Reposted from an earlier article I wrote on Saturday (I added a lot more to the article):
I was just looking around some websites, when I began to think about what Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) could do instead of run against Lacy Clay (D) in the Democratic primary in Missouri's 1st District, run for the Republican-oriented 2nd district (R+7), or run for Lieutenant Governor. If he runs in District 1, he will likely lose an expensive primary to Lacy Clay because the district is a very black district. He would likely lose in District 2, also, because the district is very Republican, at R+7 on the PVI scale, and Ann Wagner is running a strong campaign there. This option also is not for Lieutenant Governor, where incumbent Peter Kinder (R) is battered after a scandal. Many major Democrats are already in the race to run against Kinder, including a state Rep. and a former State Democratic chair, among many others. Carnahan's entry into this race could force an even more expensive and bloody primary than it already is, and let Kinder (or one of his many primary challengers) win the general election over a battered Democratic nominee. My option is explained below the fold.
I think we should keep Carnahan in politics by having him run for State Auditor, which is the only current post currently held statewide by a Republican (besides LG and Senator Roy Blunt). Incumbent Republican Auditor Tom Schweich has said that he is considering running for Governor because of the weakness of Dave Spence and some dude Bill Randles. Although the State Auditor position isn't up until 2014, Carnahan could get a head start by campaigning for the position now, getting his name recognition up around the state, and likely winning the seat in 2014. If he does do this, he could then set up a run for Governor of Missouri in 2016, where either incumbent Jay Nixon (D) will be term-limited, or a Republican will be serving. His election to State Auditor could also set up a run for Senate in 2016 against incumbent Roy Blunt (R). Carnahan's statewide name recognition will be pretty high because he's State Auditor, and his election to the Senate could very well be likely.
There is actually one more option. He could run this cycle for Secretary of State, where his own sister (Robin) is retiring, leaving an open seat. There is one problem, though: state Rep. Jason Kander is already in the race. I don't know if Kander's presence in the race will deter Russ from entering the race for Secretary of State, but, I assume that Kander has been running for the seat for a while now and has raised some good amounts of money by now since he's the only Democrat in the race (so far). Carnahan's entry into the race may cause a bit of a divisive, expensive, and bloody primary battle, leaving the nominee battered for the general election, where the nominee will face one of three Republicans, who are all currently serving in the State Legislature.
I would rather have Russ run now for the State Auditor position, which is up in 2014, and because it's up in 2014, he can get his statewide name recognition up now, and will very likely be elected to the position. That could set up a 2016 run for Governor or Senate. I hope Russ chooses to run for State Auditor.