...but I'm getting a bad feeling that default might actually be part of the Republican long game here. I'm actually starting to think that some key Republicans are in absolutely no rush to resolve this crisis, even if it means defaulting and keeping the government shut down for months. I think the Repubs are completely delusional, but they may be looking at the shutdown and default as the way to finally break the Democratic party and the social safety net once and for all.
Imagine this perverse line of thinking and decide whether you could sell it to your (least) favorite Tea Party Congressman:
1. The Debt Ceiling is reached and the President and the Democrats blame the Republicans, who certainly see massive short-term hits to their polling.
2. The administration has to decide who not to pay. They either pay bondholders to keep economic Armageddon at bay, in which case "the Democrats have been overselling the crisis and are putting the interests of Wall Street and the Chinese ahead of Social Security recipients and our military!!!", or they allow the federal government to go into default, which means that "the Democrats can't be trusted to manage the economy!!!"
More chilling Repub fantasies after the croissant...
3. The government shut down continues while more and more people are impacted, and the economy continues to slide. While this happens, there are no ways to enforce environmental regulations, economic regulations, etc., which benefits key Republican donors. If some disaster were to occur, the Repubs would blame that on Obama as well, because "he put Obamacare ahead of the well being of the rest of America."
4. The economy is in full blown recession by January, which increases the pressure on Obama to negotiate something. Finally, Republicans declare victory and express sadness that it took so much pain for Obama to finally be reasonable. The public at this point expresses its disgust at both sides, depressing Democratic votes enough to allow the Repubs to keep the house in the midterm elections.
5. The economy remains in the tank through 2016, and the Repubs run on the idea that Democratic overreach in trying to enact socialized medicine resulted in the collapse of the US economy, and only through Austerity can we solve the crisis that the Democrats created.
6. Repubs take back the Senate and eliminate the Filibuster. President Ryan repeals ACA and replaces it with malpractice reforms, cuts business taxes, and privatizes Social Security, and institutes restrictive national voting standards, ensuring Republican electoral dominance for the next ten years.
Like I said, this to me is completely irrational and insane, but that's what's making me paranoid. This is a party that once famously declared that "they make their own reality". I could see enough Repub leaders being desperate enough about their current prospects and wanting to believe the kind of scenario outlined above that they blow everything up as a "Hail Mary" play to use the collapse as one last chance to gain enough control to ensure their long term prospects.
I'd love for someone to point out why the Republican leaders would never do something so harmful for something so unrealistic, because, like I said, I'm getting a bad feeling about this...