So newly elected Attorney General Mark Herring's (D. VA) campaign manager explains why Herring defeated Ken Cuccinelli (R. VA) protege Mark Obenshain (R. VA):
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
The man who helped guide Democrat Mark Herring to a win in Virginia's attorney general race wrote Sunday that support for gun control proved to be a winning position for the candidate.
Kevin O'Holleran, who managed Herring's campaign, wrote in the Washington Post that gun control gave the Democrat an opportunity to draw a favorable contrast with his Republican opponent, state Sen. Mark Obenshain. Herring, O'Holleran wrote, was on the right side of the debate.
"Obenshain’s position against gun-safety legislation was standard GOP fare — but it reflected a state and a voter mind-set that no longer exist," O'Holleran wrote. - TPM, 12/2/13
Here's more from O'Holleran's Washington Post op-ed:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Obenshain’s position against gun-safety legislation was standard GOP fare — but it reflected a state and a voter mind-set that no longer exist. Almost all Virginians support sensible gun-safety legislation. Over the years, the commonwealth has become more urban and suburban, not only in Northern Virginia but also in Norfolk and Richmond. We found broad support in the Washington suburbs, Richmond and Norfolk for comprehensive background checks and ending the gun-show loophole.
Campaigns must make difficult financial choices, and in the general election, we knew we were going to be outspent by as much as three to one. We also knew that two issues would be powerful to voters: gun violence and Obenshain’s extremist views on women’s health issues. We couldn’t afford to focus on both simultaneously, so we started our television campaign on Obenshain’s record on women. Our intent was to start with these issues, broaden the offensive and eventually close by focusing on Obenshain’s record of inaction, or worse, on gun violence.
Ultimately, we never stopped talking about Obenshain’s abysmal record on women’s health. Independence USA, the super political action committee started by New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, and Americans for Responsible Solutions, the organization founded by former representative Gabrielle “Gabby” Giffords and her husband, Mark Kelly, joined the race in the closing weeks, running commercials that discussed gun violence issues.
The National Rifle Association ran commercials against Herring, but its messages were directed at voters who our own polling showed were never accessible to Herring. The NRA avoided the largest concentrations of swing voters in the Northern Virginia, Norfolk and Richmond markets. That is not a recipe for growth or success.
The swing vote began to shift dramatically in our favor at the end. When the ballots were counted in Northern Virginia, Herring not only beat Obenshain there by more than 100,000 votes, but he also increased the total Democratic vote in Northern Virginia for attorney general by more than 124,000 since the last election. A post-election survey of voters in Northern Virginia by the Global Strategy Group indicated that 57 percent of those who voted for Herring in Northern Virginia believe gun issues had a major impact on the way they voted.
This massive increase wasn’t just about the mechanics of campaigning. The painful and numbing record of senseless gun violence — from Columbine High School in Colorado to Virginia Tech to Newtown, Conn., and, during the heart of the fall campaign, the Navy Yard shooting — was the real determinant of voters’ sentiments. Our campaign pointed out the contrast, and voters lined up on our side. Even the NRA’s active opposition in its home state could not change the fact that voters rejected our opponent’s radical position on gun safety. Those perpetuating the conventional wisdom should take notice: In the end, voters were calling out for action on gun violence, and they flocked to the candidate who offered progress and a sensible, mainstream approach to protecting Virginians. - Washington Post, 12/1/13
Local press noted during the election Herring decision to get more aggressive about gun safety in the campaign because he had to in order to win:
http://www.roanoke.com/...
Herring knows that he faces an uphill battle.
The last Democrat elected attorney general was Mary Sue Terry, who won a second term in 1989. Republicans have won the past five elections for attorney general, even in 2001 and 2005, when Democrats won the governorship.
And while Herring calls out his opponent for what he terms social extremism, the Democrat’s own record in the legislature is to the left of that of his running mate, Sen. Ralph Northam of Norfolk, the Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor.
For example, Herring has supported such issues as gun control and women’s rights. Most recently, Herring touted his support for overturning Virginia’s ban on same-sex marriage. In 2006, 57 percent of Virginians voted to amend the state constitution, defining marriage as between a man and a woman.
Herring voted for that amendment — but later changed his views.
“Over time, I’ve come to view it very differently. I talked to a lot of people, I thought a lot about it, talked to my family and I have seen how I would not want the state to tell my son or my daughter who they can and cannot marry,” Herring said.
“Virginia keeps making a name for itself on late night comedy shows, and every time that happens, whether it’s attacking women’s rights, or whether it’s being hostile to gays and lesbians and minorities, it sends a message that Virginia is an unwelcoming place,” he said. - Roanoke Times, 9/22/13
And The Daily Beast can back up Herring's campaign manager's claims:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/...
Obenshain had run a better campaign the Cuccinelli for months. Though Obenshain shared Cuccinelli’s extreme cultural conservative agenda on guns and women’s issues, he instead put his biography and family in the spotlight as he tried to appeal to voters. Obenshain ran a series of ads where his daughter introduced him in an appealing, compelling light.
The image he’d cultivated and the stronger poll numbers inspired a wave of late contributions to Obenshain’s campaign. One group alone, the D.C.-based Republican State Leadership Conference, poured in more than $1 million between October 17 and election day. The funds allowed Obenshain to spend almost $700,000 on broadcast TV ads in the final nine days—far more ads than Cuccinelli could afford.
But, in those final nine days, one huge obstacle was in Obenshain’s path: his out-of-the-mainstream record on guns.
Although he tried to separate himself from Cuccinelli and extreme positions that were obviously faring poorly with Virginia voters, Obenshain had a similar record: he voted 12 times against expanding background checks for gun sales. And, in the final days of the election, Mayor Bloomberg’s Independence USA Super PAC nearly doubled the Obenshain campaign’s broadcast spending with a $1,292,415 ad campaign focusing on northern Virginia. These ads focused on Obenshain’s opposition to universal gun background checks and his other extreme positions on issues like abortion. Mark Herring, Obenshain’s Democratic opponent, in contrast campaigned on expanding background checks and protecting women’s health choices. The Bloomberg ads charged that Obenshain was just another member of the Cuccinelli’s “Tea Party Ticket.” - The Daily Beast, 11/6/13
It's very encouraging to hear Herring's campaign manager say that gun control was a winning a issue. Yes, the race was very tight but it was expected to be tighter than the Governor's race. Some Democrats may feel discouraged about running on gun control in next year's election due to the Colorado recall. Hopefully Herring's success story might change their minds.