The President
is about to embark on a fairly long 3 day bus tour of the state. He isn't touching Des Moines, but is mostly hitting swing areas.
Nate Silver has dubbed the state the 'forgotten battleground' as there is a dearth of polling. PPP had Obama up +5 in July. Ras had Romney up +2 last week. Setting aside Ras, do any Iowan Kossacks have an opinion on how the President is doing there? The drought has been severe. Has that impacted Obama's support at all? On the one hand, if the President is up in the national polls, his current standing in Iowa should be +4 - +7 points.
On the other hand, local factors might be keeping Iowa in a holding pattern.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/...
The trip was planned weeks ago and would seem to give the President a unique opportunity to invest time in Iowa before the conventions start, so that he doesn't have to go back there as often or for as long during the fall campaign. As there are only 8 or 9 battleground states in the mix, it would make sense. In other words, he is looking to solidify and lock the state up. GOPers are referring to the trip as a sign of panic and Romney has clearly made an investment in the state as did the entire GOP during the caucuses. As Nate says, Iowa should be a lean Obama state, where Obama wins by about 5-6 points. But, I don't know. So I'd like to know what people think on this. Any thoughts?