Like many adult men who cling to their adolescent, slacker habits too often, I am a huge fan of the movie The Big Lebowski. In one scene, at the bowling alley of course, Walter (John Goodman) explains to The Dude the difference between ‘Nam and the first Gulf War.
I mean 'Nam was a foot soldier's war whereas, uh, this thing should uh, you know, be a piece of cake. I mean I had an M16, Jacko, not an Abrams fucking tank.
Me and Charlie, eyeball to eyeball.
That's fuckin' combat. The man in the black pajamas, Dude. Worthy fuckin' adversary.
Which brings me to Mitch McConnell, a worthy adversary.
Yes, Mitch McConnell could be in the fight for his political life in 2014, most likely twice in 2014. But he is not to be underestimated. In the shellacking that the GOP took over the shutdown, and debt ceiling debate, one Republican leader remained somewhat unseen and in the shadows, Mitch McConnell.
Did Mitch McConnell try to rein in wacko Ted Cruz?
Did Mitch McConnell jump in front of every camera he could every Sunday morning?
No. McConnell let the kids in the House fight a battle he knew couldn’t end well for the GOP. And the end, it is Cruz, Boehner and a bevy of Tea Party wackos that are licking their wounds, while Mitch McConnell is sitting on a cool $3 billion for his home state of Kentucky.
Part of the deal that the Senate Minority Leader brokered included an authorization to spend additional money on a dam project on the Ohio River. I cannot tell you all the details, nor do I have the desire to split hairs about whether or not it is an “earmark.” But the project is reported to be grossly over budget and far behind schedule. But…
One man’s “boondoggle” is another man’s “job program.”
Mitch McConnell knows one golden rule: that while all politics might not be local…all elections are.
It is already being argued that McConnell, by putting his own “pork,” into the deal will further alienate him from ardent Tea Party voters that could hurt him in his primary with political upstart, and Tea Party candidate, Matt Bevin. Without a doubt this deal will infuriate Tea Party supporters…in Texas, in Alabama, in Pennsylvania, and elsewhere. But in Kentucky, where last time I looked, the primary election will be held, what do you think? What do your political instincts tell you?
Do you think that maybe, just maybe Mitch McConnell will say something in a debate such as: “When the Democrats came to me begging for deal, I thought about jobs in Kentucky, and a project that will save American taxpayers $640 million a year. I made sure Washington gridlock wasn’t going to stop that project, and I protected Kentucky jobs.‘
He can then look back at his challenger and say, “Please proceed Mr. Bevin.”
Mitch McConnell has seen reliable conservatives “primaried” by Tea Party upstarts of which the incumbent never really took seriously, until it was too late. Mitch McConnell will not make that mistake.
A master politician, Mitch McConnell knows it is a lot easier to prevent a challenger from gaining momentum, than stopping that momentum once its started. But how much will McConnell lose in his general election race with Alison Grimes, while fighting against Matt Bevin. Probably much less than we think, due to what can be summed up in two words: Rand Paul.
There is absolutely, positively, no way that Rand Paul will throw his support behind Matt Bevin. None. Zero. He may not go all-in for Mitch McConnell, but he will endorse him, and will campaign for him. Maybe just as little as he must, but he will.
Enter Allison Grimes. If Mitch McConnell loses to Allison Grimes, it will be the fault of Mitch McConnell, and only Mitch McConnell. Because in the end, even master politicians make mistakes, and Mitch made a huge one in this race.
Mitch McConnell, the master politician, would have destroyed Ashley Judd. It wouldn’t have been a contest. Given how easily Judd bolted from the idea of running proved that, and Mitch should have known that. But he destroyed Ashley Judd way too early. And gave Allison Grimes the best political gift anyone could have asked for.
Now, instead of running against an attractive woman with no political experience that says on video that Tennessee is her true home, and used to reading all her lines from a script, now he’s running against an attractive woman, who has won a statewide election in Kentucky, and has been in political debates, and has raised money in politics, and…IS A WOMAN!
If Mitch would have just shut up and let the Ashley Judd train roll on, there may have been a primary, Grimes mat have declined to run. Either way Mitch wins. But now Mitch has a real problem, two actually.
Can he really keep Matt Bevin at bay? Given that Rand Paul won the GOP nomination with less than 20% of registered GOP voters in Kentucky, Mitch can’t take for granted that 1 in 5 Republicans in Kentucky won’t go batshit Tea Party crazy on his ass. And remember, Mitch campaigned against Rand Paul.
And while Mitch keeps Bevin from gaining momentum, Grimes has free run. She has no primary opposition, and none is expected. Money won’t be an issue, both will have far more than needed. The Tea Party, anti-Obama crowd doesn’t seem to motivated to vote, let alone work for Mitch. And it might not take many women to tip the scales in favor of Grimes.
But as good things look now, we can’t even begin to feel confident. Forget the polls, forget everything except one thing. And that one thing should unite us all behind the woman that can actually beat Mitch McConnell. That one thing should make you send a couple bucks to her campaign, that one thing should motivate all Kentucky voters, especially the women to vote their interests, and work on her behalf.
And that one thing cannot be forgotten…
Mitch McConnell is a worthy fuckin’ adversary.