Looking at Presidential Election data since 1964 we see a well-established trend that will be a--no the--major factor in who is going to be the next POTUS: there is a growing gap between men in women in turnout each election.
This trend, shown below, is very strong and very easy to see. Very simply, if Romney wins men by the same percentage that Obama wins women, then he is toast.
Data comes from the US Census Bureau and Rutgers University:
Year Number Female Voters, in Millions, More than Male Voters
1964 1.7
1968 3
1972 4
1976 4.5
1980 5.5
1984 7.1
1988 6.8
1992 7.3
1996 7.2
2000 6.2
2004 8.8
2008 9.7
More below.
As you can see above, 9.7 million more women than men voted in the 2008 election and there is a very clear trend toward this gap increasing. In fact, in 2008 53.7% of voters were women.
There is also a growing gap and clear trend if we compare the percent of eligible female vs male voters who turned out in each election.
Year Percent of Eligible Female Voters who Turned Out Minus
the Percent of Eligible Male Voters who Turned Out
1964 -4.9
1968 -3.8
1972 -2.1
1976 -0.8
1980 0.3
1984 1.8
1988 1.9
1992 2.1
1996 2.7
2000 3.1
2004 3.8
2008 4.7
In 2008 60.4 % of eligible women voted vs 55.7% of eligible men, so +4.7% for women in the most recent election. Also note, this number has been moving in one direction for at least 40 years. It is very, very, very difficult to imagine that it will be this, of all elections, which reverses this long-standing trend. Are there women out there thinking, "Yeah, I was going to vote Dem, but the pure crazy of the GOP on women's issues drew me in like a moth to the flame!"? No, I don't think so.
If we take the average increase in these numbers from the 1964-2008 data period, we could guess that women will over-represent men in the 2012 electorate by 10.4 million votes and 5.6 percent in turnout.
A more modest estimate, using data since 1988 when the trend seem to have slowed a bit, would have women over-representing men by 10.0 million votes and 5.2% percent in turnout. Yes, that is the conservative estimate! The men in the GOP seems to be aching to push female turnout to new highs with their attacks on choice, pay equity, birth control, etc. It is easy to see how Obama could sweep the swing states in such a scenario.
You have to give credit to Team Obama. With all the various advantages the Obama team has to press: young voters, labor, African-Americans, Latinos . . . I for one am impressed, and heartened, that they seized the correct advantage to put the bulk of their weight behind. Pointing out that the GOP is waging a War on Women not only helps with women voters, but it also helps with all demographics for the obvious reason that no demo is less than 50% female.
If we can continue to build this advantage through election day, this election will be a very decisive victory for Democrats and one that will be impossible for the current Tea Party dominated GOP to respond to in future cycles. Until they completely reject the current strain of anti-female policies, the GOP will not sniff the White House.
If you are a GOP campaign strategy tonight, you might as well adopt as your motto this paraphrase of Walt Kelly's famous utterance, "I have seen the enemy, and he is she!"