Week 6 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: And what a week it was for ratings changes. All of the changes have moved towards the Democrats this week except New Mexico, and I'm not sure it's real. Going alphabetically: Bill Nelson (D) has taken an 83.3-16.7 lead over Connie Mack IV in Florida, moving over the 80% threshold to be removed form the board. Last week my Intrading the Senate post was only up an hour when commenters pointed out that the Massachusetts race had changed, with Warren pulling ahead. Michigan is now off the board as Stabenow has been over the 80% level for 2 weeks. New Mexico is the exception to the moves, as Heinrich (D) no longer holds an 80% probability. And last but DEFINITELY not least, Baldwin has taken a lead over Thompson in Wisconsin.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 70.1 - 29.9. Carmona made up about 10 points this week. Republican hold
Connecticut: Murphy(D) leads McMahon (R) 73.5 - 26.5. Murphy lenghens his lead by 10 points. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 83.3 - 16.7. Nelson lengthens his lead. He's now over the 80% mark, if he keeps it this one goes off the board next week. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 52.6 - 47.4. Donnely continues to move up. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Warren(D) leads Brown(R) 58.5 - 41.5. As I mentioned above, several commenters pointed out that between the time I pulled the data last week and when I posted it Warren surged ahead. She's still there. Democratic Pickup
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 66.7 - 33.3. McCaskill gains as the date for Akin to withdraw draws near. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D) 62.2 - 37.8. Tester loses some of the momentum of that last couple weeks as REhlberg widens his lead. Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 60.3 - 39.7. Berkley picks up about 9 points. Republican Hold
New Mexico: Heinrich(D) leads Wilson(R) 71.5 - 28.5. This race is the epitome of thinly traded race. Literally there had been no trades in this race for months. This week there were a few. You can tell by the uncorrected percentages that something is wrong. They show Heinrich with a 95% chance to win, and Wilson with a 37.8% chance to win. Both can't be right. Normalizing these results takes it to the reported 71.5 - 28.5. But with the rules set up, this is now somewhat of a race. I'm not believing it. Democratic Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 62.0 - 38.0. It seems these alternate weeks to gain. This week Heitkamp gained about 13 points. Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 60.2 - 39.8. Brown is close to putting this one away. Democratic Hold
Virginia: Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) 65.2 - 34.8. Kaine seems to have taken control of this race. Democratic hold
Wisconsin: Baldwin(D) leads Thompson(R) 63.9 - 36.1. Wow. The big surprise of the week. Thompson had several weeks over 70%, threatening to take this one off the board. Now a complete reversal. Democratic Hold
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Michigan (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
Results: So the current Intrade tally is 3 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota with a Democratic pickup (Massachusetts) an Independent pickup (Maine)).
Final Score:
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 48 Republicans - 52 Democrats (including 2 independents).