So over the weekend, Ron Paul won his first contest, Rick Santorum gained momentum by blowing out Mitt Romney in Kansas, and yet Mitt Romney won as many delegates as Rick Santorum by winning in Wyoming along with Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
But actually Ron Paul didn't win, Rick Santorum didn't get momentum, and Mitt Romney didn't get as many delegates.
First, the story of Ron Paul's "win": He narrowly edged out Mitt Romney in U.S. Virgin Islands, taking 30 percent to Romney's 26, but only took 1 of the territory's delegates to Romney's 7. Given that nobody really cares about the popular vote in the U.S. Virgin Islands, delegates are the only thing that matters. And Mitt Romney cleaned Ron Paul's clock, much to the Paul campaign's dismay.
Second, Rick Santorum blew Mitt Romney out in Kansas, getting more than 50 percent of the caucus vote and taking 33 delegates to Romney's 7. As a delegate victory, that was a pretty big deal, but despite some spin that Santorum would get momentum (for example "Rick Santorum won the Kansas Republican caucuses Saturday, giving him momentum as he and his GOP rivals sprint towards Tuesday’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi"), it turns out nobody was paying any attention. It was a blowout that nobody cared about because it happened on a Saturday afternoon.
Third, while it's true that Mitt Romney sealed his victory in Wyoming over the weekend, it's also true that the delegate count had already been included in his totals. So while his campaign claimed that it had won more delegates over the weekend than Santorum, that was not in fact true.
Bottom-line, here's the weekend recap of delegates gained:
- Rick Santorum: +33 (Kansas +33)
- Mitt Romney: +32 (Kansas +7, U.S. Virgin Islands +7, Guam +9, N. Marianas +9)
- Ron Paul: +1 (U.S. Virgin Islands +1)
- Newt Gingrich: 0
Even though Santorum did edge out Romney in total delegates, results like these put the lie to Santorum's claim that he'll be able to outmaneuver Romney when it comes to securing delegates. Santorum can definitely drag the nomination out, and he can force Romney to make a deal in order to get a majority of delegates, but the only remote possibility Santorum has to actually win the nomination is to consistently get more votes than Romney in state after state. And that's going to be very hard to do as long as Newt Gingrich is still in the race, and if Gingrich wins in either Mississippi (37 delegates) or Alabama (47 delegates) tomorrow, it seems hard to imagine him pulling out anytime soon.