Political historians may well note this, the third week in March, as when the string of unforced errors known as the 2012 Republican presidential nomination fight began to draw to a close.
It wasn't the 12-point victory for Mitt Romney in the Illinois GOP primary on Tuesday, which was the textbook definition of an "as-expected" performance.
It wasn't even the polling, though the polls this week were arguably the best numbers Mitt Romney has seen all year, at least of the intraparty variety.
It has more to do with the pervasive sense, both in the press and the blogosphere, that this thing has finally transitioned into the inevitability phase. What's more—it is now becoming excruciatingly difficult to divine a path back to relevance for any of the other players.
Beyond the battle for the White House, there was plenty else to peruse on the political front. We had another round of the "only polls that matter" (with quite a few surprising results), we had another round of the public opinion brand of polls (with fewer surprises there), and a lot of candidates were in an Empire State of mind after the new congressional maps in New York dropped.
All of that (and more!) in the "Spring Break can't come soon enough" edition of the Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: When you are down by ten points at halftime, it goes without saying that "holding serve" the rest of the way is going to be good enough. However, a cursory glance at this week's primary polling indicates just that—the balance of the primary schedule gives Rick Santorum some wins (Louisiana, North Carolina) but it also balances out by giving Mitt Romney some wins (Connecticut, Wisconsin).
This is yet another reason why, looking ahead, it becomes really hard to see how Mitt Romney doesn't eventually emerge as the Republican nominee. There are simply too many "good states" for Mitt Romney left on the calendar. Previous polling has given Romney clear edges in places like New York, New Jersey, and California. That would more than offset likely Santorum wins in Texas and Pennsylvania, in all probability.
We'll close on this note, a thought I had while compiling the polls for the Digest this weekend—does "national" primary polling still actually have any relevance, given that roughly half of the states in the union have already cast their ballots?
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 42, Santorum 26, Gingrich 15, Paul 8
NATIONAL (PPP): Romney 34, Santorum 31, Gingrich 20, Paul 9
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 31, Santorum 23, Gingrich 21, Paul 12
CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Romney 42, Santorum 19, Gingrich 13, Paul 9
LOUISIANA (American Research Group): Santorum 43, Romney 27, Gingrich 20, Paul 6
LOUISIANA (Magellan--R): Santorum 37, Romney 24, Gingrich 21, Perry 3, Paul 3, Roemer 3, Bachmann 2, Huntsman 1
LOUISIANA (PPP): Santorum 42, Romney 28, Gingrich 18, Paul 8, Roemer 2
LOUISIANA (Rasmussen): Santorum 43, Romney 31, Gingrich 16, Paul 5
NORTH CAROLINA (SurveyUSA): Santorum 34, Romney 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 10
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Romney 38, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 9
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Romney 46, Santorum 33, Paul 8, Gingrich 7
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: This was an unusually light polling week on the general election level, at least nationally. Maybe that was an expense issue (after all, it is a loooong way to November), or maybe the pollster community was still trying to make sense of
last week's craziness, where the national polls varied by well over a dozen points.
State polling this week shied away, more or less, from states that will be on a knife's edge come November (unless you count the pair of polls which were multi-state in nature, with a focus on "swing" or "core" states). The one "toss-up" state that was polled, however, doesn't look in any way shape or form like a "toss-up". The last three polls out of the great state of Virginia have averaged out to a lead for Barack Obama of 11.3 points.
The question now, which I will endeavor to answer tomorrow on Sunday Kos, is the following—if Mitt Romney is the inevitable 2012 nominee of the Republican Party, what do the polls tell us about his ability to make it to 270 electoral votes? The answer is ... well ... you'll have to wait until tomorrow for the answer!
NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Paul (46-43); Obama d. Santorum (48-45); Obama d. Romney (48-44); Obama d. Gingrich (50-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (44-44); Obama d. Santorum (48-43)
"CORE STATES" (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-42); Obama d. Santorum (49-43)
"SWING STATES" (Purple Strategies): Obama d. Romney (48-44); Obama d. Santorum (50-42)
CONNECTICUT (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (53-37); Obama d. Santorum (55-35)
MASSACHUSETTS (PPP): Obama d. Romney (58-35); Obama d. Paul (58-30); Obama d. Santorum (61-29); Obama d. Gingrich (62-28)
MICHIGAN (Marketing Resource Group): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (50-41); Santorum d. Obama (51-42)
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (50-44); Obama d. Santorum (52-36)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Obama d. Romney (48-41); Obama d. Santorum (48-37)
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Paul (48-39); Obama d. Santorum (49-40); Obama d. Romney (50-39); Obama d. Gingrich (54-34)
VIRGINIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (50-42); Obama d. Santorum (49-40); Obama d. Paul (49-39); Obama d. Gingrich (54-35)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (51-42); Obama d. Santorum (53-39)
- "Swing States" defined as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
- "Core states" defined as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Momentum shift, part two, or not? What is beyond dispute, for the moment, is that PPP is not seeing the same strong movement to Republican Sen. Scott Brown that a few pollsters saw in recent weeks. Their new poll out of Massachusetts put Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren ahead of Brown by a five-point margin (46-41). One of my favorite stats under the hood of that poll: Massachusetts voters, by a wide margin (57/19) approve of Harvard University, which would seem to hint that while the snide asides of dinging "Harvard faculty" might be all the rage in some circles (looking in your direction, Mitt), they don't play well back home.
Meanwhile, Connecticut is not a state that has received a ton of polling love this year. In itself, that is somewhat perplexing: not only is there a potentially contentious general election in a (nominally) Democratic open seat, but there are two separate and potentially competitive primaries. The crew at Quinnipiac waded into the Nutmeg State this week, and what they found was very interesting. In essence, they found that Republicans are, for the moment, likely to leave their more electable option on the bench come November. Shades of 2010, to be sure. In the GOP primary, 2010 nominee Linda McMahon held a 51-42 lead over former Rep. Chris Shays. But McMahon performed markedly worse against the leading Democrats in the field than did Shays. When paired with Shays, Democratic frontrunner Chris Murphy led by a single point (41-40). Shays, meanwhile, actually held a lead of a single point over Democratic Sec. of State Susan Bysiewicz (43-42). If McMahon holds serve, however, Byswiewicz led by 10 points (49-39) and Murphy led by 15 points (52-37). In that Democratic primary, by the way, Murphy maintained a double-digit lead (37-25) over Bysiewicz.
Another seldomly polled state got some attention early in the week courtesy of a bit of internal polling data out of Indiana. The banner headline, courtesy of a GOP poll by Wenzel and a Democratic poll by Global Strategy Group, was that teabaggin' state treasurer Richard Mourdock was within striking distance of incumbent Republican Sen. Dick Lugar. Both pollsters had Lugar leading Mourdock by just six points (45-39). What's more, we got our first look (in the GSG poll) of some general election numbers in the Hoosier State. While taking into account that this was, after all, a Democratic poll, the numbers were surprisingly good for Democrat Joe Donnelly. When paired with the historically impenetrable Lugar, the incumbent's lead was only 13 points: Lugar 42, Donnelly 29, with Libertarian Andy Horning at 9 percent. If Mourdock somehow seizes the GOP nod, Donnelly actually moved into the lead (34-28, with Horning at 8 percent).
If Indiana is a GOP-held seat to watch, perhaps it is time to consider New Jersey as a Democratic-held seat to watch? After a series of polls gave Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez a fairly comfortable edge over Republican state senator Joe Kyrillos, a new poll by Fairleigh Dickinson put the margin at a fairly close ten points (43-33). What's more—they had Menendez losing to the always fearsome "someone else" (though, as David Nir noted on Monday, the pollsters had some good-natured fun with that particular result).
Down in Virginia, we got two polls with disparate results. Quinnipiac returned to the state, and found a slight advantage for Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican George Allen in this "clash of the titans". The margin, according to the Q poll, was three points (47-44) this month. Of course, the House of Ras offered their own unique take on the race, too. Not surprising: it differed from the Q poll, showing Allen with a two-point edge over Kaine (46-44).
The House of Ras also waded into Nevada, and (once again) they found more support for the Republican candidate than ... well ... just about any other pollster. While the rest of the polling community, including even Republican Sen. Dean Heller's own pollsters, have had the race consistently within four points either way, the Rassies saw this as a seven-point race, with Heller comfortably ahead of Democrat Shelley Berkley (47-40).
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Those polls out of the Hoosier State may have more relevance than you think, based on the goings-on in Indiana this week. Apparently, the Club for Growth has decided to make Indiana their beachhead this cycle, and longtime GOP incumbent Dick Lugar is their primary focus. They're committing an almost shocking $1.8 million in advertising on behalf of conservative primary challenger Richard Mourdock. On top of that, Lugar's bad news streak continues unabated—among this week's revelations were the fact that he has only spent 14 percent of his career in the state of Indiana (worse yet—his campaign released those numbers, as if they'd somehow help him!). Then, midweek, it was revealed that he owed the federal treasury money, after he had violated procedure by billing taxpayers for hotel stays in his (ahem) home state of Indiana. The government, amazingly, assumes that when the Senate is adjourned, you'll just live in your home.
- Meanwhile, in Nevada, we get the textbook definition of "politically motivated". The GOP-controlled House Ethics Committee has announced that they are investigating veteran Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, her party's likely nominee for the Senate. The investigation will center on Berkley's efforts to keep open a kidney treatment center in Las Vegas. The GOP is apparently focusing on the fact that Berkley's husband, a doctor, was affiliated with that center. Ironically, Berkley's push to keep the center open was endorsed by none other than fellow Nevada Rep. Dean Heller, who is now Senator Dean Heller, Berkley's near-certain opponent in November. This has all the appearances of a smear effort by the House ethics committee, and one wonders if it will backfire, since it will serve to remind Nevada voters that Berkley led the charge to keep the only kidney transplant center in the state open.
- Finally, an eager nation no longer needs to wait, the Daily Kos Elections 2012 Senate race ratings are now live. The relief across the continent is palpable, we are sure.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Hard to say whether this is an exercise in expectations setting, or simply a message to the DCCC that, contrary to conventional wisdom, this is a seat worth defending. Either way, Anzalone Liszt polled NC-08 on behalf of sophomore Rep. Larry Kissell, and found him with a surprisingly comfortable lead over the leading Republican challenger in his gerrymandered new district. Kissell's poll spotted him a 46-36 lead over former staffer Richard Hudson, which the polling memo defined as the "perceived frontrunner" in the race (a potentially legit claim, if you go by fundraising).
Meanwhile, across the continent, we also saw new numbers in a hot House race, but to say "take these with a grain of salt" would be a humongous understatement. The poll came from the Ventura County-based CA-26 (left vacant by retiring Republican Elton Gallegly), and was conducted by "Independent" candidate Linda Parks (who is actually a Republican who filed as an Indie). While the actual numbers are a bit vague (other than claiming a 43-36 general election lead for Parks over Republican Tony Strickland), one stat ought to make everyone's spidey sense tingle. They claim that they polled three Democrats, and all of them were under 5 percent of the vote. To say I am a bit skeptical of a poll showing Democrats comprising under 15 percent support, in a district Barack Obama carried by a majority of the vote, would be an understatement. Especially when you consider that the same pollster (Gorton Blair Biggs) polled the deep-red desert district of CA-08 last week, and Democrats combined for 30 percent of the vote.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- This week marked the second of 50 sets of congressional primaries, and a set of races that had actually drawn a lot of attention. In Illinois, there were no less than five races that drew a lot of eyes as they were decided on Tuesday night. And, actually, one race (the Democratic primary in IL-13) wasn't even decided on Tuesday. There, Democratic physician David Gill, who has challenged Tim Johnson three times in the past decade, looks likely to get a fourth shot at the Republican. He led Greene County state's attorney Matt Goetten by a shade over 100 votes, with all precincts reporting. Among the races that did manage to arrive at a verdict on Tuesday night, the highest-profile race saw Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger score a 56-44 win over fellow GOP incumbent Donald Manzullo in IL-16. Other winners in high-profile races on Tuesday night: Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (who crushed former Rep. Debbie Halvorson in IL-02), Democrat Tammy Duckworth (who will now be the betting favorite over Republican Rep. Joe Walsh in IL-08), Democrat Brad Schneider (who will now lock horns with freshman Republican Bob Dold! in a coin flip seat in IL-10), and Democrat Cheri Bustos (who also is in a toss up seat versus a Republican freshman—Bobby Schilling—in the western-based IL-17).
- Now that New York has congressional maps, at long last, the action in the Empire State has been fast and furious. Both parties had to grin this week a little bit, as the GOP and the Democrats landed first-tier challengers in key races. In the newly-competitive NY-25, Republicans scored a big get when Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks announced on Monday that she'd challenge veteran Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter. Slaughter's district still leans Democratic, but Brooks is far and away the best Republican she has run against in decades. On that same note, self-funding GOPer Joe Carvin, who flirted with a Senate bid, instead landed in NY-17, where Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey is also dealing with a district that grew a bit more Republican in redistricting. Democrats, meanwhile, countered with a big get in NY-22, where a well-connected longtime staffer for retiring Rep. Maurice Hinchey, Dan Lamb, announced a challenge to freshman Rep. Richard Hanna. That leaves only Long Island's Peter King (who is in a bluer district, NY-02, than he served in for the past decade) as the only Republican incumbent in the state without a name-brand challenger.
- Finally, five states saw their filing deadlines pass over the past week or so. In those states, there are a ton of intriguing races for November. The filings included races in Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Maine, and Utah.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Wow. This is something of a rarity. I'd be happy to be contradicted in the comments, but a scouring of my usual polling haunts turned up absolutely zero polls on the gubernatorial or state legislative front this week.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The first gubernatorial election of the cycle will find out the status of its most high-profile undecided candidate in roughly a week. That's because Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett will announce sometime between March 30th and April 3rd whether he will take another shot at embattled Gov. Scott Walker (R) in his recall election in Wisconsin. There is significance to those dates: March 30th is the date that the state GAB is expected to certify the recall, and April 3rd is the day that Barrett stands for re-election as Milwaukee's mayor. For their part, the Republican Governors' Association ain't waiting around: their new negative ad on behalf of Walker takes a shot at both former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk (who is already in the recall election field) and Barrett. Seems clear that Walker and the RGA are assuming that Barrett will be a go when he makes his announcement.
- Meanwhile, at the legislative level in Wisconsin, Democrats got some very bad news. State senator Jim Holperin, who beat back a GOP recall effort last summer by a 55-45 margin, announced on Friday that he would not seek another term in the legislature. His seat was the most GOP-leaning of all the Democratic-held seats in the state senate, and may be a tough hold in November. What that means, in essence, is that the Democrats will probably need more than one pickup in this Spring's recall elections (they have four Republican seats in sight) in order to offset what would be an uphill battle to hold Holperin's seat in an open seat election in November. His district, the 12th Senate district, went for both Scott Walker and Ron Johnson by double-digits in 2010.
- As if the Senate race ratings by the crack staff at Daily Kos Elections were not cause enough to rejoice, the bounty does not end there, beloveds! We also released our race ratings for the dozen-ish gubernatorial races, as well!
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
This was the toughest week of the cycle to mull over Air Ball candidates. Because, by far, there were two most deserving candidates for the award. The problem, neither of them are running for office, thus making it hard to call their idiocies elections-related Air Balls (though one clearly was 2012-related). So, I'd like to bestow honorary Air Ball trophies to Eric Fehrnstrom (who, to his credit, handled his error with some aplomb) and Geraldo Rivera (who, to his discredit, did not).
Now, for the actual politicos who jacked it up this week, and failed to hit rim:
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA): He's going to go down, of course. But, as just about anyone could have easily predicted, he's decided to go down as a total embarrassment. From trying to perform CPR on the "Obama likes them Mooslims more than us regular folk" bullshit, to actually condemning the president's "soul searching" remarks about Trayvon Martin, he's gonna exit politics with an unmistakable stench.
Former Gov. Angus King (I-ME): Oh, for the love of all creatures big and small, Governor. We get it. You are independent. Fiercely so. Beholden to no party. So can you please stop with the silliness? If you really want to be a member of the U.S. Senate, it would help if you understood that you do, at least to some extent, have to pick a side. Among this week's great King contributions to campaign discourse was a reiteration of his desire to caucus with either party, depending on the issue (yeah ... you can't actually do that, unless you want to be the only member of the Senate without a committee assignment). He also decried partisanship, and in so doing seemed to compare himself to a combination of Pericles and Thomas Jefferson. Sigh. I can't be the only one who mourns the fact that DSCC head Patty Murray's semi-embrace of King upon his entry drove every bankable Democrat from the field, am I?!
Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): What, Mittens? No warm embrace of gumbo in a last-ditch effort to snare the Louisiana primaries? Shoot ... this might be the clearest sign of his nomination inevitability!
The Tennessee Republican Party: It's a damned shame that Clarence Darrow, H.L. Mencken, and (perhaps most importantly) John Scopes are no longer with us. Their unique skills, as unbelievable as it may seem, may still be needed. The GOP majority in the state senate has passed a bill ensuring that teachers and students can freely use their science classrooms as a place to criticize things like global warming and ...wait for it... evolution! The bill describes evolution as a matter of "debate and disputation". The GOP majority argued (heh) that the bill would encourage debate and help the critical thinking skills of their students. Somebody want to check in with the courthouse in Dayton, just in case?