In a short time, FIFA will hold a draw in Bahia, Brazil to determine which groups the 32 nations that qualified for next summer's World Cup will be placed in. Once again, the manner in which the seedings have been handled by FIFA is controversial. In prior World Cups, FIFA has determined the eight seeded teams by their performance over the three prior mundials and also their current world ranking.
This year, FIFA is basing the seeding only on the world rankings through this past October. As a result, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Belgium, and Switzerland were seeded. Powerful teams like Italy, Portugal, and the Netherlands were not. The United States, seeded 13th in October, did not get seeded.
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FIFA has four pots with all the seeded countries in Pot 1. Pot 2 will contain just seven countries with an eighth team that will be removed from Pot 4 which has nine teams. What? You heard me. The US is in Pot 3.
Pot 2 has Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria from the CAF (Africa), and Ecuador and Chile from CONMEBOL (South America).
Pot 3 includes Australia, Japan, Iran, and South Korea from the AFC (Asia); and Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico and the U.S from CONCACAF (North America, the Caribbean, and Central America).
Pot 4 is Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, England, France, Greece Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Russia all from UEFA (Europe). One of those teams will be moved to Pot 2 so there isn't a group that has three European teams.
A number of sites, like ESPN FC have WC draw simulators and there is a genuine fear that the US will end up in the so-called Group of Death. This WC has only one new qualifier, Bosnia, so it is indeed possible that more than one Group of Death exists.
Four years ago, the US got lucky being grouped with England, Slovenia, and Algeria. They went on to win their group and qualify for the knock-out phase where they lost in overtime to Ghana.
Eight years ago, the US was in the Group of Death that included eventual winner Italy, the Czech Republic, and Ghana. Three of those teams, including the US, were all ranked in the top 10 by FIFA.
A favorable draw for the US would probably have them in a group with Switzerland, either Algeria or Cameroon, and either Bosnia, Croatia, Greece, or England as the second European team.
Likewise, an unfavorable draw might include Brazil, France, and the Netherlands or Spain, Italy, and Chile.
The only thing we know beforehand is that Brazil, as host, will be in Group A.
8:39 AM PT: A big shout out to members of the Seattle chapter of the American Outlaws, watching in a local bar at 8:30 am their time. Seattle hosted the US-Panama World Cup qualifier in June and the noise level was unlike anything I have ever heard in my 30 plus years as a fan of the US MNT.
I have a sneaky suspicion we will end up in a group with Brazil and either England or France.
8:48 AM PT: Nate Silver, formerly known as Poblano here on Daily Kos, was just interviewed by Bob Ley of ESPN.
Come on FIFA. Get on with it already. Seventeen minutes in and it's been all filler. I bet the draw won't start until noon.
8:59 AM PT: One of the European teams from Pot 4 will be moved to Pot 2 to start.
Spain is in Group B. Group C will feature Colombia. In Group D will be Uruguay. Switzerland drawn to Group E. Group F includes Argentina. Group G will have Germany. This means Belgium is in Group H.
9:06 AM PT: Italy is in Group D with Uruguay.
Chile is in Group B with Spain.
Cameroon is in Group A.
Ecuador is grouped with Switzerland.
Ivory Coast C3 grouped with Colombia.
Nigeria (F4) is grouped with Argentina.
Ghana G3 is with Germany.
Algeria is H2 with Belgium.
9:11 AM PT: Mexico is in Group A.
Australia is in Group B.
Japan in Group C.
Costa RIca in Group D.
Honduras in Group E.
Iran is in Group F.
US is in Group G with Germany. Opening match is against Ghana.
South Korea is in Group H.
9:17 AM PT: Croatia drawn with Brazil. It will be the opening match of the World Cup.
A rematch of the 2010 final as Netherlands is drawn with Spain.
Greece in Group C with Colombia.
England is in Group D, opening with Italy.
France in Group E.
Bosnia Group F opening with Argentina.
Portugal in Group G. We're in the damn Group of Death.
Russia, hosting in 2018, is in Group H.
9:28 AM PT: Winners: Belgium, Ivory Coast, Argentina, Brazil
Losers: US, Mexico, Netherlands.
No European team has ever won a WC in South America. The heat and humidity of Brazil should be an equalizer. This is going to be a very interesting World Cup.
On paper, the US group is loaded. Ghana has twice eliminated us by identical 2-1 scores in both 2006 and 2010. They are not afraid of playing us. We've never beaten them but playing them first is better than playing them last. Germany will have a very hard opening match with Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo. Germany will have a hard time dealing with the speed of all the other teams in the group. I have no idea how we will be able to deal with Cristiano Ronaldo, but we did beat them in 2002, 3-2. We beat Germany this year against basically the German B team 4-3 in a match we led 4-1 midway through the second half. The blue print for the US to reach the second round is beat Ghana and Germany and either draw or lose by one goal to Portugal.