Rush Holt could have momentum to primary Sen. Cory Booker in 2014 if Holt finishes a "better than expected" 2nd in the upcoming 2013 special election primary, in which Booker appears to be cruising on celebrity and money (although Holt might be correct in predicting that celebrity will have less weight than usual in this mid-vacation single-office election).
Or this momentum scenario might benefit Frank Pallone, as the higher vote-getter among Holt & Pallone should benefit from increased name recognition, or possibly another Progressive candidate.
Even if then-incumbent Booker fends off a more-progressive 2014 primary challenger, the challenge would at least pressure Booker to avoid appearing overly friendly to the private equity industry, charter school industry, etc.
Although incumbents normally gain strength while in office, the trend could be different for Booker, who already has much money and name recognition, and whose current campaign for NJ-Sen appears to benefit from him not yet having an attackable voting record on national issues, other than 'voting with his mouth' on how nauseating it was for Obama to attack Romney's private equity record -- at a moment when Obama's re-election appeared to be in the balance.
It's true that Bill Clinton also criticized Obama's attack, but Bill redeemed himself with energetic and effective campaigning for Obama. In contrast, what has Cory done to show Progressives and Liberals that he will be part of any solutions in the Senate, rather than part of the problem?
Booker will be under pressure to show this on all his early votes in the US Senate, because of not starting off with the normal six-year term that permits early-term snubs of primary voters to be obscured by late-term pandering.
This scenario is second best for Progressives. Best (for Progressives and I believe for Booker's development as a political figure) would have been for Booker to challenge Chris Christie for NJ-Gov. But Booker ducked Christie, and then Christie ducked Booker when scheduling the special election for NJ-Sen. Hopefully this mutual ducking will be a wake-up call to voters who have been putting too much weight on positive impressions of these two political personalities, and not enough weight on policy positions.
9:58 PM PT: Thanks to all commenters, who make a number of serious points.
Indeed sad that Holt & Pallone will split vote of voters who don't like Booker's friendliness to private equity and charter school industry, etc.
But that is water under the bridge, since neither Holt nor Pallone seems likely to drop out in the course of this short special election campaign.
This leave Holt sympathizers with the question of whether supporting Holt or opposing Booker is a waste of resources. I think that the answer to this is not quite as obviously "yes" as it initially appears, because of the circumstances summarized in the diary.
10:21 PM PT: Several commenters assert or assume that Booker’s initial 1-year partial term will give him the customary big incumbency advantage against primary challengers, I think Booker will find that, in the partial term and any subsequent full terms, in comparison to the Mayor of Newark, it will be harder in today's US Senate to straddle cozying up to private equity etc. while periodically winning Democratic primaries in New Jersey.
The straddle would be somewhat easier as NJ-Gov (where he could probably please most Democratic constituencies just by reversing a few of Christie's more egregious policies). Moreover, lengthy Senate voting records are part of the reason that Governors often have an easier path running for President.
Thus, it would not surprise me if Booker sought to leave the Senate by running for the Governorship 4 or 8 years from now.
Either way, if Holt demonstrates statewide strength in this special election, this should improve Holt's prospects for a future run for either NJ-Sen or NJ-Gov.