All seniors, including today's current seniors will have to pay more for their healthcare and Medicare under the Romney/Ryan proposal, a new study by the Center for American Progress finds. Medicare and healthcare costs will be increased by $7,000 for current seniors to as much as $225,000 for future seniors.
Using data from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and other government agencies along with parameters from published academic research studies, this study analyzes the impact of the Romney-Ryan plan on current and future seniors and shows that the increase in health care costs under the Romney-Ryan plan would be financially debilitating for all seniors. We detail these findings in the pages that follow, but briefly here are the findings.
Seniors currently enrolled in Medicare who have cynically (in an attempt to drive a wedge between them and younger Americans) been promised that their Medicare will be safe, will not be
spared if 'Obamacare' is repealed.
Current seniors would also have to pay more for preventive, hospital, and physician services should Romney and Ryan repeal the Affordable Care Act, facing an increase in health spending of between $7,900 and $18,600 over the course of their retirement.
The first cut-off group, those that are 54 years old today, will be the first ones to receive vouchers, or 'premium support' to pay for Medicare, and will incur $66,000 in additional costs, with further increases every subsequent year.
Current Seniors
Gov. Romney and Rep. Ryan claim that no one over 55 will be affected by their health care plan. This claim is false. Their plan would harm all seniors. The Romney-Ryan plan would hurt current seniors in two important ways:
Increased drug costs and higher Medicare premiums. By repealing the Affordable Care Act, the Romney-Ryan plan would raise health care costs in retirement by $11,000 for the average person who is 65 years old today.
Increased long-term care costs, including increased costs for nursing home care, because of cuts to Medicaid. A substantial share of Medicaid spending pays for health care costs for Medicare beneficiaries. The Romney-Ryan Medicaid cuts mean a loss of over $2,500 annually for seniors currently on Medicare who also rely on Medicaid. Unlike the Medicare voucher system that would begin in 2023 the cuts to Medicaid would begin almost immediately.
Future Seniors
The first seniors to get vouchers, or premium support, for their Medicare (under 55yo today) will incur $60,000 in additional costs while younger beneficiaries will have to find as much as $250,000 in additional funds to pay for their healthcare in retirement.
For seniors who will become eligible for Medicare after 2022, the financial harm would be even worse.
Increasingly unaffordable costs for all seniors who qualify for Medicare after 2022.
For seniors turning 65 in 2023, Medicare costs during retirement would increase by $59,500 in 2012 dollars under the Romney-Ryan plan. Because under the Romney-Ryan plan the amount of seniors’ vouchers will not keep pace with rising health care costs, these numbers are even worse for future generations. In today’s dollars seniors who qualify for Medicare in 2030 would see an increase of $124,600 in Medicare costs over their retirement. Seniors who qualify for Medicare in 2040 will see an increase of $216,600. And by 2050 newly eligible seniors will pay $331,200 more in Medicare costs over their retirement.
Additional costs from private plans cherry picking healthier patients.
Three-fourths of all Medicare beneficiaries are currently in traditional Medicare. The Romney-Ryan plan would include traditional Medicare as an option in the proposed program, but the costs for seniors who choose to remain in the traditional Medicare program would likely increase even more sharply than for seniors who chose a private plan. Most analysts expect the traditional Medicare plan to attract Medicare beneficiaries with the greatest health needs. In that case, Medicare would no longer enjoy a balanced risk pool and seniors choosing traditional Medicare could wind up paying an extra $29,000 on average over their retirement lifetime above and beyond the costs described above.
Here is a summary showing how the younger someone is today the more their costs will increase in retirement, in total dollars and as a percentage of income.
Because the Romney-Ryan voucher would grow more slowly than health care costs, seniors would become responsible for a greater share of the premium over time. We find that the Romney-Ryan plan’s cost-shifting effect alone would raise the average health care bill:
For seniors reaching age 65 in 2023 by $32,900
For seniors reaching age 66 in 2030 by $73,600
For seniors reaching age 67 in 2040 by $139,100
For seniors reaching age 67 in 2050 by $225,200
This significant increase in health care costs for seniors in the future due to this cost-shifting effect would consume 8 percent of their lifetime Social Security benefits for those turning 65 in 2023, 17 percent of lifetime Social Security benefits for those turning 66 in 2030, 30 percent of lifetime Social Security benefits for those turning 67 in 2040, and 42 percent of lifetime Social Security benefits for those turning 67 in 2050.
The cuteness of this chart unfortunately belies the bad news it contains.
To date the 'Medicare bomb' has not exploded as the issue it was expected to be when Mitt Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate. No doubt the Romney campaign lies about the $761 billion 'raid' on Medicare by President Obama is somewhat responsible for that, so it is vitally important that this information be disseminated.
Democrats thought Paul Ryan’s Medicare proposal would shift the focus away from Mitt Romney, terrify the elderly and take places like Florida and other key states off the table.
Polls and interviews show that for now, Romney’s selection of Ryan hasn’t fundamentally shifted the dynamics of a deadlocked race.
The polls leave no question that huge numbers of people oppose the core of Ryan’s plan. But they show something else too: Democrats haven’t yet been able to turn that opposition into a way to take down the Romney-Ryan ticket.
After Paul Ryan's speech yesterday full of lies about everything, including Medicare, we know more lies are coming fast and hard. We can't let the GOP get away with their lies about Medicare this election. It is vitally important that we push back on these lies, to young and old voters alike. No one is spared in the Romney Ryan budget and voters must know.