11
|
Iowa
|
Obama by 2.79
|
6
|
|
Kansas
|
Romney by 13.81
|
|
6
|
Kentucky
|
Romney by 14.55
|
|
8
|
Louisiana
|
Romney by 17.52
|
|
8
|
Maine
|
Obama by 15.29
|
4
|
|
Maryland
|
Obama by 22.39
|
10
|
|
Massachusetts
|
Obama by 21.84
|
11
|
|
Michigan
|
Obama by 5.18
|
16
|
|
Minnesota
|
Obama by 8.34
|
10
|
|
Mississippi
|
Romney by 12.06
|
|
6
|
Missouri
|
Romney by 8.3
|
|
10
|
Montana
|
Romney by 5.11
|
|
3
|
Nebraksa
|
Romney by 13.41
|
|
5
|
Nevada
|
Obama by 3.64
|
6
|
|
New Hampshire
|
Obama by 3.01
|
4
|
|
New Jersey
|
Obama by 14.33
|
14
|
|
New Mexico
|
Obama by 11.66
|
5
|
|
New York
|
Obama by 26.87
|
29
|
|
North Carolina
|
Romney by 0.46*
|
|
15
|
North Dakota
|
Romney by 19.11
|
|
3
|
Ohio
|
Obama by 2.96
|
18
|
|
Oklahoma
|
Romney by 29.59
|
|
7
|
Oregon
|
Obama by 9.78
|
7
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
Obama by 6.09
|
20
|
|
Rhode Island
|
Obama by 22.98
|
4
|
|
South Carolina
|
Romney by 7.87
|
|
9
|
South Dakota
|
Romney by 6.65
|
|
3
|
Tennessee
|
Romney by 13.95
|
|
11
|
Texas
|
Romney by 14.9
|
|
38
|
Utah
|
Romney by 33.45
|
|
6
|
Vermont
|
Obama by 37.56
|
3
|
|
Virginia
|
Obama by 2.05
|
13
|
|
Washington
|
Obama by 12.05
|
12
|
|
West Virginia
|
Romney by 12.99
|
|
5
|
Wisconsin
|
Obama by 5.8
|
10
|
|
Wyoming
|
Romney by 31.23
|
|
3
|
Total |
|
303 |
235 |
Next up is the short and sweet table of governor races. Pickups are noted with an asterisk.
State
|
Result
|
Delaware
|
Safe Markell (D)
|
Indiana
|
Pence (D) by 7.87
|
Missouri
|
Nixon (D) by 13
|
Montana
|
Daines (R) by 0.5*
|
New Hampshire
|
Hassan (D) by 3
|
North Carolina
|
McCrory (R) by 14.25*
|
North Dakota
|
Dalrymple (R) by 35
|
Utah
|
Safe Herbert (R)
|
Vermont
|
Shumlin (D) by 34.00
|
Washington
|
Inslee (D) by 0.5
|
West Virginia
|
Tomblin (D) by 21
|
Total Governors |
30 Republicans, 19 Democrats, 1 Independent |
Now for the Senate races. I don't know if it will happen, but I predict a status quo. Again, the good old asterisk for the pickups.
State |
Result |
Arizona
|
Carmona (D) by 0.5*
|
California
|
Feinstein (D) by 19
|
Connecticut
|
Murphy (D) by 4.67
|
Delaware
|
Safe Carper (D)
|
Florida
|
Nelson (D) by 7.43
|
Hawaii
|
Hirono (D) by 18.5
|
Indiana
|
Donnelly (D) by 3*
|
Maine
|
King (I) by 18*
|
Maryland
|
Cardin (D) by 26.09
|
Massachusetts
|
Warren (D) by 4.67*
|
Michigan
|
Stabenow (D) by 13.5
|
Minnesota
|
Klobuchar (D) by 30
|
Mississippi
|
Safe Wicker (R)
|
Missouri
|
McCaskill (D) by 6.25
|
Montana
|
Rehberg (R) by 1.13*
|
Nebraska
|
Fischer (R) by 13*
|
Nevada
|
Heller (R) by 5.14
|
New Jersey
|
Menendez (D) by 18
|
New Mexico
|
Heinrich (D) by 9.67
|
New York
|
Gillibrand (D) by 43
|
North Dakota
|
Berg (R) by 5*
|
Ohio
|
Brown (D) by 6.14
|
Pennsylvania
|
Casey (D) by 5.14
|
Rhode Island
|
Whitehouse (D) by 25.5
|
Tennessee
|
Safe Corker (R)
|
Texas
|
Cruz (R) by 21.5
|
Utah
|
Safe Hatch (R)
|
Vermont
|
Safe Sanders (I)
|
Virginia
|
Kaine (D) by 1.57
|
Washington
|
Cantwell (D) by 16.5
|
West Virginia
|
Manchin (D) by 39
|
Wisconsin
|
Baldwin (D) by 2.67
|
Wyoming
|
Safe Barrasso (R)
|
Total Senators |
51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Indpendents |
Finally, the competitive House races, which will result in a Dem gain of 3 seats for a 239-196 GOP majority.
District |
Result |
AZ-01
|
Paton (R) by 1.88
|
AZ-02
|
Barber (D) by 5.63
|
AZ-09
|
Sinema (D) by 2.56
|
CA-03
|
Garamendi (D) by 15
|
CA-07
|
Bera (D) by 1.25
|
CA-09
|
McNerney (D) by 1.25
|
CA-10
|
Denham (R) by 1.13
|
CA-24
|
Capps (D) by 2.5
|
CA-26
|
Brownley (D) by 0.5
|
CA-36
|
Bono Mack (R) by 0.63
|
CA-41
|
Takano (D) by 6.25
|
CA-47
|
Lowenthal (D) by 15
|
CA-52
|
Peters (D) by 0.31
|
CO-03
|
Tipton (R) by 5
|
CO-06
|
Coffman (R) by 4.38
|
CO-07
|
Perlmutter (D) by 7.5
|
CT-05
|
Esty (D) by 3.13
|
FL-02
|
Southerland (R) by 6.25
|
FL-10
|
Webster (R) by 5
|
FL-16
|
Buchanan (R) by 10
|
FL-18
|
West (R) by 4.59
|
FL-22
|
Frankel (D) by 3.89
|
FL-26
|
Rivera (R) by 2
|
GA-12
|
Barrow (D) by 4.25
|
IL-08
|
Duckworth (D) by 8.75
|
IL-10
|
Dold (R) by 1.88
|
IL-11
|
Foster (D) by 2.81
|
IL-12
|
Enyart (D) by 4.94
|
IL-13
|
Gill (D) by 0.63
|
IL-17
|
Bustos (D) by 0.63
|
IN-02
|
Walorski (R) by 12.5
|
IN-08
|
Bucshon (R) by 10
|
IA-01
|
Braley (D) by 15
|
IA-02
|
Loebsack (D) by 10
|
IA-03
|
Latham (R) by 3.75
|
IA-04
|
King (R) by 3.44
|
KY-06
|
Chandler (D) by 5.19
|
MD-06
|
Delaney (D) by 5.5
|
MA-06
|
Tisei (R) by 5.5
|
MI-01
|
McDowell (D) by 1.31
|
MI-03
|
Amash (R) by 11.25
|
MI-11
|
Bentivolio (R) by 6.25
|
MN-02
|
Kline (R) by 15
|
MN-06
|
Bachmann (R) by 6.25
|
MN-08
|
Nolan (D) by 2.56
|
MT-AL
|
Daines (R) by 8.67
|
NV-03
|
Heck (R) by 9
|
NV-04
|
Tarkanian (R) by 0.56
|
NH-01
|
Guinta (R) by 5.31
|
NH-02
|
Kuster (D) by 4.85
|
NJ-03
|
Runyan (R) by 10.63
|
NY-01
|
Bishop (D) by 8.69
|
NY-11
|
Grimm (R) by 13.38
|
NY-18
|
Hayworth (R) by 4.75
|
NY-19
|
Gibson (R) by 3.75
|
NY-21
|
Owens (D) by 2.06
|
NY-24
|
Maffei (D) by 1.56
|
NY-25
|
Slaughter (D) by 9.38
|
NY-27
|
Collins (R) by 2.06
|
NC-07
|
Rouzer (R) by 0.63
|
NC-08
|
Hudson (R) by 10
|
NC-11
|
Meadows (R) by 12.5
|
ND-AL
|
Cramer (R) by 12.25
|
OH-06
|
Johnson (R) by 4.38
|
OH-16
|
Renacci (R) by 1.88
|
OK-02
|
Mullin (R) by 11.63
|
PA-06
|
Gerlach (R) by 15
|
PA-08
|
Fitzpatrick (R) by 11.25
|
PA-12
|
Critz (D) by 1.88
|
RI-01
|
Cicilline (D) by 2.83
|
SD-AL
|
Noem (R) by 12
|
TN-04
|
DesJarlais (R) by 5
|
TX-14
|
Weber (R) by 6.25
|
TX-23
|
Gallego (D) by 1
|
UT-04
|
Love (R) by 8.19
|
VA-02
|
Regel (R) by 10
|
WA-01
|
DelBene (D) by 5.25
|
WV-03
|
Rahall (D) by 12.5
|
WI-07
|
Duffy (R) by 6.25
|
WI-08
|
Ribble (R) by 15
|
Total Representatives |
239 Republicans, 196 Democrats |
Now onto my final California predictions:
U.S. House
District |
Registration |
CPVI |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
PF |
CA-03
|
R+2.7
|
D+2.8
|
R+6.3
|
R+3.0
|
R+2.3
|
CA-07
|
R+8.0
|
R+0.9
|
R+9
|
R+4.1
|
R+5.5
|
CA-09
|
R+1.4
|
D+4.3
|
R+3.8
|
R+2.2
|
R+0.8
|
CA-10
|
R+8.3
|
R+3.8
|
R+12.3
|
R+9.6
|
R+8.6
|
CA-24
|
R+6.4
|
D+4.3
|
R+6
|
R+6.5
|
R+3.7
|
CA-26
|
R+5.6
|
D+4.0
|
R+6.3
|
R+7.3
|
R+3.8
|
CA-36
|
R+8.9
|
R+2.1
|
R+10.2
|
R+10.2
|
R+7.9
|
CA-41
|
R+5.7
|
D+5.9
|
R+1.6
|
R+0.3
|
R+0.4
|
CA-47
|
R+0.4
|
D+6.3
|
R+0.3
|
R+1.5
|
D+0.7
|
CA-52
|
R+7.6
|
D+2.5
|
R+9.2
|
R+11.0
|
R+6.3
|
State Senate (odd-numbered districts)
District |
Registration |
CPVI |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
PF |
SD-05
|
R+13.2
|
D+0.6
|
R+8.8
|
R+6.0
|
R+6.9
|
SD-19
|
R+0.8
|
D+7.9
|
R+2.2
|
R+3.4
|
D+0.4
|
SD-27
|
R+3.8
|
D+4.7
|
R+5.7
|
R+7.2
|
R+3.0
|
SD-31
|
R+8.0
|
D+3.8
|
R+5.4
|
R+4.0
|
R+3.4
|
SD-39
|
R+2.8
|
D+8.6
|
R+2.0
|
R+3.8
|
R+0.0
|
State Assembly
District |
Registration |
CPVI |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
PF |
AD-08
|
R+5.9
|
EVEN
|
R+7.9
|
R+3.0
|
R+4.2
|
AD-16
|
R+4.1
|
D+8.3
|
R+2.8
|
R+3.9
|
R+0.6
|
AD-21
|
R+2.6
|
D+2.2
|
R+8.9
|
R+5.7
|
R+3.8
|
AD-32
|
D+3.2
|
D+0.3
|
R+9.6
|
R+11.1
|
R+4.3
|
AD-40
|
R+8.5
|
D+0.2
|
R+8.4
|
R+6.3
|
R+5.8
|
AD-44
|
R+8.0
|
D+2.5
|
R+8.2
|
R+9.5
|
R+5.8
|
AD-60
|
R+12.5
|
R+1.1
|
R+10.7
|
R+9.2
|
R+8.4
|
AD-61
|
R+4.3
|
D+8.7
|
R+0.1
|
D+1.1
|
D+1.4
|
AD-65
|
R+8.8
|
R+1.9
|
R+10.6
|
R+11.2
|
R+8.1
|
AD-66
|
R+5.1
|
D+2.8
|
R+6.4
|
R+7.5
|
R+4.1
|
AD-78
|
D+0.2
|
D+12.0
|
D+3.4
|
D+1.4
|
D+4.3
|
Assuming districts with a PF of less than R+7 are Dem wins (California's Cook PVI is D+7), then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:
U.S. House: 37 DEM, 16 GOP
(Districts 3, 7, 9, 24, 26, 41, 47 and 52 go DEM; 10 and 36 go GOP)
Safe DEM (29): 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14): 1, 4, 8, 21, 22, 23, 25, 31, 39, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50
State Senate: 28 DEM, 12 GOP
(Districts 5, 19, 27, 31, and 39 all go DEM)
Safe DEM (10): 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5): 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM, 7 GOP
State Assembly: 55 DEM, 25 GOP
(Districts 8, 16, 21, 32, 40, 44, 61, 66, and 78 go DEM; 60 and 65 go GOP)
Safe DEM (46): 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 79, 80
Safe GOP (23): 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 23, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 42, 55, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77