Data source: NBC/WSJ late October 2013 survey
Wall Street Journal reporter Neil King takes a look at the latest
WSJ/NBC survey data and concludes that
Republicans have a problem:
Put simply, Democrats are largely content with their own party, while distaste among Republicans for the GOP has grown exponentially this year.
The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, offers a stark window into widening divisions within the GOP over strategy and what kind of leaders Republicans want going forward. The Democratic Party, by comparison, is a picture of unity.
Specifically:
In December, just a month after the GOP experienced a string of election losses, nearly two-thirds of all Republicans held a positive view of their party. Ten months later that share has dropped to less than half.
Among those who are more wavering in their ties to the GOP—a group that is nearly twice the size of the party’s most fervent followers—affection for the party in the latest poll dropped to 35%, with almost an equal number saying they viewed the party in a negative light.
As you can see in the chart at the top of this post, there's a significant split between tea party Republicans, 56 percent of whom see the GOP positively, and non-tea party Republicans, 41 percent of whom see it positively. Both of those numbers are awful, especially when you consider that 73 percent of Democrats view their party positively, but the GOP's problem isn't just that the numbers are bad—it's that the numbers are bad in large part because the party is at war with itself.
Keeping in mind the standard disclaimers about how the election is a year away and that a year is a long time, these kinds of numbers really aren't the way you'd want to enter a mid-term election, which will be driven in large party by base turnout. It's bad to have an unenthusiastic base, but to have a base that is actively turned off is a real problem. Republicans have a huge built-in advantage with the way district lines have been drawn, but if nearly 30 percent of their base still actively dislikes the GOP in by the time fall 2014 rolls around, the House Republican majority will be in real trouble.