The BoE just released the preliminary Election Night tallies for NY-13, and they contain a lot of zeroes: http://www.scribd.com/... and http://www.scribd.com/...
What does this mean? There are still a lot of votes to be counted. Currently, there are 32 EDs yet to report and Rangel is up by 1,032 votes; however, the Election Night results are a bit out of date, and they have 63 EDs yet to report. Since we don't know which 31 EDs have come in since then, we'll pretend we're still at last night's numbers.
I looked at all of the EDs yet to report and estimated how many votes they would give to each candidate based on their surrounding EDs. This is not an exact measurement by any standard--I don't know how many people each ED has, so the numbers are based off of the surrounding districts; the geography of EDs usually follows their numbers, but that's not always the case; and taking an average of the prior and next ED (by number) is a really inexact way to predict votes. That said, let's look at what this method shows us:
(I'm terrible at making diaries fancy, and I don't have much time to post this. Therefore, I apologize for the ugliness of this data.)
What does this mean? Well, Espaillat's probably going to lose. But this won't be certain until after the absentee ballots are counted on Thursday. I assume those will break for Rangel, but if they go to Espaillat, even by a little, we may be looking at a nice long recount. It just goes to show: never concede when it's still early.
Edit: Whoops, I forgot the Bronx! (I didn't think they'd be in two separate documents.) As you can see, the predicted margin has narrowed, though Rangel still leads. Intriguing!