Since I heard about Mitt's choice for running mate I have been trying to figure out what Mitt was thinking... why did he choose Paul Ryan on a Saturday?
I'll be honest here, I am not a political scientist and I am not a sociologist. Since he announced his campaign I have read a lot about him (and the other candidates - but Mitt always stood out to me as odd). My self-education has led me distrust Mitt Romney and I think that he is capable of thinking in ways which confound the pundits and victimizes his own party.
Since his VP announcement, I've been reading a ton of diaries and lots of news items. I've looked extensively on this site, HuffPo, RedState (which for some reason crashes FireFox each time I go there), and many of the mainstream news web sites. All of them are rife with speculation and opinion. However, all of them have left me in doubt.
With regard to the timing: some believe that Mitt panicked because of falling poll numbers. Some say that he decided earlier this month and that he couldn't keep the press from reporting it after the Olympics.
With regard to the choice: I've read that his staff didn't like Ryan as a choice, but Mitt wanted Ryan so Ryan it is. Generally, if you're a Republican droid you think the choice was bold. If you're a Republican that still thinks critically you are thinking WTF? If you're a Democrat you think the choice is crazy goodness with John Boutte's version of Leonard Cohen's Hallelujah playing softly in the background.
But none of this sat well with me, I still couldn't get my head around why Ryan, on Saturday, in Virginia, with the Battleship. I don't see Rmoney as an idiot (he couldn't have gotten where he is today, or through Harvard, if he was stupid) and I don't think he panics easily (he can't stretch the truth the way he does if he doesn't have the guts to do so). But I do believe the man is a cold, calculating, narcissist who would take the Republican party down with him to win the presidency. I think that if Mitt can't get what he feels he deserves: trust from the neo-cons and the Tea Party, love from the right wing media pundits (Rush, Glen, Sean, et. al.), and the full support from his party's leadership; he'll just take the party hostage and dare the party faithful to not give him what he desires.
The Ryan Choice
So how do you hold a political party hostage? First you have to determine what the party desires most. Second, you need to take control of what they desire. And third, you need to set the ransom.
Defining The Target
For the Republicans, their most important goal is implementing supply side (or "Trickle Down") economics - this includes lowering tax rates, killing entitlements, and increasing the defense budget so there's more money for the "job creators". It's an idea they feel is within their grasp. The Republicans have also invested a tremendous amount of political capital (and cash) into their plan. They have been slowly building the members needed to craft a majority by controlling the supply side narrative, managing the Tea Party members, testing the party's resolve over two consecutive years with nearly unanimous party votes each time, and having the same highly acclaimed (by the Republicans) and well regarded (by the Republicans) front man, Paul Ryan, present the plan through each of its iterations and votes.
Remember how we were saying that if we didn't get the ACA passed in 2009 we would probably have to wait another generation before we can try again? I am sure the Republicans feel the same way about supply side - especially considering the demographic issues they are going to be facing over the next 5 to 10 years.
So Mitt now has his target. Next he needs to take control of it.
Assuming Control
To control a plan, you need to control the planners. Fortunately for Mitt, all of the Republicans were pointing at one person as the key supply side planner. That person would be Paul Ryan, and Ryan had the added bonuses of backing from the Tea Party, positive press from the RWNJ Radio clan, and being a member of the party's leadership in Congress. So if Mitt could control Ryan, he could assume control of the future of the Republican supply side goal.
Regardless of Ryan's political chops, my guess is that he was no match for Mitt. Rmoney had already said that Ryan's plan was "fabulous" and that he would sign it into law if it reached the President's desk. The lure of being on the ticket with a guy who claimed to share many of Ryan's philosophies was probably too much for poor Paul to resist. Mitt probably turned on the charm, impressed with this wealth, and stroked Ryan's ego with promises of becoming President in 8 years or maybe even less. When it came time to close the deal Paul Ryan was probably putty in Mitt's hands.
Setting the Ransom
By making Ryan the VP nominee, Mitt has taken supply side economics and it's spokesman hostage. Mitt's ransom – support me or your dogma is dead.
Why Now?
Mitt had to know that his messaging battle was losing against President Obama's. On top of his debacle overseas, Andrea Saul was being pilloried for mentioning Romneycare by members of his own party. With the polls showing him slipping, and the Tea Partiers at sites like RedState expressing doubts about his conservatism (again), Mitt was left with no choice but to resort to Plan B - no businessman is going to embark on a major project without a backup plan.
Plan B is basically going nuclear on the Republican party (don't forget, Mitt “earned” his turn). Basically Mitt is saying, “If you won't STFU, I will make you shut up by taking control of your key policy and its golden boy spokesman.”
The Plan B supply-side, wasteful government convention has to have somewhat different messaging than the one which was going to be a 4 day slamfest on the President and all of his “failings”. So the Saturday announcement was made to make sure that everything would be in place in time for Tampa. Sure, the President is going to be hammered during MittFest, but there will also need to be speeches which set up and frame the supply-side argument for the believers.