It looks like the "border surge"
gambit for immigration reform has worked—at least in the Senate. At 5:30 PM ET today, the Senate will vote on the surge plan, a vote that is
expected to set up a final vote on the legislation by the end of the week.
The sudden surge in Republican support has been a pleasant surprise for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who urged the bill’s authors to focus on winning 60 votes — the minimum for passing it.
Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), the leaders of the Gang of Eight, are marching toward 70 votes, a target intended to put maximum pressure on the House to act.
The House is the X factor. The lower chamber is expected to pass narrow immigration bills that do not include a path to citizenship, which is a staple of the Senate legislation. Conservatives in the House, including Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), strongly oppose the Senate bill.
Assuming the Senate passes the immigration reform bill as expected, the House will face a binary choice: They'll be able to kill comprehensive immigration reform or send it to the president's desk.
House conservatives will make noise about wanting to do things in a step-by-step process, but that's nothing more than an obvious effort to punt on the issue. The reality is that their options are simple: They can support legislation to create a path to citizenship and legal status for undocumented Americans who are already in the country while simultaneously increasing border security, or they can opt for the status quo. They can help fix things, or sit on their hands. And with the Senate on the cusp of doing its part, the decision will be on them soon.