It's important to note when speculating on the identity of Mitt Romney’s running mate that in the modern political era all major party nominees who were or had been governors selected a running mate with either legislative or administration connections to DC:
. In 1976 Gov Jimmy Carter picked Sen. Walter Mondale
. In 1980 Gov Reagan picked Nixon/Ford Administration crony George HW Bush
. In 1988 Gov Michael Dukakis picked Sen Lloyd Bentsen
. In 1992 Gov Bill Clinton picked Sen Al Gore
. In 2000 Gov George W Bush picked Ford Administration crony Dick Cheney.
In 1952 General Dwight Eisenhower, fresh off the battlefield, selected Sen. Richard Nixon.
The last all-governor Republican ticket was in 1948 when NY Governor Thomas Dewey picked California Governor Earl Warren to be his running mate. Dewey actually made the same mistake four years earlier when he selected Ohio Governor John Bricker as his running mate.
On the Democratic side you need to go all the way back to the Woodrow Wilson (NY) and Thomas Marshall (IN) ticket of 1912 to find two governors paired up. Since then there have been eight Democratic presidential nominees who were sitting governors or former governors (including Adlai Stevenson twice), and all eight picked DC insiders as their running mate.
This trend doesn't bode well for high-profile favorites such as Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Texas Governor Rick Perry, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, or Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval. Nor, for that matter, for former Florida governors Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist, former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, and former NY Governor George Pataki. None of these current or former governors ever worked in DC. (Huntsman comes the closest having been Ambassador to China under Obama.)
However, it does not rule out current Indiana governor Daniels or current Kansas governor Sam Brownback. Daniels, of course, was the Budget Director in the Bush Administration, and Sam Brownback spent 17 years in Congress – fifteen in the Senate and two in the House.
That said, I think it's safe to say that Romney's running mate will be narrowed down to those who are (1) in Congress now or have a long history of past congressional service, or (2) served in the George W. Bush Administration.
By saying "Congress" rather than "Senate" I widen the net to capture Rep Paul Ryan (and the ever-hopeful Rep Allen West). However, the last two vice presidential running mates who were plucked out of the US House were Rep Geraldine Ferraro (NY) by Walter Mondale in 1984, and Rep William Miller (NY) by Barry Goldwater in 1964. Those two elections turned out to be two of the largest political landslides in US presidential-election history, so if there's no compelling reason to test the theory that history repeats, then Romney would be stupid to do so. (So sit down Rep Ryan, it isn't going to be you.)
So assuming that Romney pays heed to all of this, here's my short list of possible Romney running mates:
* Sen John Thune (SD), former US Representative
* Sen Marco Rubio (FL)
* Sen Mike Johanns (NE), former governor, and former Secretary of Agriculture (Bush)
* Sen Rob Portman (OH), former Budget Director and former US Trade Representative (Bush), former US Representative
* Governor Mitch Daniels (IN), former Budget Director (Bush)
* Governor Sam Brownback (KS), former US senator
* Christine Todd Whitman, former Administrator of the EPA (Bush) and former NJ governor
Former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, another preseason favorite, has been adamant that she's not interested in the job, saying she loves policy, not politics and "How many ways can I say it? Not me."
There are problems with each one of these seven. Both Daniels and Portman were Budget Directors in the Bush Administration which opens up a topic the Republicans are not too keen on having scrutinized, and Whitman’s long-term pro-life position is a non-starter in today’s Republican Party. Neither Johanns nor Daniels are the kind of fiery orators or have the scintillating personalities that Romney is going to need to rally and motivate the base. Rubio, at 40 and with only two years in the Senate, is simply too young and inexperienced to be seriously considered. And if regional geography is still important – and many people legitimately make the point that it isn’t – then Thune, Johanns, and Brownback, who all represent small and solid Republican states, don’t bring much, if anything, in term of electoral votes to the table.
All of that said, the best choice for Romney is clear: Sam Brownback.
* Brownback spent 15 years in the US Senate after being a one-term Representative, so he knows his way around DC which, as I’ve already pointed out, will be a requirement for whoever Romney picks because of Romney's lack of DC experience and connections.
* Despite his reputation as a hard nose conservative while in the Senate, Brownback, like Joe Biden, worked well with the opposition party, including progressives such as Sen Kennedy and Sen Moynihan and Sen Clinton.
* He's currently the governor of Kansas, a relatively recession-proof state, which can't hurt. It's also smack dab in the Bible Belt which will solidify the Evangelical vote that’s squishy at best with a Mormon at the top of the ticket.
* As governor, Brownback has been one of the state leaders in resisting the Obamacare state mandates and defunding its implementation which dovetails with Romney's (current) position that healthcare should be state-driven.
* Although Brownback's strengths are in the Safe Republican states that Romney is sure to win, he does have the sort of Midwest Prairie appeal that will also help Romney win Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana -- three states Romney MUST win.
* He has long-time bona fide conservative credentials on social issues which contrasts with Romney's "evolving" social conservatism. Indeed, Brownback has been Far Right when the rest of the Party was still somewhat Center-Right.
* On the other hand he's relatively progressive on immigration which will be necessary to close the Latino gap after the hard stand Romney took during the primaries.
* Brownback endorsed Rick Perry way back in September, so picking Brownback may go a long way to bring the Perry, Santorum, and Gingrich camps under one tent.
* With Brownback you won't have the sort of unpredictable Palin problems that can sink a national campaign -- say what you want about his politics, he's a very smart, informed, and eloquent guy who can be fiery when he needs to be.
* Brownback is a likable and personable guy ('nuf said) with humble farming-family roots. He was born in Garnett, Kansas (pop 3,400) which is not too far from Wichita where Barack Obama's mother was born. He went to Kansas State and the University of Kansas, which contrasts sharply with Romney's privileged upbringing and Harvard education.
* Brownback already has some national campaign experience and has shown a desire for the position when he (briefly) ran for president in 2008.
Now, I do understand there was a silly Twitter controversy a few months back involving a Shawnee Mission high school student, but even that was handled deftly and with grace when Brownback said his staff "overreacted" and he issued the student an apology.
Should Obama be worried about a Romney/Brownback ticket? Well, Sam Brownback is no Sarah Palin, able to whip a crowd into a frenzy; but on the other hand Sam Brownback is no Sarah Palin, unable to name a single magazine she reads regularly.