Hi there. Long time reader, first time diarist. I keep planning on starting my series of Right-Wing Children's Book Reviews, based on the birthday presents my crazy Republican in-laws get for my son, like this and this (links go to Amazon, for children's books written by relatives of recent Republican politicians), but there never seems to be enough time. So instead, my first diary will be the following:
I have this theory about Romney's tax returns. We're all getting really worked up about them. What could he be hiding? It's natural to speculate -- as partisans, we are all hoping for something really damaging in there (as if being an out-of-touch super rich guy who reminds everyone in the middle class of the guy that laid them off isn't damaging enough).
So here's the theory. I'm putting it below the fold, so you will have to do one more click than you otherwise would -- I'm mean that way.
The theory begins:
For a week or two, Romney will continue to sit on his tax returns and deny that he needs to release them. Speculation will continue. People will come up with theories about what could possibly be so damaging -- the rec list contains some excellent examples right now. "Reasonable" Republicans join in. John McCain will go on a Sunday talk show to talk about them. The speculation will continue -- and get wilder.
Then, on a Friday afternoon a few weeks from now, the Romney campaign will grudgingly release five or six years of tax returns.
And they won't be nearly as bad as all the speculation.
They will show that Romney is a really rich guy, who used the system, legally, to pay a low percentage of his income in taxes. Perhaps as low as 5% or even 3%. Not zero for one or more years, as has been speculated.
And then it will all blow over. The media will lose interest, because the tax returns won't live up to the hype. Good folks who actually care about tax fairness will claim justification ("see, the rich man pays way less than his assistant!") but those claims will not be widely heard, because there won't be anything in there about amnesty for Swiss bank accounts and other campaign-ending revelations.
And from that point on, Mitt Romney gets to play the "I've already released my tax returns" card whenever anyone asks about it. Tax fairness will no longer be a very effective issue in the campaign. Nobody will be taken seriously if they ask for more (say, ten years instead of five). Romney will continue to be an out-of-touch rich guy who reminds everyone in the middle class of the guy who laid them off, and he still probably won't win in November, but he can use this to defuse the damage that simply releasing the tax returns would do.
So that's my theory. I hope it doesn't come true -- I hope that Romney does in fact have something incredibly damaging in his tax returns, and that he continues to stonewall and refuse to release anything more, right up until the day of the election. But I'm concerned that we're getting carried away with the speculation and getting our hopes up too high.
I'm mostly posting this so that, if my theory proves to be true, I can post the Stephen Colbert "I Called It!" picture, which is on my bucket list. There's no call to action here -- just a gentle reminder that low expectations are one of the keys to happiness. And to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. And, uh... well, insert your favorite cliche here. That's all.
5:01 PM PT: Update: I'm grateful for the comments pointing out how unlikely this is. I find it very reassuring that the most likely explanation is that I'm overthinking this, and Romney's campaign just isn't capable of the rope-a-dope, and Romney's history shows that he is very unlikely to release his tax returns (it's the one area where he has been consistent for almost 20 years), and even if this was some kind of dastardly plan, the tax returns themselves would most likely still be damaging to the campaign. Thank you for the comments!