As is well known, the congressional districts of Ohio have been subject to a ridiculous Republican gerrymander that has resulted in Democrats winning only 25 percent of the districts while winning about half of the popular vote. While a court-drawn map is more likely in 2020, I decided to see what a Democratic gerrymander of Ohio, that was still relatively clean, would look like.
The map I have drawn not only creates a solid majority of Democratic districts, but also (not so coincidentally) really messes up the Republican incumbents. Many of them are put together, and several open seats are created. All four Democratic incumbents have safe seats, and a few former Democratic Representatives could make comebacks. This map alone could bring Democrats almost 50 percent of the way to retaking the House.
Follow me below the fold for the maps and descriptions.
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Here is a map of the entire state:
Here is a map of Southwestern Ohio and Columbus:
District 1 (blue): John Boehner (R-West Chester Township)
Demographics: 93/3/2/2 (white/black/Hispanic/Asian, all VAP)
Prez ’08: 68-31 McCain
Average: 67-33 Republican
This district is an extremely effective Republican vote sink that surrounds Cincinnati on three sides. It includes the most Republican areas of Hamilton and Butler Counties, all of Clermont, and most of Warren. Boehner lives here, and while this would be a logical district for either Chabot or Wenstrup to run in as well, they wouldn’t dare challenge the Speaker of the House. SAFE R.
District 2 (green): Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati), Brad Wenstrup (R-Cincinnati)
Demographics: 66/27/3/2
Prez ’08: 59-40 Obama
Average: 56-44 Democratic
This district contains Cincinnati and its most Democratic suburbs, and then takes in Fairfield and Hamilton to get up to the correct population. Both Chabot and Wenstrup live here, however running here would be suicide for either of them. Outgoing Cincinnati mayor Mark Mallory would be a good candidate for the Democrats here. If Democrats had an incumbent here, this district would be safe. LIKELY D.
District 3 (purple): Mike Turner (R-Dayton), Jim Jordan (R-Urbana)
Demographics: 77/18/2/2
Prez ’08: 55-44 Obama
Average: 54-46 Democratic
This district is based in Dayton and stretches from Oxford, next to the Indiana border, to London. It also includes Middletown, Springfield, Urbana, and Xenia. Turner will be a hard opponent to dislodge, due to his strength in Dayton, however this district is six points more Democratic than the current version, and did not swing much overall from 2008 to 2012. We’d need a strong candidate to win here, but I’d say this district is a TOSSUP.
District 4 (red): Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington)
Demographics: 78/11/4/5
Prez ’08: 57-41 Obama
Average: 56-44 Democratic
This district contains the north and west sides of Columbus, as well as some of the less conservative suburbs. The Columbus area is trending Democratic, so I don’t think Stivers would have much of a chance here, especially considering that Obama probably did better here in 2012 than in 2008. Former Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy could defeat him (for the second time) here. LIKELY D.
District 5 (yellow): Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus)
Demographics: 72/22/2/1
Prez ’08: 58-41 Obama
Average: 61-39 Democratic
I particularly like the idea of this district. It takes the heavily-African-American east side of Columbus, and some moderate suburbs, and then goes south to take in the light-pink counties of Ross, Pike, and Scioto. These counties all swung significantly more Democratic in 2012, so Obama probably got 60 percent here last year. And if the people in those rural counties are willing to vote for a Chicago liberal, I don’t see why they wouldn’t vote for a Columbus liberal. Beatty would be quite safe here. SAFE D.
District 6 (teal): Open
Demographics: 95/2/1/1
Prez ’08: 64-35 McCain
Average: 62-38 Republican
This is another Republican vote sink that basically surrounds the 3rd district. Jim Jordan could run here, since he represents some of this area already. Brad Wenstrup could carpetbag out here, since he currently represents Brown and Adams Counties. Either way, whichever Republican is nominated here will win the general election. SAFE R.
District 7 (gray): Bill Johnson (R-Marietta)
Demographics: 90/6/2/1
Prez ’08: 54-44 Obama
Average: 67-33 Democratic
This district is located in southeastern and eastern Ohio, most of which is solidly Democratic downballot, but becoming more Republican in federal races. This looks similar to Johnson’s current district, however it loses some conservative-leaning rural areas in its southern end and gains heavily-Democratic Youngstown. With the addition of Youngstown, and the re-addition of the heavily-Democratic college town of Athens, it’s hard to see how Johnson survives here. LIKELY D.
District 8 (slate blue): Open
Demographics: 93/4/1/1
Prez ’08: 50-48 Obama
Average: 55-45 Democratic
This is a genuine swing district in eastern Ohio that includes Canton, New Philadelphia, and Zanesville. A good candidate for the Democrats would be former Rep. Zack Space, who lives in Dover. No incumbents live here, and Bob Gibbs might carpetbag here, but this district definitely starts out as a TOSSUP.
Here is a map of northeastern Ohio:
District 9 (cyan): Tim Ryan (D-Niles)
Demographics: 90/6/2/2
Prez ’08: 56-42 Obama
Average: 62-38 Democratic
This is a clever district, including parts of rural Columbiana and Mahoning, all of Trumbull, Ashtabula, and Lake, and the whiter eastern suburbs of Cleveland. David Joyce doesn’t live here (he lives in Geauga County, but he certainly won’t want to run in that district), but even if Joyce ran here he would be destroyed by Ryan. SAFE D.
District 10 (pink): Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green)
Demographics: 82/11/5/1
Prez ’08: 58-41 Obama
Average: 59-41 Democratic
This is a classic NW Ohio district. It includes Toledo, Wood County, five other smaller counties, and small parts of two others. Latta would probably run in the 16th, since he would have no shot here. SAFE D.
District 11 (chartreuse): Open
Demographics: 87/6/5/1
Prez ’08: 55-44 Obama
Average: 59-41 Democratic
This district takes in the central part of Northern Ohio, including Oregon, Port Clinton, Fremont, Norwalk, Sandusky, and Lorain County. A Lorain County Democrat would be our best candidate for this seat. LIKELY D.
District 12 (cornflower blue): Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth)
Demographics: 85/11/1/2
Prez ’08: 56-42 Obama
Average: 61-39 Democratic
This is the Akron district. It includes all of Portage County, most of Summit, one township in Stark, and Wadsworth, so that Renacci lives here. Betty Sutton would get her revenge on Renacci in this district. LIKELY D if Renacci runs, SAFE D if he doesn’t.
District 13 (dark salmon): Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights), David Joyce (R-Russell Township)
Demographics: 53/43/1/2
Prez ’08: 70-29 Obama
Average: 71-29 Democratic
This district takes in the heavily-African-American areas of Cuyahoga County, and then includes the more conservative areas near Cleveland, such as Geauga, Medina, and parts of Wayne County. David Joyce could do a suicide run here, but he’d be more likely to run in the 9th (where he’d still be defeated, but it would be a little closer). SAFE D.
District 14 (olive): Open
Demographics: 86/5/6/2
Prez ’08: 57-42 Obama
Average: 62-38 Democratic
This is the west side of Cuyahoga County district. It also extends south to Brunswick and Medina. I really hope that someone other than Dennis Kucinich wins the Democratic primary here, because I really don’t want Kucinich to come back, but whichever Democrat wins the primary here will be strongly favored in the general. LIKELY D with Kucinich, SAFE D otherwise.
District 15 (orange): Bob Gibbs (R-Millersburg), Pat Tiberi (R-Galena)
Demographics: 94/2/1/2
Prez ’08: 60-39 McCain
Average: 59-41 Republican
This district is a Republican vote sink located north and east of Columbus. In a hypothetical primary between Gibbs and Tiberi, Tiberi would probably win, since he is from a town near Columbus, and most of the population of this district is in the Columbus area. However, regardless of who the Republican nominee is, the district is still SAFE R.
District 16 (lime green): Open
Demographics: 94/3/2/1
Prez ’08: 63-35 McCain
Average: 61-39 Republican
This is the last Republican vote sink, located in the west-central part of the state. No incumbents live here, but Bob Latta could run here, and Jim Jordan might also run here if he doesn’t want to run in the 6th. However, either way, this far-right district will elect a far-right Representative. SAFE R.
So, in total, there are:
4 SAFE R
2 TOSSUP
5 LIKELY D
5 SAFE D
Thus, Democrats are likely to gain at least six, maybe even eight seats from this map. And since they only need 17 more seats in the House to win a majority, this map would get them almost halfway there.
I hope you enjoyed reading, and I welcome any feedback or questions!