There were high hopes among gun-control advocates after the slaughter at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, last December that the United States would finally get serious about reducing firearm violence by requiring every would-be buyer of a gun to undergo a criminal and mental health background check and restricting the type of weapon individuals can own as well as the ammunition capacity of those weapons. New organizations were founded, older ones reinvigorated.
The effort failed spectacularly at the federal level. At least in part, that's because of Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein's doomed-to-failure-from-the-start effort to reinstitute a 1994-2004 ban on certain semi-automatic rifles with big ammunition magazines like the one Adam Lanza used in Newtown that are capable of firing scores of bullets in a few seconds.
Not only did Feinstein's proposal go down in flames, with large numbers of Democrats opposed, the assault weapon ban's introduction as the first new gun proposal after Newtown may well have hurt the chances for enacting a background check law covering private gun sales. A universal background check has overwhelming support among citizens in general, among gun owners and even among members of the National Rifle Association. But the debate over the background-check proposal was tainted with the assault weapons ban by the NRA, the more extreme Gun Owners of America and many NRA favorites in Congress. Ultimately, that proposal also went into oblivion.
There has been more success for advocates of tighter controls at the state level in the past 12 months. As The New York Times pointed out Thursday, 109 new gun laws have been enacted in the wake of Newtown. However, 70 of them have loosened restrictions. Twenty-five of the tighter restrictions were imposed in states with Democrat-controlled legislatures, only nine in states where Republicans are in charge, with five under mixed control. Only three of the looser restrictions were passed in states where Democrats are in the legislative majority. You can read the details at the Times's website.
Two examples: Kentucky got rid of a six-month residency requirement to obtain a permit to carry a concealed firearm; North Dakota mandated background checks for anyone applying for a concealed-carry permit.
Some rank-and-file Democrats, at Daily Kos and elsewhere, argued that the party would be harmed by passing tighter restrictions (or even trying to do so) and that it should continue the hands-off approach that President Barack Obama had taken on any new gun measures until the Sandy Hook slayings occurred. Events in Colorado, they said, vindicated their point of view.
There, after the state passed laws requiring universal background checks for private gun sales, limiting ammunition magazines to 15 rounds each and mandating that only in-person rather than ludicrously inadequate on-line training be required for concealed-carry permits, the uproar against such measures was translated into political action. That effort recalled two Democratic state senators, replacing them with two Republicans and reducing the hard-won Democratic margin in the senate to a single member. Subsequently, another recall by foes of the new laws was launched against Democratic Sen. Evie Hudak in the most competitive seat in the state. But Hudak resigned, allowing the appointment of another Democrat, Rachel Zenzinger, to fill the seat throughout 2014.
It's been argued the recalls do not reflect a change of heart among voters in Colorado and were only successful because the special elections turning the two Democrats out of office had low turnouts. That interpretation may provide solace to Democratic activists. But a significant fraction of Democrats voted to recall the senator in one of the two districts. While gun control may not be much of a factor in next year's general election, in a state heavy with independents where Democrats have struggled to gain and keep majorities in the legislature, a couple of percentage points in close districts can be decisive. And the latest Public Policy Polling poll of Colorado gives Republicans the legislative edge in 2014.
For states with close margins, the Colorado experience ought to be instructive for Democrats. At the very least the focus ought to be on gun laws that have strong support. Everywhere, blue states, red states and purple states, the one proposal that remains popular prescribes universal background checks. In most states, that's where any Democratic gun-law focus ought to be for now no matter how sensible other new restrictions may seem to be.
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KVoimakas has a discussion of this subject in this post.