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9:14 AM PT (Steve Singiser): NJ-LD-02 : Oy. Maybe shooting your opponent is something that a candidate shouldn't joke about. Yet that is what Frank Balles, the sheriff of Atlantic County and the GOP nominee for state senator, did earlier in the month. A video of the event, obtained by TPM, shows Balles agreeing with a guest at a pro-gun gathering where Balles was speaking.
"When someone's been elected for 30 years and he comes knocking on your door and tells you, 'Listen, this is what I want to do to help you,' quickly close your door, go inside," Balles said.
A member of the audience quickly interjected, "And get your gun!"
Balles quickly responded, "And get your gun, exactly!"
Balles is the GOP's standard bearer in one of the few state Senate districts thought to be competitive next month. The southern-tier 2nd district has two Republican state assembly members, and Democratic incumbent Jim Whelan was held to a modest six-point victory in 2011, though
a recent poll had him leading Balles by 12 points. For their part, the state Democratic Party is calling for Balles to resign as sheriff in the wake of the event.
9:20 AM PT: VA-Gov, -LG: Marist's new poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race finds Terry McAuliffe legging out to an 8-point lead, taking 46 percent to just 38 for Republican Ken Cuccinelli and 9 for Libertarian Robert Sarvis. Last month, McAuliffe's advantage was a tighter 43-38, and if you want to blame the shutdown, you have ample reason to do so: Among the 38 percent of voters who say the shutdown will have a "major impact" on how they cast their ballots, McAuliffe is up 55-27. (Another 21 percent say it will have a "minor impact," and McAuliffe is up 52-33 with them.)
Marist also has results for the lieutenant governor's race, where Democratic state Sen. Ralph Northam is beating minister E.W. Jackson 48-42. Northam, like McAuliffe, has also improved since September, when he was ahead just 44-41. For an even deeper dive into all these numbers, check out Steve Singiser's post at Daily Kos Elections.
9:32 AM PT: And speaking of Jackson, the Washington Post offers a lengthy new piece that questions stories he's frequently told on the stump about the stark deprivation he allegedly faced as a child in a foster home, including claims that he sometimes went without dinner and lived in a home that lacked an indoor bathroom. But one of his foster parents' daughters, as well as a neighbor who babysat them, say they recall nothing of the sort and describe a comfortable upbringing. The rest of the article also delves into another big area where Jackson has had issues with veracity: campaign finance. The whole thing is worth a read.
9:52 AM PT: KY-Sen: One day after endorsing a purist challenger to a GOP incumbent in Mississippi, the Senate Conservatives Fund is doing the same in Kentucky. The group, founded by ex-Sen. Jim DeMint, has given their backing to businessman Matt Bevin in his race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Last cycle, the SCF spent about $3.5 million on an array of candidates including Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, and Ted Cruz, making them one of the chief anti-establishment meddlers in the Republican universe.
10:13 AM PT (Steve Singiser): NJ-LD-02: A little earlier in the day, you heard the lovely tale of Frank Balles, the GOP state senate candidate who appeared before a pro-gun confab and "joked" about voters getting a gun if his opponent, Democratic state Sen. Jim Whelan, came to the door.
He's now denying he did any such thing. Talk about loopholes: his contention is that the audience made the comment about "get your gun", and he cannot control an audience.
Except that the video, obtained by TPM, clearly shows Balles smiling and pointing at the audience member in question, and echoing the phrase "and get your gun", as the crowd laughs and applauds. So, for those scoring at home, is this the 12,493rd time a Republican has issued a denial that is easily contradicted by videotape, or the 12,494th?
10:50 AM PT (David Jarman): Votes: Daily Kos Elections is out with a detailed wrap-up of Wednesday night's votes in the Senate and House to end the shutdown. Wondering who the "no" votes in the bluest districts are? Wondering how strongly the "no" votes correlate with the tea party right? Wondering what the demographics of the "no" voters' districts are? It's all in there.
10:56 AM PT: Special Elections: As the biggest state in the nation, and one with legislative term limits to boot, California conducts tons of special elections. If you're interested in delving into the past, the Secretary of State's office has put together a chart of every special since 1989, including recalls. A bit of recent trivia: Did you know that GOP Rep. Jeff Denham was the subject of a failed recall in 2008, when he served in the state Senate?
11:01 AM PT: SD-AL: Retired Army Major and Iraq vet Corinna Robinson says she plans to run against GOP Rep. Kristi Noem next year and will make a formal announcement "in the next few weeks." South Dakota presents very tough turf for any Democrat, though: Last year, Dems recruited former congressional staffer Matt Varilek, who ran a cut-above campaign but still lost to Noem 57-43.
11:03 AM PT (David Jarman): Passages: Condolences to the family and friends of Tom Foley, who died at the age of 84. Foley was the Democratic Speaker of the House from 1989 to 1994, probably the last years where the dominant tone in the House was one of collegiality. He served the Spokane-area WA-05 for 30 years, from 1964 to 1994 (when he was the first sitting Speaker to get defeated for re-election in more than a century); following that, he served as Ambassador to Japan.
12:42 PM PT: FL-18: Funny timing: In the previous Digest, we were talking about how sucky the Republican field that's lined up to take on freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy is, based in large part on lousy GOP fundraising. Now, we have further confirmation, in the form of a new Murphy internal from FrederickPolls. Murphy sports a very healthy 57-30 job approval rating—far better than almost all of the potentially vulnerable Republican House members we've recently seen numbers for.
What's more, he also beats ex-state Rep. Carl Domino and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner by wide 52-25 margins. Murphy has to be very pleased that he's over the 50 percent mark, especially given that Mitt Romney won this seat 52-48. And the fact that the more prominent Hasner, who isn't actually running, performs no better than Domino is also a positive sign for the incumbent. Unusually for an internal, we also have the partisan breakdown, which at 43 percent Republican, 37 percent Democrat, and 20 percent independent is several points redder than the 38R-36D-21I split just ahead of last year's election.
And speaking of 2012, FredrickPolls nailed Murphy's race against then-Rep. Allen West, finding the contest deadlocked at 47 apiece just weeks before Election Day. Murphy, of course, won in a squeaker, with less than 1 percent separating him and West when all the votes were finally tallied. Yes, this latest survey was taken in the midst of the government shutdown, but if it's anywhere near as accurate as Murphy's internals were last cycle, he's in very good shape for re-election.
1:03 PM PT: IL-13: One disappointing fundraising result this quarter came in Illinois' 13th Congressional District, where attorney and former Miss America Erika Harold is challenging Rep. Rodney Davis in the GOP primary. Harold, who looked like she could emerge as a tea partying bomb-thrower, has instead been very quiet and raised a tepid $73,000. (Davis took in $302,000.) Now a new poll from conservative pollster We Ask America offers even worse news for the challenger, since Davis leads 63-16, up from 54-17 in June.
1:21 PM PT: AL-01: Ex-Rep. Jo Bonner, whose resignation earlier this year triggered the special election to replace him, has endorsed ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne to succeed him in Congress. Byrne faces tea partying businessman Dean Young in a Nov. 5 GOP runoff in this heavily Republican district.
1:42 PM PT: Bonner is also hosting a fundraiser for Byrne on Tuesday.
1:48 PM PT: RI-Gov: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, the most prominent Republican considering a gubernatorial bid in Rhode Island, says he has a "major announcement" planned for Nov. 4 but won't say what it's about. You know how much I hate these kinds of pre-announcements, but if Fung wants to compete with national news stories the very next day about how Terry McAuliffe is about to kick Ken Cuccinelli's ass, fine with me.
2:01 PM PT: NJ-Gov: With just a few weeks left in the race, Democrat Barbara Buono is out with her first ad of the general election. She declares that she's the "only one actually running for governor" because Chris Christie's "got his sights set on the Republican presidential primary." It's a pretty decent zinger, but Buono then tries to cram in every possible negative hit on Christie in the final two thirds of the spot. (I count at least six.) But it probably doesn't matter, seeing as yet another poll (from Rutgers, which had a heavy Dem lean in the Senate special) shows the race utterly out of reach for Buono.
2:24 PM PT: Meanwhile, 2010 GOP nominee John Robitaille says he has "no plans" to run again, in the words of the AP.
2:26 PM PT: For what it's worth, Cuccinelli has a new 15-second ad accusing McAuliffe of being "deeply unserious" and supporting higher taxes. Meh.
2:46 PM PT: DCCC, DSCC: Both of the major Democratic campaign committees released their September fundraising hauls several days early, and both, as you might imagine, did quite well. The DCCC raised a massive $8.4 million, which they say is their best-ever September haul in a non-election year. (The NRCC hasn't released its figures yet.) The DSCC, meanwhile, took in $4.6 million, well ahead of the NRSC's $3.4 million. And note that the books closed on these reports right before the shutdown; I'm guessing that October is gonna be even more crazy-nuts.
2:49 PM PT: AK-Sen: Another good quarter for freshman Dem Sen. Mark Begich, who raised $813,000 from July through September, taking his cash-on-hand total to $2.4 million. One of his main Republican rivals, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, reported taking in just $196,000, leaving him with $155,000 in the bank.
3:07 PM PT (Darth Jeff): Boston Mayor: A new poll gives City Councilor John Connolly his narrowest lead yet over rival state Rep. Marty Walsh. The Sage Systems survey, commissioned by The Environmental League of Massachusetts Action Fund (which is currently neutral in the race), shows Connolly up 40 to 36 among likely voters. Other recent public polling showed Connolly with a 7 to 8 point, but as the November 5 election approaches other firms should soon weigh in and give us an idea of whether or not Walsh is indeed closing the gap.
4:48 PM PT: FL-13: Confirmed, this time:
RIP.