I have a simple dictum when it comes to politics:
Don't tell me what you believe. Tell me who you vote for, and I'll tell you what you believe
{Yea, I know. A rip-off of MB's tagline. May he have mercy on my soul.}
I believe that who one votes for is more indicative of one's core beliefs than any and all responses to non-Exit poll questions - including responses regarding "party identification". And the exit polls to the last 3 national elections (2008, 2010, and 2012) indicate that, contrary to "popular" belief, the base of the Republican party has not only not abandon the GOP, it has rallied over the past 5 years, from coast-to-coast and from border-to-border, to give the Republicans control of the majority of state governments in addition to control of the US House of Representatives.
But before delving into the dirty details, let's review just who it is that constitutes the Republican base:
Ever since Nixon's employment of the so-called Southern Strategy, the GOP has become America's White Peoples Party. As long as White people constituted the bulk of the electorate (87% in 1992), this was a winning strategy - especially on the national level. But, as the graph above indicates, since 1995, White Americans have become an ever and rapidly decreasing percentage of the total electorate. So much so that in 2008, White Americans were "just" 74% of the electorate. This change allowed for the historic election of the first non-White American to the presidency, even though 55% of White Americans voted for the Republican candidate. If the demographics of the electorate were the same in 2008 as they were in 1992, 55% of the White vote would have been enough to elected the Republican candidate.
But the leaders of the GOP, after picking themselves up and brushing themselves off from the whoopin' delivered by the Obama campaign, realized one thing. Their base had not deserted them. Except for Whites under 30 years of age, who for the first time since the voting age was lowered to 18, voted in the majority for the Democratic candidate, the GOP won the majority of White voters in every other age bracket. They also won 53% of White women voters; however, in the 2004 election the GOP won 58% of the White vote. Would they have won the 2008 election if the had won 58% of White voters? No. But instead of losing the popular vote by 7% they would have lost it by about 3%. The question for the GOP became what was the magic number, what was the percentage of White voters that would assure victory? The 2010 mid-terms would provide an answer.
I have often referred to the 2010 election as the Great White anti-Obama Backlash election because, well, that is what it really was. Many White Liberals and Progressives have tried to rationalize the Republican 2010 tsunami as a product of dissatisfied Democratic voters staying home. Actually, it was the GOP increasing their share of the White vote to 60% that allowed the Republicans to gain control of state houses in addition to the House of Representatives. Comparing the 2010 mid-terms to the 2006 mid-terms does not support the "dissatisfied Democrats staying home" argument. When one includes the fact that just about every pollster, including PPP, blew the GOP margin of victory in CA, NV, WI and PA, it is obvious that the Democratic base did turn out - just not in large enough numbers to offset the increase in White support for the GOP.
In the 2010 mid-terms, the Republicans won 58% of White women voters and 58% of White college grads. Also. The GOP base had rallied to bring the Republican party back from the brink of extinction. White voters had come home. The GOP, like herpes, simply would not go away. So it appeared that the magic number for the GOP was 60%. If they could just get 60% of the White vote they might be able to offset the changing demographics of the electorate and win the presidency. Maybe. Perhaps. But to ensure victory, the GOP took advantage of its new found power at the state level to institute voter suppression laws in Confederate and non-Confederate states alike. By this combination of increasing their share of White voters, and decreasing Democratic turnout , the GOP aimed to capture the White House in 2012. The first part of their plan "worked". The second part? Not so much.
Looking at the demographics of the 2012 presidential election, it is apparent that, again, the base of the GOP did not abandon them - though they did miss the 60% of White voters target by 1%. The GOP won 51% of White voters under 30 years of age. For White voters over 30, the GOP won over 60%. And, as in 2008, there was no real difference between how White Gen-X'ers, White Baby-Boomers and White seniors voted. Most telling, after waging a vicious "war on women", the GOP still won 56% of White women voters. The GOP even won the majority of White voters in non-Confederate states: CA - 53%; CO - 54%; IL - 52%; MI - 55%; NV - 56%; NJ - 56%; NM - 56%; OH - 57%; PA - 57%; WI 51%.
So what happened? Why didn't the Republicans win the 2012 presidential elections? Well, remember that second part of their plan, the part where they would suppress the Democratic base? Instead of suppressing the Democratic base these attempts to thwart democracy had the opposite effect. The suppression stimulated the Democratic base to the point whereBlack voters turned out at a higher rate than White voters.
The differences between how White Americans and non-White Americans vote is so great that any poll which does not include racial demographic breakdown can give misleading impressions. It may appear that a majority of Americans may be in disagreement with stated Republican policies, when, in actuality, this could result from an overwhelming majority of non-Whites disapproving, while a slim majority of Whites agree. After all, there are numerous polls which indicate that on many issues, Americans are far more progressive than the politicians they elect. But, as it is the politicians they elect which determine which policies are implemented, look to whom people vote for to determine where they really stand on issues.
As I indicated in the beginning of this diary, who one votes for is a more reliable indicator of their core beliefs than any response to a particular policy question.
And another thing that is for sure is that the base of the Republican party - that is White Americans - have not only not abandon the GOP, over the past 5 years they have only increased their support - even as the the Republican party has veered off into the loony bin.
Perhaps this is the very reason why the GOP has gone off the deep end.