The Atlantic had a piece on Secretary of State and U.S. Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes (D. KY) this past week which is worth a read. It discusses how Lundergan's father, Jerry Lundergan and President Bill Clinton will be key assets in this race of course. But the thing that stuck out from the article is Grimes' former opponent, Secretary of State GOP nominee Bill Johnson, thinks she can beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R. KY):
http://www.theatlantic.com/...
"I think it's a very winnable race for her. I don't say this as a fan of hers, I'm just being honest," he said in an interview. "She's an aggressive campaigner, she's going to be smart on how she speaks on issues, she's going to try to have it both ways. And frankly there's no record to run against. I think it will be very difficult for McConnell to run a negative campaign against her on any kind of issues. It'll have to be personal. And it's very hard to run against a woman and be negative. Other women don't like that." - The Atlantic, 7/18/13
Grimes defeated Johnson by 22 points in Kentucky. How did she do it? She made her opposition to voter ID a key issue in the race. She also made terrific ads that were positive and humorous to help her win. In the ad above, she uses both her grandmothers to promote her ideas to ease the business-licensing process. Now McConnell's staff still argues that Grimes is an untested candidate for a major race like this one. She will have to make her stances on issues like immigration, energy policy, taxes, abortion and same-sex marriage clear. But still, the Atlantic argues that Grimes still has a great chance at winning this race:
Besides her staunch opposition to requiring a voting ID and an unsuccessful legislative push this year for online balloting for overseas military, Grimes is bereft of public-policy positions. "She doesn't like to deal with the press. They keep her in a pretty tight cocoon. You tend to run into a wall unless the issue is on her terms, which is odd for a secretary of state," observed one longtime political reporter in the state who requested anonymity to speak without restraint.
But the generational and demographic contrast with the dour, characterless 71-year-old McConnell couldn't be brighter. In her first campaign email to supporters, she began to outline her frame of McConnell as a stick-in-the-mud, promising to "build a Kentucky that we can all be proud of. One that isn't dead-set on obstructionism." The frame Grimes hopes to construct: She's for what works for Kentucky; he's Senator Gridlock.
"While McConnell's certainly a formidable opponent, people are tired of the same old thing. They're going to associate McConnell with some of the problems. That's baggage he has," said Johnson. "I think the energy's going to be on her side. She's an up-and-comer in the party. I don't think the Tea Party's going to come out energized for McConnell. I think she can win it." - The Atlantic, 7/18/13
More below the fold.
And speaking of the Tea Party, it looks like they finally have a candidate to go up against McConnell:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Matthew Bevin, a Louisville businessman, is planning to announce his intentions for the 2014 United States Senate race Wednesday followed by a three-day, eight-stop tour of the state, according to a media advisory released Monday.
The advisory signals a Senate run for Bevin, who has been mulling a primary challenge against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for months. In February, he met with Kentucky tea party activists about a potential run. Politico reported that he had booked airtime for this week.
McConnell's campaign attacked Bevin on Friday in a statement. "Matthew Griswold Bevin is not a Kentucky conservative, he is merely an East Coast con man," said campaign manager Jesse Benton. "While it is sad to see someone who claims to be a Republican doing Barack Obama’s bidding, his campaign is nothing more than a nuisance. Mitch McConnell will never waiver in his fight for our Kentucky values." - Huffington Post, 7/22/13
Now McConnell already has a big war chest for re-election, more than $9.5 million to be precise. But that doesn't bother Bevin. He's wealthy and can fund his own campaign. Plus Bevin is meeting with some pretty prominent conservative groups:
http://www.politico.com/...
In the run-up to his anticipated campaign, Bevin has spoken with leaders of at least three national right-leaning advocacy groups: the widely feared Club for Growth, the Jim DeMint-founded Senate Conservatives Fund and the Madison Project, a small-government group chaired by former Kansas Rep. Jim Ryun.
Those organizations aren’t yet commenting on Bevin, given that he hasn’t declared his campaign.
While the all-but-announced McConnell challenger is believed to be wealthy enough to commit some personal resources to the race, it’s not clear whether he can — or will — fully self-fund a campaign. A key test of his viability may be whether conservative outside groups are willing to give him back-up on the airwaves. - Politico, 7/21/13
A Tea Party challenger only makes McConnell's headache even worse. He already had a bad and embarrassing week after the who nuclear option fiasco:
http://blogs.rollcall.com/...
A meeting of Senate Republicans on Wednesday grew tense as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told his members he could have gotten a better deal on nominations than the one negotiated by rank-and-file Republicans.
McConnell’s tone, according to multiple sources, implied that he had been kept in the dark about the talks between some in his own ranks and Democrats. However, those same Republicans say they kept McConnell updated throughout their negotiating process.
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., got so frustrated with McConnell’s presentation of events, that he called “bullshit” loud enough for the room to hear, nearly a half-dozen sources said. The heated exchange underscored the “buyer’s remorse” among some Republicans, especially leaders, one senior Republican said on background. - Roll Call, 7/17/13
The bad press McConnell has been receiving indicates that McConnell is losing control of his party and proving to be an ineffective leader:
http://www.courier-journal.com/...
Mr. McConnell, minority leader of Senate Republicans, became even too obstructive for his own colleagues this week as they sought to end the endless GOP filibusters that have ground Washington to a halt.
It left Mr. McConnell, who so loves the filibuster he once filibustered himself, sidelined.
It is a stunning fall from power for Mr. McConnell, famous for marching his members in lock-step party discipline, and could leave him considerably weakened as he seeks a sixth Senate term, touting his power and influence. - Louisville Courier-Journal, 7/18/13
And McConnell's big test of power control is going to be the upcoming transportation bill:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Next week, Harry Reid is expected to begin debate on the transportatio and housing package, which has already provoked a schism among Senate Republicans. Six Republican Senators voted for the bill at the committee level, angering conservative groups who say it doesn’t cut spending enough. Susan Collins, one of the Senators who voted for it (and who has repeatedly broken with the leadership), angrily denounced conservative attacks on the bill, insisting the lower levels of funding conservatives were insisting on was irresponsible when it came to preserving transportation and housing programs.
Democratic aides say they will watch Republican conduct next week to see whether there is a genuine split emerging in the GOP caucus. As one aide noted to me, the question is whether McConnell will be able to reassert control over the Republicans who voted for the bill in committee — and other Republican Senators who might be inclined to support the bill, partly out of parochial reasons and partly because infrastructure spending has historically gotten bipartisan support — and get them to oppose it when it comes to the floor. - Washington Post, 7/18/13
With things looking bad for McConnell, he's had no choice but to shift the focus on Grimes:
http://www.politico.com/...
A super PAC set up to support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is poised to launch a new round of ads against Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, according to two strategists tracking the Kentucky air war.
The group, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, has booked approximately $270,000 in television airtime starting Friday. The ads will run from July 19 to July 26.
A source said the commercials will be aimed at defining Grimes in negative terms as she works to get her Senate bid off the ground.
The crossfire in Kentucky has heated up exceptionally fast over the last month, starting even before Grimes formally entered the race. Kentuckians for Strong Leadership previously dropped about quarter-million dollars blasting Grimes at the end of June, while a pair of Democratic groups spent a similar sum going after McConnell. - Politico, 7/17/13
Of course McConnell and his people will do everything they can to label Grimes as an Obama "rubber stamper" but Grimes is already distinguishing herself from Obama:
http://wfpl.org/...
Kentucky Secretary of State and U.S. Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes says she disagrees with portions of the federal healthcare overhaul, but voting to repeal it is a waste of time.
In addition to saying she differs from the President on portions of the healthcare law, Grimes also said she stands more firmly against him when it comes to coal.
Grimes said she supports coal and touted an endorsement from the United Mine Workers of America she received during her campaign for Secretary of State in 2011. - WFPL News 89.3, 7/18/13
It's expected for Grimes to distance herself from Obama. Obama is very unpopular in Kentucky so some distancing on Grimes' part is probably needed. But she can still make this race about McConnell and still win. And with Bevin's entrance into the race and McConnell's team going on the offensive, McConnell is not only going to have to spend a lot of money securing his party's nominee but also spend a lot of money attacking Grimes. Both Grimes and Bevin create an opportunity for McConnell to become even more of an obstructionist and focus more on his campaign than on his leadership. Now McConnell may be seasoned politician but he has too many distractions on his hand and unless he can come up with a plan to save his image, the outcome just isn't good for McConnell. So while McConnell has his hands full, Grimes will be officially kicking off her campaign very soon:
http://www.courier-journal.com/...
Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes will officially roll out her U.S. Senate campaign in Lexington on July 30, according to a fundraising email sent to her supporters.
According to the email, Grimes filed paperwork with the clerk of the U.S. Senate officially announcing her desire to challenge U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell in the 2014 election.
“We need to stand up and demand that we elect leaders who will work to move Kentucky Forward,” she wrote in the email.
Grimes will end that week before what is certain to be a rowdy crowd at the Fancy Farm Picnic in Graves County. McConnell has announced he will attend the picnic as well. - Louisville Courier-Journal, 7/16/13
If you would like to get involved with Grimes' campaign, you can do so here:
http://www.alisonforky.com/
And if you would like to donate to her campaign, you can do so here:
https://secure.actblue.com/...