I always figured Congressman Ed Markey (D. MA) had a lead over businessman Gabriel Gomez (R. MA) but both these recent polls might be too good to be true:
http://www.masslive.com/...
A poll released Friday by New England College finds Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Edward Markey with a 20-point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez.
It is the second poll in two days to find Markey up by such a huge margin. While previous polls had given Markey leads ranging from seven to 11 points, a Boston Herald/UMass Lowell poll released Thursday also put Markey up by 20.
The recent polls indicate that Markey is in a very strong position heading into Tuesday’s special election.
The New England College poll found Markey leading Gomez, 56 percent to 36 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Those were identical to the numbers in the Boston Herald poll.
The poll found that Markey has increased his lead in the last month due to growing support among female voters as well as a strong ground game.
The telephone poll of 579 likely voters was conducted June 18-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minutes 4.07 percent. Full poll results can be found on the New England College website. - The Republican, 6/21/13
I can understand being skeptical about Markey having this big of a lead so for the skeptics, lets turn to Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy of Huffington Post's main points:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
1. "The wide variance in the margins is not surprising given the challenge of accurately measuring the likely electorate in an off-year special election in which turnout is likely to be low. Low turnout elections are more prone to error, something poll watchers should always bear in mind."
2. "Voter turnout is likely to be lower than the January 2010 special election that sent Republican Scott Brown to the Senate."
Indeed, the Boston Globe reports today that "[r]equests for absentee ballots in next Tuesday’s special US Senate election have slipped 22 percent from the January 2010 special election," and that Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin is "'extremely concerned' about the level of voter participation." Galvin notes that there's a lot going on right now for Massachusetts voters:
“With many people focused on the Bruins playing in the Stanley Cup Final, the Bulger trial, and the end of the school year, the Special Election has a lot of competition for attention,” Galvin said in a press release. - Huffington Post, 6/21/13
So you can take the recent poll numbers with a grain of salt. Gomez and the GOP's polling claims that he's only 3 points behind:
http://www.politico.com/...
The survey—conducted Monday through Wednesday by conservative pollster John McLaughlin and shared first with POLITICO—has Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) leading 47 percent to 44 percent.
“The environment is such that an electable moderate Republican like Gabriel Gomez could still become the next U.S. Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts,” McLaughlin wrote in a four-page memo to Americans for Progressive Action, which launched a $700,000 ad buy for Gomez last week.
Gomez’s own internal poll, released Tuesday, showed him down 7 points. A Boston Globe poll published Sunday had him down 13 points. - Politico, 6/20/13
Ok, I also have a hard time believing Gomez or the GOP's polling on this one as well. Especially since the national Republican Party hasn't really embraced Gomez:
http://www.boston.com/...
Massachusetts Senate candidate Gabriel Gomez’s credentials would seem to fit the gold standard for the new breed of mass-appeal Republican that the GOP called for in an exhaustive postelection autopsy.
Yet the Washington-based national party and its most powerful allies have been reluctant to rally behind the fresh-faced Republican with the all-star resume, raising questions about the GOP’s commitment to candidates who might help improve its standing among women and minorities.
‘‘I told them from the beginning I'm going to win this with or without D.C.,’’ Gomez said this week. In a tough race in Democrat-friendly Massachusetts, he acknowledged that Democrat Ed Markey and Democratic allies have dramatically outspent him in the special election to replace former Sen. John Kerry, whom President Barack Obama chose as his secretary of state.
The election comes Tuesday, just three months after Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus released a high-profile internal report that found many voters disillusioned with the modern Republican Party. Working to recover from Obama’s re-election, the report’s authors determined that future GOP success would depend upon Republicans who generate stronger support from women, Hispanics and younger voters.
In particular, the study called on Republicans to embrace ‘‘comprehensive immigration reform,’’ recruit minority candidates, and become more ‘‘inclusive and welcoming’’ when dealing with contentious social issues. - AP, 6/21/13
Plus Gomez knows he's not Scott Brown (R. MA), he's Mitt Romney (R. MA) and he's been trying to hide that:
http://www.businessweek.com/...
Gomez is also a Republican private equity executive from Massachusetts, which may be the worst credential one could have after Democrats spent $1 billion portraying Mitt Romney as a rapacious corporate raider who preyed on the middle class. Sure enough, within days of Gomez winning the Republican nomination, the liberal Senate Majority PAC dubbed him “Mitt Romney, Jr.”
One curious facet of the current election cycle is that a host of Republican private equity executives have elected to run for office, despite Romney’s drubbing. Along with Gomez, who worked for Boston-based Advent International, former GTCR Chairman Bruce Rauner is running for governor of Illinois, and former Gores Group senior executive Scott Honour for governor of Minnesota. None has escaped comparison to his party’s losing presidential nominee. Liberal groups have anointed Honour “Minnesota’s Mitt Romney.”
What each of these candidates shares is a conviction that he can do a better job than Romney of turning his private sector experience into an asset. Gomez eschews Romney’s claim to be a “job creator,” presenting himself instead as someone whose main business was increasing his clients’ wealth. “The reality of the private equity industry is that our investors are public-sector pension funds and retirement systems,” he said on June 12, as he was heading to address a roundtable of business leaders in Waltham. “Where I worked, there are hundreds of thousands of public-sector employees—police officers, firefighters, teachers right here in Massachusetts—that we’re trying to benefit and grow their retirement funds,” he said. - Bloomberg, 6/20/13
Yet despite looking bad in the final debate, Gomez was still able to raise some more campaign cash:
http://www.masslive.com/...
Massachusetts Republican Senate candidate Gabriel Gomez has raised more than $300,000 since Tuesday evening’s debate, his campaign said.
Gomez is facing Democratic U.S. Rep. Edward Markey in Tuesday’s special election.
Gomez campaign spokesman Lenny Alcivar said the campaign has made a new $300,000 ad buy, which it had not previously budgeted for, using only money raised since the debate.
The ad is one the Gomez campaign released Thursday highlighting Gomez’s critique of Markey during the debate for Markey's long tenure in Congress.
Alcivar said in addition to the ad buy, the campaign is using some money raised post-debate for get out the vote efforts and online advertising.
Gomez overall has raised far less money than Markey. Filings with the Federal Election Commission show that Gomez’s campaign raised $2.3 million, as of June 5. He also loaned himself $900,000. Markey, in contrast, raised $7.8 million. Two weeks before the end of the campaign, Markey reported having $2.2 million in the bank – while Gomez had less than $1 million. - The Republican, 6/21/13
And who knows what good this will do for Gomez this late in the game:
http://thehill.com/...
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) is backing Republican Gabriel Gomez in the Massachusetts Senate race.
"Gabriel Gomez is running for Senate in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. He’s a first generation American, a Naval Academy graduate and former Navy SEAL, and a father of four. Gabriel will be an independent voice in Washington focused on long-term problem solving — not his next election," Huntsman wrote in an email from his political action committee, Red Rock PAC, on Friday.
Huntsman goes on to reference a barrage of negative attack ads supporters of Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.), the Democratic candidate in the Senate race, have aired against Gomez.
"His opponent is part of the problem: he's been in Congress for 37 years and votes with his party leadership 99 percent of the time," Huntsman continues in the email. "Given he has nothing positive to run on, he and his party have been using money and attack ads in an attempt to drown out Gabriel’s message of common sense reforms." - The Hill, 6/21/13
You know you're desperate when you need Jon Hunstman's help. But Markey has been hitting Gomez hard on the issues, like gun control:
http://www.masslive.com/...
Massachusetts Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Edward Markey will focus on gun control in a new video his campaign plans to release Friday.
Markey, a U.S. congressman, has emphasized his stance on gun control – including his support for bans on assault weapons and high capacity magazines – throughout the campaign.
His opponent, Republican Gabriel Gomez, a former Navy SEAL, wants Congress to pass expanded background checks, but believes bans are ineffective.
The Markey video features a series of Massachusetts voters asking Gomez to answer a question that Markey posed at the candidates’ debate Tuesday night: “Where would a civilian need a weapon where they could shoot a gun with 100 bullets in it in under two minutes?” - The Republican, 6/20/13
Plus Markey keeps racking up the endorsements:
http://www.metrowestdailynews.com/...
Ed Markey’s life is an open book, with list of achievements that would fill a long chapter – but that don’t fit easily on a bumper sticker. A few examples will have to suffice:
- Markey’s 1996 Telecommunications Act deregulated the industry, boosting competition and innovation, and opened up the public broadcast spectrum, helping spur the development of broadband Internet, cell phones, smartphones and the revolution in communications we’ve witnessed in the last decade.
- It was Markey who held BP’s feet to the fire after the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon led to the nation’s largest oil spill. He demanded BP’s video feed from the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico be made public, just one example of his ability to use his committee chairmanship to get answers and results.
- With the recent NSA disclosures, privacy is suddenly a hot issue, but it’s not new to Markey. As founder of the House Privacy Caucus, he’s pushed for years to protect us from corporate as well as government snoops. His initiatives have protected the privacy of financial transactions, personal health information, phone communications and GPS location data. He was the House author of the 1998 Children’s Online Privacy Act.
- Markey co-wrote, and convinced the House to approve, the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade climate change bill. Though if failed in the Senate, the legislation is the most ambitious effort yet to do something about the world’s most pressing environmental threat.
Markey’s most important work is directly tied toward strengthening the Massachusetts economy. He has been a consistent champion for federal support for the health, energy and environmental research that nurtures small startups that grow to be major employers. Companies in MetroWest and across the state have benefited from his work in telecommunications, health care and alternative energy. - The MetroWest Daily News, 6/21/13
The Armenian National Committee of America has also endorsed Markey:
http://asbarez.com/...
“For over 30 years, Congressman Markey has been a steadfast supporter on a broad range of Armenian American concerns – from justice for the Armenian Genocide to self-determination for Nagorno Karabakh and U.S. assistance for a stronger Armenia and Artsakh,” said ANCA National Board member Stephen Mesrobian of Foxborough, MA. “We stand with Congressman Markey as he seeks to continue his service to the Commonwealth in the U.S. Senate, encourage Armenian Americans to vote for him on June 25th, and look forward to working with him following Tuesday’s special election victory.”
Since first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, Rep. Markey has been a strong and consistent advocate on Armenian issues, receiving multiple “A+” ratings from the ANCA in its Congressional Report Card, issued every two years.
He has been outspoken in support of U.S. reaffirmation of the Armenian Genocide, cosponsoring all related legislation introduced in the U.S. House, including the Armenian Genocide Truth and Justice Resolution (H.Res.227), introduced in May of this year. In his annual Armenian Genocide commemorative statement submitted for the Congressional Record this year, Rep. Markey explained, “Almost one-hundred years have passed since the Armenian Genocide, yet the suffering will continue for Armenians and non-Armenians alike as long as the world allows denial to prevail.”
In May of 2006, in the aftermath of the State Department recall of U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Evans over his proper commemoration of the Armenian Genocide, Rep. Markey shared his concerns with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and rallied 60 of his U.S. House colleagues to request State Department clarification of the White House action. “We must not allow the perception to linger that he [Ambassador Evans] is being required to vacate his position early for accurately labeling the cataclysmic events of 1915 as genocide,” Rep. Markey and legislators wrote in the May 22, 2006, letter to Secretary Rice, adding that Ambassador Evans “did nothing more than succinctly repeat the conclusions enunciated by those before him.”
As Ranking Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, Rep. Markey was a vocal opponent of H.R.2362 – The Indian Tribal Trade and Investment Demonstration Project Act of 2011 – which would have unfairly limited foreign trade preferences on Indian tribal lands to only one country, Turkey. In remarks made during July 23, 2012, House consideration of the measure, Rep. Markey explained, “By acknowledging Turkey’s ‘unique interest’ in developing tribal economies and in building ‘robust’ relationships between it and tribal communities, this legislation rewards a country with a terrible history of human rights and religious freedom violations, threats to U.S. commercial interests in Cyprus, and –most importantly–its refusal to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide which resulted in the deaths of 1.5 million people.” The measure was defeated in a floor vote.
Since the independence of the Republic of Armenia, Rep. Markey has been a consistent supporter of robust U.S. assistance to Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, annually joining colleagues in urging the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations to maintain high-levels of funding, given the dual blockades of Turkey and Azerbaijan. In 2008, he joined over 50 of his Congressional colleagues in calling on then-Secretary Rice to challenge Azerbaijan’s threats of renewed war against Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh, and to take concrete action to hold leaders in Baku accountable for actions that directly undermine the Administration’s policy of fostering peace and stability in the South Caucasus region. - Asbarez, 6/21/13
The Markey campaign is now heavily focused on voter turnout:
http://www.wbur.org/...
At a dining room of a senior citizen center in Quincy, Markey went from table to table, shaking hands and listening politely.
At one table, Geri Melanson told the Democrat she’s rooting for him. Melanson is 72 years old, six years Markey’s senior.
“Oh, I think [Markey] is great,” she said. “And I certainly am gonna vote for him. You know the other guy, nobody really knows him … and I don’t think anybody really wants to know him. Because he’s our guy, Markey, you know?
Meeting with voters such as Melanson might seem like good retail politics. But there’s a strategic reason Markey stopped at this senior citizens center.
“Take a look around,” state Rep. Ron Mariano said. “There’s about 850 to 900 seniors in this building.” Mariano, of Quincy, owes his seat to this very senior citizen housing complex. It’s so big it is its own voting precinct.
“Folks vote downstairs from where they live. Heat, humidity should not be a factor,” Mariano said. “If you can walk out with 900, or even if you get half of them or three-quarters of them, a 600 to 700 vote cushion, it’s like money in the bank.”
This is the part of an election campaign where the message hands the keys over to the machinery. It’s about getting out the vote you’ve got.
At Markey’s field office in Dorchester on Friday, campaign worker Radu Florescu signed up a volunteer to go door to door on Election Day. Last year, this space was also a campaign office for Elizabeth Warren. She was successful in her bid for U.S. Senate thanks to a strong get-out-the-vote effort.
She returned to the Dorchester office Friday to try to energize some of the same campaign volunteers who last year canvassed neighborhoods and manned phone banks for her. - 90.9 WBUR, 6/21/13
And Vice President Joe Biden's appearance tomorrow should be helpful with voter turnout:
http://www.heraldnews.com/...
Vice President Joe Biden will visit the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth for Saturday’s rally for Democratic candidate U.S. Rep. Edward Markey before Tuesday’s special U.S. Senate election.
The event will be held in the Claire T. Carney Library, and the doors will open at 12:30 p.m.
“I’m proud to have the support of Vice President Biden and President Obama in this election, and if elected, I will go to the Senate and fight to move forward their agenda to create good-paying jobs, strengthen the middle class and build an economy that works for everyone,” Markey said.
In addition to Vice President Biden, Mayors Will Flanagan of Fall River and Jon Mitchell of New Bedford, U.S. Rep. Bill Keating and Markey will also be speaking.
“I’m honored to be able to be on stage with the vice president and show my support for Congressman Ed Markey for Senate,” Flanagan said.
This event is free and open to the public, but tickets are required. In Fall River, tickets can be obtained between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. Friday at 25 N. Main St. by contacting Joe Beebe at 978-844-4185 or by email at beebe.joseph@gmail.com. - The Herald News, 6/21/13
The Special Election is Tuesday, June 25th. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter (D. NH-01) is helping out with volunteer and GOTV efforts:
There is a special United States Senate election in Massachusetts on June 25th to fill the seat held by Secretary of State John Kerry. My good friend and colleague, Ed Markey, is running for the right reason--for the rest of us!
While the race is taking place in Massachusetts, the results will be felt across the entire nation.
Can you volunteer by knocking doors or making calls?
https://docs.google.com/...
Massachusetts has a history of electing strong Democratic leaders, but in 2010 Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's seat. Kennedy's progressive work over the span of decades in the Senate was stalled. In 2012, thanks to an aggressive grassroots effort, Massachusetts proudly, elected Elizabeth Warren to the Senate. We have to ensure that she has a partner in the Senate and we need your help to make that happen.
Sign up here to volunteer
https://docs.google.com/...
Thank you!
Carol
You can click here to sign up and volunteer:
https://docs.google.com/...