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Leading Off:
• VA-Gov: God, Ken Cuccinelli's pushback to PPP's new poll showing Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a 5-point lead in the Virginia gubernatorial race is super pathetic:
In response, the Virginia attorney general's camp touted a poll of their own: this one from the Republican-leaning firm, "Republican Republican Republican (RRR)." The mock poll showed Cuccinelli leading McAuliffe by a whopping 12 points, carrying an impressive margin of error of 0.00 percent.
Did these new pollsters attend
Republican Campaign Manager School? Of course, PPP absolutely nailed Virginia last cycle, perfectly predicting both
President Barack Obama's and
Sen. Tim Kaine's margins of victory, so it's especially telling that Cuccinelli hasn't released contradictory internal polling of his own. But I always enjoy it when Republicans stick their heads in the sand and plug up their ears whenever PPP releases numbers they don't like. If they want to be wrong, so much the better.
P.S. McAuliffe is out with his third ad, a boring spot in which he says Virginians care about "job growth" and "economic development," and don't want to pursue a "divisive ideological agenda" (obviously a reference to Cuccinelli's conservatism). Someone needs to tell T-Mac to slow down and not speak so quickly.
Senate:
• AR-Sen: Mark Pryor is getting jammed from all sides: Shortly after the announcement that Bloomberg World would him on the airwaves over his anti-gun control stance, there's a new ad coming after him from the right. It's from the Senate Conservatives Fund (Jim DeMint's old group); the spot isn't gun-specific but more generally ties Pryor to Barack Obama. The buy is $320,000, pretty large for Arkansas's small media markets, which suggests that the real target here might not even be Pryor, but GOP freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. The SCF very much wants to lure him into the race (Republicans seem to be getting antsy), and this offers a demonstration that they'll have his back financially. (David Jarman)
• HI-Sen: I've sort of been wondering what kind of ideological divide, if any, we might see emerge between Sen. Brian Schatz and his challenger in the Democratic primary, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. One issue has indeed already come up, and Honolulu Civil Beat's Kery Murakami explains:
In a move that highlights a key policy difference with Sen. Brian Schatz, Colleen Hanabusa is scheduled to be a guest speaker on a telephone "Town Hall" meeting sponsored by an organization opposing a bill co-sponsored by Schatz.
The measure, sponsored by Sen. John Rockefeller, D-W.Va., would try to reduce federal Medicare spending and cut the overall federal debt by making drug companies pay a rebate to the federal government. Among its supporters is the AARP, which argues the rebates are preferable to other Medicare cost-cutting measures like raising the co-pays or increasing age requirements for Medicare recipients.
However, Hanabusa, who is running against Schatz for his Senate seat, has opposed the idea, signing a letter last year saying drug companies would pass on the cost of the rebate to consumers.
The call ("It's not a lobbying thing," swore the organizer) actually took place last week (the piece I'm linking is a week old). As for the underlying issue itself, you can click the link for the nitty-gritty, but the bottom line is that it's pitting the AARP against the pharmaceutical industry. I'm hard-pressed to think of a time when siding with Big Pharma represented the more progressive position.
• NE-Sen, NE-01: Gov. Dave Heineman's decision not to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Mike Johanns was supposed to open the floodgates for new candidates, but all we've gotten so far is another pass from one of the state's biggest names (though it's probably not a surprise). Jeff Fortenberry, who has represented the Lincoln-area NE-01 since 2004, said he'll stick with his House seat instead. Fortenberry is the most moderate of the state's GOP House delegation, and would be a particularly strong general election candidate (not that the GOP would have much trouble here in November, regardless of its candidate), but might have difficulty with the primary.
The same article also mentions that former state Treasurer Shane Osborn is reportedly "expected to enter" soon. And there's one other new name bubbling up: Ben Sasse, a former assistant Sec. of Health and Human Services and current president of Midland University (a Lutheran school with 1,100 students in Fremont). (David Jarman)
• NH-Sen: Anti-gambling activist Jim Rubens, who served as a state senator for a couple of terms in the 1990s, says he's considering a run against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen next year. Rubens has had success in thwarting attempts to allow casino gambling in New Hampshire in recent years, but he's also apparently pro-choice and a climate change non-denialist, which you have to figure would make it quite hard for him to win a GOP primary. This ain't Warren Rudman's party anymore—and hasn't been for a long time.
• VA-Sen: Virginia's 2014 Senate race wouldn't even be that competitive if one of the state's top-tier Republicans were running, according to Public Policy Polling's new sample ... so, considering that a much lower-profile GOPer is probably going to be the candidate, the race is shaping up to be a real non-event. They find freshman Dem Senator Mark Warner the state's most popular politician with 53/27 approvals, and have him at 50 percent or better against well-known Republicans. He leads outgoing Gov. Bob McDonnell 50-39, Rep. Eric Cantor 53-34, and outgoing Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling 54-33.
Recently elected fellow Sen. Tim Kaine is a bit less popular, with 44/38 approvals. What's really popular in Virginia is expanded background checks for gun purchases, which has 77-16 support. (David Jarman)
Gubernatorial:
• AK-Gov: The good news is, Democrats may be able to put forth a credible candidate in next year's Alaska gubernatorial race. Republican incumbent Sean Parnell presents a tough target on paper in this red state, but his approval ratings are pretty middling currently, thanks to his role in changing Alaska's controversial oil tax structure. The bad news is, if he runs, we're going to have to learn how to spell his name. State Sen. Bill Wielechowski (who represents Anchorage's District G) says he's "considering" the race. (David Jarman)
• IL-Gov: After saying back in January that he'd officially launch his campaign for governor some time after Barack Obama's second inauguration, state Treasurer Dan Rutherford will finally make a formal announcement on Saturday. That's certainly "after." Rutherford will be the first Republican to enter the race, though others, such as self-funding hedge fund manager Bruce Rauner and state Sens. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard, could also join the field.
House:
• CA-31: Well, we finally have some resolution to the mysterious case of the unwilling Baca endorsers. As I suspected, Reps. Jim Clyburn and Terri Sewell now both say they were unaware that other Democrats were running in CA-31 when they signed ex-Rep. Joe Baca's endorsement sheet.
I guess that's understandable to a degree (though come on, how about doing some due diligence first?), but—and I hate to defend Baca over anything—Clyburn and Sewell should not have told reporters that they had not endorsed Baca when they most certainly had. They should have admitted their mistakes straight out. Sewell's case is even worse, because she said that she was instead supporting the DCCC's choice, Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar. But now she's had to retract that, too, probably because, as Aaron Blake points out, EMILY's List, which endorsed Sewell over another female candidate in her first campaign, is backing attorney Eloise Reyes.
• CA-52: Former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, who narrowly lost last year's mayoral election, has formally launched his campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Scott Peters. DeMaio's entry seemed like it was in the works for a while: Back in March, he said he wasn't ruling out a run, and earlier this month, the NRCC released a poll showing him with a 10-point lead over the incumbent. Those numbers were a bit hard to believe, but it's worth noting that Peters didn't offer a response.
DeMaio will definitely be a tough opponent no matter what, though. In the portion of CA-52 that's within San Diego's city limits (which accounts for 90 percent of the district), DeMaio beat then-Rep. Bob Filner 56-43 in the mayor's race. He's also managed to portray himself as a "moderate," often mentioning the fact that he's gay and saying that he's pro-choice. The media seems eager to reinforce that image, almost relieved to discover a Republican who isn't batshit insane. Peters will have to work hard to puncture DeMaio's preferred self-portrait.
And here's another thought: Is DeMaio a little too poll-driven? In his official announcement, DeMaio said that "I see myself as a 'new generation Republican,' " which is amusing because that's exactly the phrase the NRCC used in describing him to voters in their recent poll. Usually campaigns are a little more careful about allowing glimpses behind the curtain like that.
• GA-12: It's sort of interesting to see which Republicans do not want to take on Rep. John Barrow, despite the juicy target his decidedly red district offers. Along with 2012 candidate Wright McLeod, state Senate President pro tem Tommie Williams has now said no, despite the NRCC's attempts to recruit him into the race.
On the other hand, Rick Allen, the runner-up in last year's GOP runoff, has filed paperwork with the FEC—but an unnamed advisor wouldn't say whether he actually plans to run again. Barrow's opponent from the previous cycle, state Rep. Lee Anderson, is also apparently considering another bid, but given his weak showing, I'm sure Republicans would prefer an upgrade. Considering that Allen lost the nomination to Anderson, he probably doesn't qualify.
• MI-08: It looks like GOP Rep. Mike Rogers is staying put, for the moment. Rogers, a former FBI agent, had been talked about as a possible candidate to head that agency when Robert Mueller departs later this year. But according to NPR, Barack Obama will nominate James Comey, a former deputy attorney general under George W. Bush. Rogers could still run for Senate, but he hasn't shown a great deal of interest in doing so.
• MN-06: As you'd expect, the list of Republican candidates who could succeed Michele Bachmann is very, very long. We've rounded up every name cited by several different news organizations; everyone on here has either expressed some degree of interest or received Great Mentioner treatment (and hasn't actually said no):
2012 Senate candidate Pete Hegseth
Anoka County Board Chair Rhonda Sivarajah
Former MN GOP chair Pat Shortridge
Former state House Majority Leader Matt Dean
Former state Rep. Jim Knoblach
Former state Rep. Phil Krinkie
Former state Rep. Tom Emmer (and 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee)
Former state Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch
St. Cloud Mayor Dave Kleis
State Rep. Linda Runbeck
State Rep. Matt Dean
State Rep. Peggy Scott
State Rep. Tim Sanders
State Sen. Branden Petersen
State Sen. Mary Kiffmeyer
State Sen. Michelle Benson
Former Rep. Mark Kennedy, who held this seat before Bachmann did (he gave it up in 2006 to pursue a failed run for Senate), isn't ruling it out, but
he says "don't hold your breath" for a possible comeback. State House Minority Leader Kurt Daudt, state Sen. Michelle Fischbach, and state Rep. David FitzSimmons have all declined. (Sources:
Strib 1,
Strib 2,
The Hill,
Roll Call,
WaPo,
MinnPost)
Other Races:
• PA-LG: Want to know how Democrats are feeling about their chances against Gov. Tom Corbett in 2014? The lieutenant governor's race, usually an afterthought, is turning into one of the hottest shows in town. (LG candidates run separately in the primary, but the winners are then joined shotgun-wedding style with their party's gubernatorial nominee on a single ticket.) PoliticsPA lists the various Dems who are already in the race or floating their names (most recently, state Sen. John Wozniak, who represents a rapidly reddening Johnstown-area district), but perhaps the most significant name is buried at the end of their list: ex-Rep. Mark Critz, who lost thanks to redistricting in 2012. (David Jarman)