What is a 'tipping point'? Where did the phrase come from? The phrase 'tipping point' seems to have originated in science and more specifically, epidemiology. According to whatis.techtarget.com a 'tipping point' is, "the critical point in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development."
In this diary, I will establish a) the evolving situation, b) why we are at a critical point, and c) why the new development beyond the 2012 election could be irreversible.
First of all, what is the evolving situation with regard to electoral politics in our country? I would argue that the predominant element that could make 2012 a tipping point in our electoral process is that of the growing diversity in our country.
For instance, in 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected President, whites made up 87% of the voting public, according to the exit polls. African Americans accounted for 8%, and the Latino community accounted for just 2%.
By contrast, in 2008, when Obama swept to victory, whites made up only 74% of voters on election day. African Americans and Latinos made up 13% and 9% of the electorate respectively. If current trends hold, the electorate for the 2012 election could look something like this:
White 71%
Black 13%
Latino 11%
Asian 3%
Other 3%
Simply put, the minority segments of our society are growing the fastest. Why this is so significant for electoral politics is that Democrats do much better with minority voters than do Republicans. Republican politicians, forced to placate their base in order to stay competitive within their own party, turn off large numbers of Latinos and other minority voters with a platform that opposes immigration reform and even includes anti-immigrant language. The Democrats were able to capture nearly the entire black community, two thirds of the Latino vote, and 62% of Asian voters in 2008 and there's no evidence whatsoever that the Republicans will do much better among minority voters than they did in 2008.
Now, of course, it stands to reason that the next Democratic nominee for president will not necessarily do as well in capturing the African American vote as Obama has. But Al Gore and John Kerry each got around 90% of the African American vote, so it's clear that Democrats have a huge built-in advantage with the black community as a whole.
In any event, as our country continues to shift demographically and as the African American, Latino, and Asian communities continue to grow faster than the white segment of the population in the United States, the prospects for Democratic victories grow. That is simply a statement of fact. But why is 2012 a so-called 'tipping point'? The reason is this: if Obama gets reelected, this sets up Democrats nicely for 2016. The economy should continue to improve, albeit slowly, for the next several years. Democrats can tout their record on the economy going into 2016 where minorities will make up an even larger slice of the electoral pie. Republicans will still have to deal with the monster they have created - the insane, paranoid, delusional, batshite crazy Republican base which bears more resemblance to a large cult than it does a to serious political party. In effect, the opportunity for Democratic victories should, theoretically at least, accelerate with time. By 2020, the electorate could very well look like this:
White 65%
Black 14%
Latino 15%
Asian 3%
Other 3%
If Democrats continue to carry anything close to 90% of the black vote and two thirds of the Latino vote, we may never again see a Republican president in my lifetime.
This is also important when one takes a look at the upcoming swing states. Diversity is accelerating in states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Even in the rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana, diversity is on the increase. Texas, Arizona, and Georgia should be in play in 2016 and beyond. Traditional swing states like New Mexico and Oregon aren't even discussed anymore.