State Board of Elections website this evening changed from Obenshain by 55 to Obenshain by 17. People have been digging through to account for the 38 vote change. We knew that 11 was from Richmond City provisionals, H 15 O 4 = +11H
The rest came from Precinct 606, which had corrections of Herring +30 and Obenshain +3 for a net of +27.
55 - 11- 27 = 17. (SORRY for previous typo)
Still NOT in state is Richmond Precinct 501, which should net Herring 116, meaning that his margin before Fairfax provisionals would be +99.
UPDATE 4:44 AM From Dave Wasserman's (@Redistrict) Twitter Feed:
Also, there has been one statewide race in the US with a vote over a million and a margin <100, as someone answered in response to one of Dave's tweets:
We know there are at least 136 provisionals that will be counted in Fairfax, out of the almost 500. From a Facebook post by an important Democratic party person in Fairfax:
The Fairfax County Electoral Board released the following statement this evening regarding the status of their provisional ballot meeting:
"Tonight, the Fairfax County Electoral Board voted in open session to accept a total of 136 provisional ballots from the 493 provisional ballots cast in Fairfax County on election day....
Presuming a 20 point margin, that would add about 25 votes to Herring's margin. Worst case 10% margin would still add 13.
From the analysis of what else might be out in provisionals, it is looking more like Herring will finish with a margin>100 but <200, unless there are more changes from other counties or from other precincts in Richmond not yet reported.
And since I get up at 4 and leave at 5 to drive an hour to my school, that is all I will offer in this update.
Peace.
UPDATE 11/11 at 12:11 PM according to this spreadsheet, there are less than 140 provisional ballots outside of Fairfax County to be considered. Thus absent other changes, and unless both the approval rates and the distribution between candidates is something radically unexpected, Fairfax should ultimately be sufficient to swing the race for Herring. Of course, if in fact there is a real Shockoe Slip-up and the 116 margin presumed to have resulted is credited to Herring, provisionals will be playing somewhat around the margins.