We got a few new key swing state polls in today, and we're seeing a continuation of what we saw last week -- Obama's standing is improving in crucial states like Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. We are also starting to see the extent of damage done by Romney's 47% comments.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
We got a few new key swing state polls in today, and we're seeing a continuation of what we saw last week -- Obama's standing is improving in crucial states like Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. We are also starting to see the extent of damage done by Romney's 47% comments.
First the numbers, then my analysis.
* OHIO: Obama 51%, Romney 46% - Obama +2% net since August (Ohio UC Poll)
* FLORIDA: Obama 50%, Romney 46% - Obama +3% net since Labor Day (Public Policy)
* FLORIDA: Obama 48%, Romney 47% - No change since July (Mason-Dixon)
* COLORADO: Obama 51%, Romney 45% - Obama +3% net since Labor Day (Public Policy)
* NEBRASKA (2nd District): Obama 44%, Romney 44% (Wiese Research)
At this point, pretty much every pollster is showing a pretty significant shift to Obama in Ohio, he has led in eight straight polls there, and his average lead is now 4.1%. It's worth noting that this poll found that 58% of Ohio residents approve of the auto bailout while just 37% disapprove. The Obama campaign has made the auto bailout a focus of their campaign in Ohio and it seems to be working. At this point, Ohio is clearly the biggest problem Romney is facing, as he is falling further behind in the state, but has no real path to victory without it.
Florida remains close, but the Public Policy poll revealed some interesting data that sheds a lot of light on how voters are digesting Romeny's 47% comments from last week, as well as other notes.
* 58% of Florida's Independent voters say Romeny's 47% comments were inappropriate, while just 37% said they were OK. Independents now favor Obama 51% to 40%.
* Romney's favorability rating has dropped a net 9% since Labor Day and is now at 44% favorable, 51% unfavorable.
* Obama's approval rating in Florida is up to 51%, its highest level since April.
* Obama is absolutely trouncing Romney among women in Florida -- 55% to 41%.
* Democrats now have the enthusiasm advantage in Florida -- 72% of Democrats say they're "very excited" to vote, 68% of Republicans say they're "very excited."
And the Colorado number is the best one for Obama in awhile. Obama has now led in the last 10 out of 11 Colorado polls, with this latest one showing his largest lead. The key notes from the poll's internals are:
* Obama is up 65% to 29% among Hispanics AND leads 49% to 48% among whites.
* Obama leads among men (51% to 46%) and women (52% to 44%).
* 38% said Romney's 47% comments make them less likely to vote for him, 27% said more likely.
* Obama is up 51% to 41% among Independents.
* When third party candidates are included, Obama leads 49% to 43%.
And possibly the most interesting new poll -- Nebraska's 2nd district (mostly the city of Omaha) is once again in play this year with Obama and Romney tied there at 44%. Obama won the district, and its one delegate, in 2008. There are very few scenarios where this one electoral vote would matter either way in the electoral college, but it's still an interesting thing to keep an eye on.
Right now, it seems that whatever bump Obama is getting from Romney's 47% comments is still ongoing, as we are just now seeing polls that encompass reaction after what was a full week of non-stop media coverage of the comments, along with the growing sense that Romney was falling behind. We will find out from polls released this week how high that bounce gets, or if it has reached its highest point. At this point, it is pretty clear that Obama is leading in every single swing state, with Colorado and North Carolina looking like toss-ups. The damage from the 47% comments is looking very real.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.