The Buffett Rule is wending its way to a Congress near you. The Common Wisdom™ is that it will fail to pass, thus transforming into a political club with which to beat the Republicans all upside the head. And nothing could be more just, should it happen, than the Republicans being brained by their own lack of brains.
But…
…the whole club-weilding threat is based the Buffett Rule being popular and easy to bumper-sticker.
And that same power may make it hard for the R’s to weasel out when it’s up for a vote and House members are thinking about be re-election. Ten of them voted against the Ryan budget, which was much more complex. Enough might defect to give the Buffett Rule a chance of passage. And there are several Republican senators who are also at risk, or who have been freed from constraint to wing-nuttery, making Senate filibuster uncertain as well.
Which sounds like a good thing, but here’s where it gets dangerous. If Boehner & Co. fear that it might pass, they will look to see what kind of deal they can cut to get something for it. Then they can claim a victory, swallow the Buffett Rule as if it didn’t matter, and thus probably escape from behind this political woodshed.
So what would they ask for? My guess: Extension of the Bush tax cuts. Taxes on lower income folks are a bit lower under them, so that reduces the impact of the Buffett Rule. And any earnings that couldn’t get the extra-low-rich-person rates that made the Buffet Rule necessary would continue to be taxed at the lower Bush rates.
And that would totally, totally suck. The expiration of the Bush tax giveaways are the most obvious, painless, and simple way to actually accomplish two important goals: Lower the deficits and increase the progressivity of the tax code. I happen to think rich people should pay more than regular folk.
But there’s a simple symmetry about using them in a deal about the Buffett Rule. And the R’s want the cuts very badly, and the Obama folks have shown themselves willing to play with this.
So beware the tipping point when Republicans in the House start to get scared of the very real harm of an incoming Buffett Rule they can’t actually fend off.
P.S. Generally related, and once again newly perfect for this election, I offer you Malvina Reynolds’ “We Hate To See Them Go”, a.k.a, “The Bankers and the Diplomats”