The nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the USA will be officially awarded in over three and half years from now. As of now, nobody knows who that will be, but what is certain is that the two front runners probably won't get it.
The Democratic Party doesn't like the concept of divine right, except if the person is an incumbent president, presumptive front runners three years early almost always lose, just ask Presidents Muskie, Scoop Jackson, Hart, Cuomo, Gephardt and Hillary Clinton.
I was listening to Chris Matthews on the television the other day, and since he and his posse have nothing much to talk about other than actual public policy, they were playing fantasy primary bowl. President Obama had just had a joint interview with Hillary Clinton in order to give her a victory lap before her retirement, and Chris and his friends were kvelling over the fact that Hillary had the nomination all sewn up, and imagined that the president would tell the vice president to get out of the race soon in order to give it to Hillary because she's such a wonderful secretary of state and she's a woman and Biden shouldn't stand against the tide of history. Thus he should step aside.
I know how Joe would respond: "With all due respect Mr. President, fuck you and the horse you rode in on." Hillary doesn't own anything, at this moment, no one does.
Looking back in history, and i know it doesn't count for much, the front runner three years out almost never wins. The only two who managed to do it were Vice Presidents, Walter Mondale (who almost lost), and Al Gore, who was considered Clinton's third term. Gore, BTW, almost lost the NH primary to Bill Bradley.
Hillary knows this. She knows that she had it all sewn up, wrapped tight in a little bow, and then she blew it. She was beaten by a nobody from nowhere who had made only one speech anyone had ever heard of.
Since they changed the rules in 1971, nobodies from nowhere have almost always managed to win the democratic nomination. McGovern, Carter, Dukakis, Clinton, Obama. Four years out, nobody had any idea who these people were outside their home states. Bill Clinton had been on the Tonight show. ONCE. Jimmy Carter? Nobody took him seriously until he won the New Hampshire primary. Mike Dukakis? Nobody outside Massachusetts had a clue to who he was until he had actually won the nomination. Talk about left field.
There are plenty of good people out there who may have a chance. It's wide open, yeah, incumbent Vice presidents have a leg up for the nomination, but only George H.W. Bush managed to actually get elected. Obama will be in his mid-fifties when he leaves office and Biden and Hillary are almost a generation older. She nearly DIED last December. I'm ten years younger than she is and already I'm getting junk mail from the AARP.
In the late 1970s, former President Gerald Ford set up an exploratory committee to see if it would be a good idea to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to win a non-consecutive term. He found out he could, but he'd actually have to run for the job, so he dropped out of the race. Which brings me back to Hillary Clinton. If she wants it, she's going to have to run for it. That means a full time job for two and a half years before election day.
She has her husband's foundation and all the speaking engagements she could ask for. She's already run for president as a sure thing and LOST. She's also said that she doesn't want to run.
Hillary fans, give it up. Find a friend to run for the State Assembly in some red state, it'll do some real good.