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Leading Off:
• TX-Gov: It certainly looks like Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis is about to declare a bid for governor. Davis, who scored national headlines earlier this year with her filibuster of a GOP bill that would restrict reproductive rights, just emailed supporters to say that on Oct. 3, she'll be "answering that question" of "What's next?" The rest of her message included a request for people to share news about her pending announcement and sign up for her campaign, which you don't do if you aren't planning to run.
Davis would likely face well-funded state Attorney General Greg Abbott, who has the inside track to the GOP nomination following Gov. Rick Perry's decision not to seek another term. It's a high-risk, high-reward proposition for Davis. One the one hand, the demographic trends that are turning Texas bluer are still a long way off from turning it blue. On the other, her star is as bright as it's ever likely to be right now, so running this cycle allows her to capitalize on her supporters' high enthusiasm. It'll be a very tough fight—a July PPP poll showed Abbott leading 48-40—but Davis knows that, and she isn't shying away.
Senate:
• KY-Sen: A group called the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition, the non-profit sibling of the super PAC Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, will reportedly run $325,000 worth of ads touting Sen. Mitch McConnell's opposition to the Affordable Care Act. It's a real sore spot for McConnell, though, since he's refused to pursue radical plans to defund Obamacare and faces a serious primary challenge from the right from businessman Matt Bevin. The ad does not appear to be online as yet.
• LA-Sen: Wowza. Crossing party lines is de rigueur in Louisiana politics, so I'm not especially surprised to learn that GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy donated to Democrats like Sen. Mary Landrieu and ex-Gov. Kathleen Blanco a decade or more ago, especially since he hadn't entered politics at the time. But the website NOLA Defender dug up something even juicier along with these old contributions: In 2010, Cassidy, though his leadership PAC, gave $1,000 to California Democrat Ami Bera.
I'm pretty blown away by that. That cycle, Republicans were poised to recapture the House, and yet Cassidy donated a grand to one of the few Democrats running a competitive race against a Republican incumbent. Indeed, Bera defeated Dan Lungren in a rematch two years later. So why would Cassidy sabotage his own party like that? And how could he look Lungren in the eye afterwards? The only connection I can see is that Bera, like Cassidy, is a physician, but since when do professional considerations trump partisan loyalty in Congress?
Cassidy has looked like a lock to represent the GOP in their effort to take down Landrieu next year, and his chief conservative rival, Air Force vet Rob Maness, hasn't gained much traction. But this isn't the only instance where Cassidy has undermined his own Republican bona fides. Recently, the New Orleans Times-Picayune unearthed healthcare legislation that Cassidy authored while serving in the state Senate that resembled key provisions of the Affordable Care Act. If Maness can't make hay of all this, then Cassidy has to consider himself very lucky.
• MA-Sen: After his loss in the Senate special election earlier this year to Ed Markey, Republican Gabriel Gomez didn't rule out a rematch, or a possible House bid either. Now Politico reports that Gomez is down in D.C., talking with members of his party about his options. However, a nameless Gomez advisor says no one should put "too much stock in Senate run talk."
• MI-Sen: Relying on unnamed sources, the National Journal's Tim Alberta reported that libertarian Rep. Justin Amash would not join the GOP primary for Senate—and then got apparent confirmation from the horse's mouth, because Amash re-tweeted the story and added: "Love #MI03 & excited abt work I'm doing in House." Amash never seemed very likely to make a bid, but I don't understand why he couldn't just communicate his intentions directly. If he wants to tick off his supporters by being cutesy, though, who am I to stop him?
• MT-Sen: With nearly all of the big-name Democrats in Montana declining to run for Senate, attention has turned to Lt. Gov. John Walsh, who was narrowly elected on a ticket with Steve Bullock last year after ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer was term-limited out. Walsh, an Iraq veteran, has an appealing profile, and now a report says that he very recently visited D.C. to meet with "party leaders." If he decides to get in, Walsh could turn what had looked like a recruiting debacle for Democrats into a success, and he'd give Team Blue a legitimate chance to hold this open seat.
• NC-Sen: A bit out of nowhere, state Sen. Pete Brunstetter says he's thinking about joining the GOP primary for Senate, and interestingly, he says that state Senate President Phil Berger, who has also been weighing a bid, is encouraging him to go for it. Berger wouldn't confirm Brunstetter's claim, but a spokesman says he'd "be very supportive" of Brunstetter if Berger didn't run. Meanwhile, Brunstetter says he won't run if Berger does.
But if the two do in fact have some sort of agreement, it undermines the notion that state House Speak Thom Tillis is consolidating establishment support behind his own Senate run. Tillis recently announced a fundraiser with North Carolina's senior senator, Richard Burr, and Karl Rove is touting him at another. But if a powerful figure like Berger is still looking for an alternative, whether its himself or someone else, that's not a positive sign for Tillis.
• NH-Sen: Former state Sen. Jim Rubens announced on Wednesday that he would run for Senate, at long last giving Republicans a candidate to take on Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. A brand new PPP poll showed Rubens trailing Shaheen 50-33, but he has other, more immediate problems. Democrats unearthed a 2009 blog post in which Rubens seemed to connect what he called an "increasingly female-centric economy" with rising violent crime and mass shootings—a post that Rubens then took down.
But oddly, Rubens is not a movement conservative. Indeed, BuzzFeed says he "favors a carbon tax, is pro-choice, and supports same-sex marriage," which suggests that if he faces any competition from the right for the GOP nomination, he'll have a lot of trouble winning. Then again, it looks like he'll have a lot of trouble winning a general election, too.
Gubernatorial:
• AZ-Gov: State Rep. Chad Campbell, who had been mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate for quite some time, has decided not to run for governor next year. That means former state Board of Regents chair Fred DuVal is still the only Democrat in the race, and at this point, he appears to have a clear path to the nomination. In a statement announcing his plans, though, Campbell did not offer an endorsement to DuVal, so perhaps he thinks someone else might still get in.
Meanwhile, the GOP primary for this open seat is looking extremely crowded. The Arizona Republic helpfully summarizes the field:
Secretary of State Ken Bennett, State Treasurer Doug Ducey, former Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman, former Go Daddy Executive Vice President Christine Jones, Sen. Al Melvin, former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas and Guadalupe resident John Molina have all filed paperwork to either run or explore a run.
Gov. Jan Brewer
had threatened to exploit a possible loophole in Arizona law that might have allowed her to run for a third term, despite the constitution limiting governors to two terms. Brewer, you'll recall, ascended to the governorship in 2009 after Barack Obama tapped then-Gov. Janet Napolitano to run the Department of Homeland Security. She later claimed that the because she'd only been
elected once (in 2010), term limits hadn't kicked in for her yet, but she never challenge the law in court, and time's probably run out for her to do so.
• CO-Gov: Republican Secretary of State Scott Gessler, who formed a campaign committee back in May, finally made his bid for governor official on Tuesday. Despite the long delay, though, Gessler's timing was quite poor, as a significant swath of the state has been devastated by massive flooding. As you'd expect, Gov. John Hickenlooper has been busy attending to the disaster, like Chris Christie after Sandy, and that makes it awkward if not downright inappropriate for Gessler to launch any attacks on the incumbent.
And as much as Gessler wants to go after Hickenlooper, he first faces a contested GOP primary against more outspokenly conservative opponents, including ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo. (State Sen. Greg Brophy is also running.) So even if Gessler emerges as the Republican nominee, it's hard to imagine him doing so without having to march to the right, and that's only likely to cause him problems in the general election.
• IL-Gov: Despite former White House chief of staff Bill Daley's surprising decision to drop out of the Democratic primary, Attorney General Lisa Madigan and state Sen. Kwame Raoul—who had previously contemplated but declined bids of their own—both say they won't reconsider. And the general gist of Chicago Tribune reporter Rick Pearson's story indicates that both Democrats and Republicans alike now expect Gov. Pat Quinn to have a clear shot at renomination. It's quite a remarkable turnabout for a guy who consistently trailed in the polls and who appeared unlikely to serve as the Democrats' standard-bearer a second time.
• NJ-Gov: Gov. Chris Christie's second ad goes negative on Democrat Barbara Buono, which is interesting in and of itself since Christie has never led by fewer than 20 points since Hurricane Sandy. The spot attacks Buono as a tax hiker who also voted to "raise her own pay," but as the Asbury Park Press points out, the increase was to all of $49,000 a year, and the plan was sponsored by Republicans and signed into law by a GOP governor, Christie Whitman.
• VA-Gov: Quinnipiac's new poll of this fall's Virginia gubernatorial race finds Democrat Terry McAuliffe's lead tightening, but that's because they made an important change to the question they've been asking. McAuliffe now holds a 44-41 edge over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, while Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who previously had not been included, takes 7 percent. In August, sans Sarvis, T-Mac was up 48-42.
But Cuccinelli can't feel too optimistic about this shift. At the same time, his favorables have spiked, from 35-41 in August to 34-51 now. McAuliffe's have remained largely flat, moving from 34-33 to 38-38. That confirms my general feeling that McAuliffe's attacks on Cuccinelli have had more bite to them than the assaults the Democrat has faced. And with McAuliffe's considerable money advantage, Cuccinelli won't easily be able to reverse this phenomenon.
But he is getting some outside help to make up the difference. The Ending Spending Action Fund, a conservative super PAC run by TDAmeritrade founder Joe Ricketts, is reportedly spending $200,000 on a multi-media campaign beating up on McAuliffe. Their first ad tries to portray McAuliffe as an outsider, claiming he wanted to run for governor of New York or Florida instead. Kind of ironic, for a group financed mainly by Nebraska money.
House:
• CA-21: Nathan Gonzales reports that Democrats may have finally found a credible candidate in California's 21st District, a seat where the party whiffed badly last cycle and handed it to Republican David Valadao without much of a fight. This time, though, former congressional staffer Amanda Renteria may run, and she appears to have decent connections: She first worked as an aide to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, then later rose to become chief of staff to Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. And as a Latina woman, Renteria potentially offers a compelling profile, though she has not run for office before.
But even though the 21st gave 55 percent of its vote to Barack Obama last year, it'll be a difficult race even for a well-qualified challenger. That's because this portion of the Hispanic-heavy Central Valley is notorious for seeing a drop-off in Democratic performance in off-year elections. Indeed, a special election earlier this year for a state Senate district that overlaps considerably with CA-21 and, if anything, is even bluer, went for the Republican by a 52-48 margin. But if Renteria gets in, she at least gives Democrats a chance at knocking off Valadao.
• NH-01, -Sen: While UNH business school dean Dan Innis had been mentioned as a possible GOP Senate candidate, John DiStaso reports that he'll step down from his current post on Nov. 1, and says that Innis "expected" to announce a run for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District. That would set him on an apparent collision course in the Republican primary with ex-Rep. Frank Guinta, who is reportedly also on the verge of launching a comeback bid. Innis would have at least one powerful ally in his camp, though: wealthy GOP donor Peter Paul, whose name graces the school that Innis is now leaving, thanks to a $25 million donation. Paul says he'd support Innis, even though he maxed out to Guinta last cycle.
Other Races:
• Boston Mayor: For the second time this week we have a poll of Tuesday's Boston mayoral primary. This time it comes from Suffolk University, and it largely confirms the earlier University of New Hampshire survey. City Councilor John Connolly leads his eleven foes with 16 percent support. It's a tight race for the second place slot with District Attorney Dan Conley and state Rep. Martin Walsh tied with 12 percent each. Former state Rep. and YouthBuild USA executive Charlotte Golar Richie comes close with 10 percent, followed by City Councilor Rob Consalvo at 8 percent.
Suffolk also gives us a look at hypothetical general election trial heats and finds Connolly leading each of his most likely opponents. Connolly defeats Conley 36 to 29 in a head-to-head match-up. Connolly does even better facing prospective foes whose names aren't confusingly similar to his own: He beats Golar Richie 43 to 32, Walsh 44 to 29, and Consalvo 47 to 25. There's a long way to go in this race, but right now it looks good to be John Connolly. (Darth Jeff)
• NYC Mayor: Marist has the honor of providing the first public poll of the New York City mayor's race following last week's primary, and man is it a wipeout. Despite (or perhaps because of) 20 years of GOP rule, Democrat Bill de Blasio demolishes Republican Joe Lhota by a 65-22 margin.
Voters also have very positive views of de Blasio, with an impressive 65 percent expressing a favorable view of him versus just 19 percent who harbor a negative impression. Lhota, by contrast, has a terrible favorability rating of 29 positive and 41 negative, perhaps due to the onslaught of negative ads that John Catsimatidis, his GOP primary rival, spent millions to air. While de Blasio probably won't win by 40 points, numbers like these make it hard for Lhota to look credible.
• Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso's recap of Tuesday night's elections:
California AD-45: We're going to a Nov. 19 runoff between Democrat Matt Dababaneh, who received 25 percent of the vote, and Republican Susan Shelley, who got 21 percent. Democrat Jeff Ebenstein came in third with 14 percent, and Republican Chris Kolski was fourth with 13 percent. No other candidate broke double digits. The Democratic candidates received a combined 61 percent of the vote, while the Republicans got 37 percent, and the lone independent pulled in the remaining 2 percent.
New Hampshire House, Hillsborough-14: Democrats held on to this seat; Mary Heath defeated Republican Ross Terrio by a 350-311 vote margin.
Grab Bag:
• Polltopia: In an interesting op-ed in The Hill, pollster Mark Mellman takes polling firms to task for failing to distinguish between likely voters and what he calls the "likely electorate," which he considers to be far more important. He specifically criticizes polls from Siena and Marist that showed Eliot Spitzer with big leads in the Democratic primary for New York City comptroller.
By contrast, Mellman says his firm had Scott Stringer, their client, "ahead the entire time" because they assumed that a quarter of registered Democrats would turn out. The actual figure was 23 percent, but Siena's likely voter model led them to conclude that turnout would be 67 percent, while Marist believed it would be 59 percent. Marist eventually came back down to earth, but for a while there, it looked like Spitzer might swamp Stringer. Instead, he lost by 4 points.
Mellman doesn't go into any detail about how he constructed his "likely electorate," but Mark Blumenthal suggested on Twitter that it involves "lists and vote history," to which Mellman replied "yep" and intimated that he wasn't about to share what someone else called his "secret sauce." Still, these kinds of figures are worth considering when analyzing polls: If an electorate simply looks too big (or too small) compared to past contests, that's a potential red flag.