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8:13 AM PT: MA-Sen: Oy:
Ed Markey leads our first general election Massachusetts poll 44-40...full results will be up by noon
— @ppppolls via web
9:15 AM PT: MA-Sen: PPP warned us that their new Massachusetts poll would depict a close race, and they weren't kidding. Fresh off Tuesday's primary, here's where things stand:
Ed Markey (D): 44
Gabriel Gomez (R): 40
Undecided: 16
Those aren't numbers any Democrat likes to see, but in a way, they aren't terribly surprising. While safely blue on the presidential level, Massachusetts isn't the Democratic lock it's often assumed to be further down the ballot. And it's not just a matter of Scott Brown, either. The state saw an uninterrupted string of Republican governors from 1991 through 2007; the last Democrat to hold the office before Deval Patrick was none other than Michael Dukakis. John Kerry, too, had his share of less-than-blowout victories, winning his first race in 1984 by a 55-45 spread and then holding off Gov. Bill Weld 52-45 in 1996. And in 1994,
a number of polls showed a guy named Mitt Romney neck-and-neck with Sen. Ted Kennedy.
Kennedy, though, went on to win that year by 18 points, one of several instances where Bay State Republicans got close (or close-ish) but couldn't seal the deal. Brown, of course, was the huge exception to that, but will businessman Gabriel Gomez be the next Scott Brown, or the next Mitt Romney? That's the number one question on everyone's minds.
Gomez right now is more popular than Rep. Ed Markey, with a 41-27 favorability rating versus 44-41 for the Democrat. And he's keeping things close thanks to his 47-31 lead with independents, as well as the fact that he's drawing 21 percent of Democrats. Some of these may be folks who voted for Rep. Stephen Lynch in the primary who, as Tom Jensen puts it, may be "a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general." (Lynch did immediately endorse Markey, though, so hopefully he won't be reluctant to keep stumping on his behalf.) Jensen adds, though, that Brown held a 64-32 lead with independents in their final 2010 poll, so Gomez still has a lot of ground to make up if he's going to be the next Scott Brown.
In 2012, one aspect of PPP's Massachusetts polling continually stood out: Undecided voters were much more likely to favor Democrats than Republicans. That's why, even though the head-to-head matchups between Brown and Elizabeth Warren often appeared close, Warren had the edge, since those last few up-for-grabs voters had a strong predilection for Team Blue. The big difference between then and now is that Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket, drawing out lots of voters who won't show up for an early summer special election. Indeed, as Jensen notes, this sample is about 5 points more favorable to Mitt Romney than the 2012 election results were.
But even without Obama, Massachusetts is still a blue state. The undecideds in this poll went for Obama by an 18-point margin last fall, include more self-identified liberals than conservatives, and are over 60 percent female. Those are all positives for Markey, and if he can avoid stumbles and self-inflicted wounds, he should be able to win over the bulk of those undecided voters.
It's far from a walkover, though. Gomez may look like a proverbial fresh face, so Markey is going to have to make voters aware of his true ideology—and that a Gomez win would put Mitch McConnell and the GOP one seat closer to regaining control of the Senate. In other words, he's going to have to run a normal, competitive campaign and not simply coast in the belief that "Massachusetts would never elect a Republican senator."
The other question here is whether national Republicans will commit any money to Gomez. After all, this is only one poll, and while the GOP would love to torment Democrats in Massachusetts yet again, the NRSC may conclude that this race is fool's gold, and that they'd rather save their pennies for next fall. Indeed, whoever wins this seat would have to run again in 2014 for the full six-year term, which means Republicans would need to immediately defend this seat again. That wouldn't be an easy task, but it would certainly be easier than trying to wrest the seat from a Sen. Markey, which would probably be almost impossible.)
The biggest difference between now and the 2010 special that elected Scott Brown, though, is the general political environment—the backdrop, if you will. Three years ago, the economy still felt like it was in free fall to many voters, negative headlines about the Affordable Care Act were a daily feature, and conservatives were convinced that electing Brown would derail the ACA and bring the Democratic agenda to a dead halt. None of that is true today. Indeed, Jensen observes that Obama's job approval rating in Massachusetts stands at 53-41 now, versus 44-43 when Brown won.
And there's also the Martha Coakley factor, which is to say that Democrats are damn well determined not to get caught sleeping a second time. That just means, though, that Democrats know they have to work hard to make sure this seat stays blue. Markey may have a small edge, but from now until the special election on June 25, it's nose to the grindstone and absolutely no letting up.
11:27 AM PT: SC-01: In her final ad before Tuesday's special election, Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch says "We need a balanced budget amendment" and calls for a ban on "special interest earmarks" before pledging to cut her own pay 10 percent. An somewhat older Colbert Busch spot has also surfaced, in which she pushes back against Mark Sanford's attacks against her on Boeing, then turns around and hammers him over his Argentina AWOL adventures.
11:41 AM PT: AZ-Sen: More bad approvals for GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, this time from the Behavior Research Center (PDF), but there are a whole bunch of caveats. First, the poll was conducted before Flake's vote against expanded background checks, and second, the poll was in the field for an incredibly long 14 days, which is about four or five times longer than is typical. Also, like UNH did with their Kelly Ayotte numbers, BRC sat on this poll for an additional two-and-a-half weeks after conducting it, which I really don't get. Oh, and the use a five-point excellent-good-fair-poor-very poor rating scale, which just kinda drives me nuts because what does "fair" mean?
Plus, they combine the first two and last two ratings, so all we know is that Flake gets 18 percent excellent/good, 25 percent fair, and 26 poor/very poor. The one helpful data point is that because BRC has been polling a long time, they're able to compare Flake's numbers with those of the man he succeeded, Sen. Jon Kyl, from a very similar time in Kyl's first year in office back in 1997. At the time, Kyl had a 34-34-12 rating, which makes Flake's look like weak in contrast.
11:53 AM PT: Maps: Here's an awesome, huge collection of historical maps (38,000 of them!) that junkies are sure to love. Publishing company owner David Rumsey has been collecting old maps for over thirty years. Now they are all available online via a partnership with the recently launched Digital Public Library of America. As Rebecca Rosen explains, the DPLA's portal allows users to view Rumsey's maps in context: Navigate to this
12:08 PM PT: GA-01: The race is on to succeed Rep. Jack Kingston, who just announced that he's running for Senate. One Republican, state Sen. Buddy Carter, has already declared his intention to run, while another, former Kingston staffer Jeff Chapman, says he's considering the race. However, state Rep. Ben Watson says he's a no.
1:10 PM PT: CA-St. Sen: Holy moly. Check out the spending in this California state Senate race. Democrat Leticia Perez is shelling out an amazing $600,000 on television ads ahead of the May 21 special election, while Republican Andy Vidak has forked over $240,000. In addition, a third-party group called Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy is also spending $90,000 of their own to help Perez. They appear to be funded heavily by energy giant Chevron, which employs none other than Michael Rubio, the state senator whose unexpected resignation prompted this special election in the first place. And Perez used to work for Rubio. She's favored to win, but I guess she's not taking any chances. Nor is Chevron.
2:05 PM PT: IL-13: Judge Ann Callis, who has been considering a challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Rodney Davis, has resigned from the bench in order to run for Congress. At the same time, 2012 nominee David Gill, who had also reportedly been contemplating another bid, was just named Assistant Director of the Illinois Department of Public Health by Gov. Pat Quinn. Callis appears to be the establishment choice, but even with Gill out of the picture, she may not have a clear path to the nomination, since University of Illinois Prof. George Gollin sounds interested in running, too. It's not clear how much of an obstacle he'd be, though.
2:57 PM PT: Colorado: The state of Colorado is on the verge of implementing some major changes to its election laws, something only possible because Democrats regained full control of the legislature last fall. The new legislation, which now goes to Gov. John Hickenlooper for his expected signature, would move Colorado to an all-mail voting system and would also allow for same-day registration.
Naturally, Republicans oppose both of these moves, since they would expand the franchise and make it easier to vote. Reid Wilson also notes that Democrats have gotten especially good at mobilizing the early vote, and obviously an all-mail system is functionally an all-early system, too. But for all their carping, the GOP's only choice is to try to play catch-up, because these changes are about to become reality.