Behold, a one-stop shop of complete PVI and voter registration numbers for the 58 counties and 177 legislative districts of the great state of California. Analysis is below the fold. But first, the numbers!
Partisan voting index (PVI)
This spreadsheet contains the full set of PVI data based on the last two presidential elections. The election results are raw percentages, and the PVI is based on the national Democratic two-party performance (aka Cook's definition). PVI numbers are color-coded to indicate party and partisan shift. Negative numbers indicate Republican inclinations, while positive numbers indicate Democratic leanings. PVIs between R+2 and D+2 are coded in yellow. There are different sheets for counties, congressional districts, state legislative districts, and the State Board of Equalization (SBOE) districts. 2008 numbers are taken from Meridian Pacific, a GOP consulting firm, while the 2012 numbers are taken from the California Secretary of State.
If you want the short and sweet version, here are the PVIs for the counties and legislative districts, without all that the extraneous stuff.
Voter registration numbers
This spreadsheet is similarly structured as the PVI spreadsheet, except this uses data from the three most recent dates: September 7, 2012; October 22, 2012; and February 10, 2013. The September numbers show the voter registration standings right before online voter registration was allowed on September 19. The October numbers show the voter registration of the November electorate (October 22 being the registration cutoff date). The February numbers are the most recent numbers and will be the last set published by the Secretary of State until next year.
Rather than using some complicated formula, I simply used subtraction (arithmetic! onoz!) to show the shift in the two-party voter registration share and the change in no-party-preference (NPP, California's name for independents, used to be called decline-to-state or DTS) registration, all on one side of the spreadsheet.
Important: For the even-numbered state senate districts, the names listed under the "Senator" column do not necessarily correspond to the actual senator currently in that seat. Since state senate elections are staggered, elections for odd-numbered seats were held in 2012 and these senators represent the new post-2011 redistricting districts. Elections for even-numbered seats were last held in 2010 in the old pre-redistricting configurations and senators in these seats continue to represent the old districts. The districts in the spreadsheets of this diary refer to the new districts, and the first elections for the new even-numbered seats will be held in 2014. Any names listed on these spreadsheets for the even-numbered seats therefore refer to the closest corresponding successor district.
Analysis
The numbers show how dire the situation is for California Republicans. Democrats winning a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of the state legislature was not a fluke; the bottom simply fell out from under the GOP. Election Day saw seat after red seat voting for President Obama. Voter registration numbers saw Team Blue increasing their numbers across the board.
The big story coming off the 2012 elections was how heavily Latino areas shifted overwhelmingly to the Democrats. To be sure, they did, with the sharpest upticks in Democratic performance (to the tune of eight points) was in assembly speaker John Pérez's Latino-majority AD-53. Central Valley and Southern California districts saw massive shifts towards the Democrats by several points or more. But let me point out one, perhaps even more important, thing: how heavily Asian areas shifted likewise or even more. Ed Chau's Asian-majority AD-49 shifted 6.5 points leftward, more than neighboring Roger Hernandez's Latino-majority AD-48, who shifted a comparatively measly five points. This is important: among ethnic groups, except for Cubans, the various Asian Pacific Islander groups are the ethnic minorities most receptive to Republican messaging and outreach. This utter repudiation in California and elsewhere in the country shows how 1) it can fall flat, and 2) how Democrats can work to turn API Americans into a base constituency.
What were considered swing districts during the campaign turned out to be relatively safe for the Dems. Mark Takano's CD-41 became a money sink for both parties, but Takano won by 18 points. The same happened for Jerry McNerney in CD-09, Alan Lowenthal in CD-47, Richard Roth in SD-31, Jose Medina in AD-61, and so on.
Many GOP districts skirted close to Democratic territory or already took the leap of faith to the other side. State senate minority leader Bob Huff's SD-29 is now a legitimate swing district, while Sharon Quirk-Silva's AD-65 (which shares a lot of territory with SD-29) simply jumped ship. Likewise, Buck McKeon's CD-25 got too close to the tipping point for comfort while Steve Fox's AD-36 got a bit too giddy and went ahead of everyone. Mike Morrell's AD-40 and Eric Linder's AD-60 see these two GOPers barely clinging on and living on borrowed time.
Despite all the good news, there are areas in California that got decisively redder in 2012. Southern Orange County and northern San Diego County (or rather, everything between Newport Beach to Carlsbad) reverted to form after flirting with the Democrats in 2008, staying true to the ancestral GOP roots. In Northern California, Placer and El Dorado counties, especially surrounding Roseville and El Dorado Hills, are turning into the new GOP base. A more interesting place is Hollywood and Beverly Hills, which may have given longtime stalwart Henry Waxman in CD-33 a scare. Rich privileged white men of a feather stick together?
Importantly, note the voter registration numbers and see how much they shifted over the course of less than half a year. For the past ten years, these numbers crept towards the Democrats, but at a very slow pace and was often predictable. Online voter registration dramatically accelerated this trend, leading to multiple electoral surprises. With the advent of same-day voter registration in 2014, who knows what will that bring for the Democrats?
What next?
The most important job for Democrats is keeping the seats it won in 2012. With the usual midterm dropoff and the numerous 2012 swing seat gains by Democrats, the Republicans are sure to hunger for vulnerable Dems to pick off and take back their 1/3 minority (yes, it sounds sad and pathetic, but it's important).
By far the most vulnerable Democratic seat is Steve Fox's AD-36 in the Antelope Valley. Unexpectedly winning by 145 votes on the last day of counting, Fox isn't exactly the most charismatic or visually appealing politician (have you seen his pictures?). His district also barely voted for Obama in 2012 and is ancestrally GOP, with prominent GOP city councilmembers and political families ready to take on this backbencher and former community college trustee. Hope isn't lost though; it's a long way until November 2014, and Fox has time to establish himself. The competition for the overlapping CD-25 (Buck McKeon) seat may also drive up turnout and help Fox.
The most vulnerable congressmember is most likely Scott Peters in San Diego's CD-52. His district actually shifted rightward in 2012, and he barely won in an area filled with ancestrally moderate Republicans. The GOP's strongest possible recruit here, former San Diego mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio is running, so Peters has his work cut out for him. Somewhat less vulnerable members include Ami Bera in Sacramento's CD-07 and Raul Ruiz in the Coachella Valley's CD-36.
Barring a miracle, state senate Democrats are definitely losing a seat as termed-out and redistricted-out Democrat Leland Yee of San Francisco runs for Secretary of State and a Republican wins in Riverside County-based SD-28. Their biggest imperative is then keeping Lou Correa's SD-34 in their hands. The district combines Santa Ana and Huntington Beach (a nonsensical mix of communities, but whatever) to make a swingy seat, but with a definite Democratic edge. Former Democratic assemblyman Jose Solorio is running here, and the GOP field is still in flux.
For the state assembly, other than the aforementioned AD-36, vulnerable seats include Rudy Salas's AD-32, Sharon Quirk-Silva's AD-65, and Al Muratsuchi's AD-66.
Of course, the best defense is a good offense as the cliché goes, and there are still many Republicans for Democrats to knock off. On the congressional front, Gary Miller in San Bernardino's CD-31 is pretty much a political zombie at this point, and 2014 will finish him off. CD-10's Jeff Denham and CD-21's David Valadao are wobbly depending on the challenger, while CD-25's Buck McKeon and CD-39's Ed Royce should constantly look over their shoulder.
For the state senate, the most obvious target is SD-12's Anthony Cannella, but that district is seemingly cursed, probably due to midterm dropoff by Latino voters. All other state senate seats are safe. For the assembly, other than the aforementioned AD-36, there's the aforementioned AD-40 and AD-60. Jeff Gorell's AD-44 and Rocky Chavez's AD-76 are also less than safe.
But as previously mentioned, online voter registration have shifted the numbers dramatically over the past few months, and the advent of same-day voter registration may dramatically expand the electoral field for the Democrats. It's still too early to predict what next year will look like, but it's never too early to prepare. For the Democrats to prepare, at least. Dunno about the Republicans; they might just have to pray the voters away.