Today's vote in the House of Representatives on "Plan B" seems delayed until tonight as Speaker Boehner appears to be adding a hard core conservative's wish list including extending the reduced estate taxes, and automatic minimum tax; and reducing the amount of defense cuts in the sequestration bill, to gain conservative support. Reports are unclear to me, at this stage if these are included in two separate bills, or combined, as it is being reported in both ways.
An increasing number of conservatives seem to see passing this symbolic attempt to blame Democrats for lack of middle class tax cuts (now defined by the GOP as those earning less than $1 million/year), as their best way forward, and delaying the budget battle to the first quarter, so they can have more time to change public opinion and exploit the debt-ceiling crisis as a more powerful strategic positioning for them. Yesterday, Newt Gingrich proposed that Boehner delay this debate three months to allow the GOP time to "frame the debate in more favorable terms." (See below.)
CNN reports:
Washington (CNN) -- A scheduled showdown vote Thursday evening ... [is reported to include a] second proposal would change the automatic spending cuts set to kick in next year under the fiscal cliff, replacing cuts to the military with reductions elsewhere. ... While considered a negotiating tactic to pressure Obama to make more concessions, the vote also seeks to turn public opinion that now backs the president over Republicans in the talks. ....
A new CNN/ORC International poll Thursday showed that just over half of respondents believe Republicans should give up more than Democrats in any bipartisan solution to the country's problems.
...Sources said the Boehner measure also could include extending the current estate tax and alternative minimum tax, two steps sought by Republicans. ... GOP leaders also had planned to vote Thursday on Obama's long-standing proposal to extend the Bush-era tax cuts on income up to $250,000, a lower threshold than Boehner's alternative.
However, Republicans decided to drop the vote on Obama's version, which was a major theme of the president's re-election campaign. In the negotiations, Obama had agreed to raise his threshold to income over $400,000, and a GOP aide told CNN that change made a vote on the original plan unnecessary.
Humorously, I presume, Boehner is reportedly having trouble rounding conservatives to support their own extreme-most plan so he is currently "negotiating" what additional concessions they may need to support their own strategy -- so this appears to be mostly theater to sway public perceptions. This "beyond their wildest dreams wish list," seems aimed at eviscerating the Democrat's strongest negotiating levers and advantage of public perception.
Yesterday, Sam Stein reported Newt Gingrich provided cover for John Boehner proposing that Boehner
Gingrich proposed a third path. He told Boehner to delay any vote by passing legislation to defer the tax hikes and spending cuts another three months. That would give Republicans more time to frame the debate in more favorable terms.
Conservatives are unconcerned that President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have already opposed even the original pure bills just raising the top tax rate threshold to $1 million saying they will not pass, as it is intended, rather, to change public perceptions so that that Democrats will be blamed for the lack of "middle class" tax cuts, and also neutralize what the GOP sees as the Democrats two strongest negotiation levers; the automatic end of the Bush tax-cuts returning the top rate to 39.6% without their agreement, and the approximately 50% of the reduction in government spending that comes from military cut in sequestration, instead of the 90% from social spending that President Obama is proposing, or the 100% from social spending that conservatives desire.
Speaker Boehner and Obama have not spoken to each other since Monday, leading many to believe he either expects President Obama to cave, giving substantially greater cuts to "entitlement" spending, or is now going along with conservatives who increasingly wish to go over the cliff, rather than agree to increased tax revenues.
If you are following the "order of service," now is the time Democrats are supposed to rush forward and grant additional major cuts to social programs to avoid this terrible scenario. We should not. Any further concessions in a grand bargain will push it "over the edge," many progressives believe we have already past, of being clearly worse than our Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement, or BATNU, as the sequestration cuts already seem better from many progressive's point of view, such as Howard Dean's, as they split the reductions of government spending about 50-50 with military spending, rather than taking 90%, on the way to 100%, from social programs.
We will need to fight for a separate bill to fight for the middle class tax cuts, Medicare "doctor's fix," which experts seem to think we will win once the reality of increased tax withholding, (or at least announcements of what if will be,) sinks in after January 1. Our chances on extending unemployment benefits are less clear, however, it isn't as if the GOP is offering to give us these now.
Stay tuned and get out the popcorn as we are coming down to "crunch time" of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations, and posturing. I support President Obama in remaining firm and not giving any additional concessions to intransigent Republicans. Yes, this is going to be painful, but additional concessions increasingly appear to be worse from the glimmers I can discern, at this point.