New NBC/Marist polls are out this morning and they show that Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/...
The margins are slimmer then we saw earlier in the year as we would expect because there is a reason why these states are called swing states because they can swing either way and most likely will be tight all the way to election day.
Obama ahead in three critical battleground states:
In Florida and Virginia, Obama leads Romney by an identical four-point margin, 48 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a particular candidate.
In Ohio, the president is ahead by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.
What is benefiting Obama is these states? Two things
First is economic improvement:
Benefiting Obama in these three states is a sense that the economy has improved. Majorities in all three battlegrounds believe that the worst is behind us, rather than the worst is yet to come. That said, 40 percent or less think that the economy will get better in the next year.
Secondily, the gender gap:
And then there's the gender gap. Romney holds a narrow lead with men in all three states. But Obama has a double-digit edge among women (10 points in Florida and Virginia, and 12 points in Ohio).
Why is this Florida poll so different from the Quinnipiac poll for Florida? Simply because Quinnipiac used a higher Republican and Indie demographic then who most likely will vote in a general election particularly 2012.
http://www.stevenschale.com/...
Here in Florida, roughly 40% of voters are Democratic, 36% are Republican and the rest are minor or no party affiliated. Furthermore, about 67% of voters are white and roughly 13% are African-American (or Caribbean American) and the same are Hispanic.
In terms of what the electorate will look like on election day in 2012, by my estimate is it will be roughly 42% Democratic, 40% Republican and 18% minor/NPA -- and using 2008 as a bit of a guide, roughly 70% white, 13% African American (or Caribbean American) and 12-13% Hispanic.
The Q poll, which gave Mitt Romney a 6 point lead, weighed out at 37% Republican, 29% Democratic and 29% Independent. It also landed at over 80% white, 8% Hispanic and 7% African America and Caribbean American. There is no scenario where the Florida votes will look like this on Election Day 2012.
The bottom line is that the race is going to be tight regardless on election day but Obama has the electoral edge right now.