If you truly believe that President Obama will refuse to negotiate with the Republican hostage takers, then you have to wonder, what is the final fate of the hostage?
Right now I think we'll have a short government shutdown over the Continuing Resolution, but this is just the warm up to the real fight next month over the debt ceiling. Well, it seems there are only 4 results of a fight over the debt ceiling;
1) The Democrats cave and we get Sequester II.
2) The Republicans cave and Boehner loses his job.
3) Obama mints the Trillion dollar coin.
4) Obama invokes the 14th Amendment.
Let's take a step back and look at how we got here. We are here simply because Obama and the Democrats gave in to hostage taking in 2011. If Obama and Democrats give in to hostage taking again, it's a sure thing that the Tea party will hold the country hostage every time the debt ceiling needs to be raised, or they'll find something else to take hostage, until everything FDR and LBJ worked for to make a fair society will be chipped away until it's all gone. This truly is a major turning point in American history. This fight will determine whether the U.S. will return to a gilded age ruled by Oligarchs or whether we can return to a path that provides equal opportunity for all.
This is the most important decision that President Obama will make in his presidency, and possibly the most important decision any president in the last several decades has made.
Right now, I think the possibility of a Democratic cave is 50/50. Under this scenario the Republicans submit their ransom note with a huge list of obscene demands. As the deadline draws near, they start giving up some of their demands while making a big public splash about the Democrats refusing to be reasonable and negotiate. At some point, a very uninformed public will turn against the Democrats and their stubborn refusal to negotiate, while the GOP has voluntarily given up so much. The blue dogs cave first, which puts even more pressure on the Dems, then the rest of the Dems cave and we get sequester II. Tea party wins again and hostage taking becomes part of "governing".
There is the possibility that the Democrats will put their own list of demands on the table at the last minute, a list such as more investment in education, higher taxes on the wealthy, raising the minimum wage... A list that contrasts Democratic priorities, which are closer to the public's priorities, with the greedy and cruel Republican priorities. And then both lists cancel in a final compromise and it's all a wash. This may be the preferred way out of this until we have a Democratic house and/or Supreme court.
Under possibility 2, the Republicans cave with nothing and Boehner loses his job. Yep, and global warming is the worlds greatest hoax, and Adam and Eve rode dinosaurs in the garden of Eden. Don't hold your breath for this one.
The Trillion dollar coin. You're probably familiar with this one. President Obama orders a Trillion dollar coin to be minted and deposited at the Federal Reserve. The Fed gives the Treasury a Trillion dollars in real dollars and they then pay the debts. I think a gimmick like this would crush world confidence and we would have a financial crises, but not as bad as a default.
That leaves the 14th amendment. The president invokes the 14th amendment and orders the bills to be paid and tells the Tea Party to go F#$%k yourselves. But if the president does this, there's no doubt there would be a quick lawsuit that would go all the way to the Supreme Court. Is there any guidance the court could follow?
According to Justia.com the only case to deal with this part of the 14th amendment is Perry V U.S. from 1935.
Section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment, declaring that "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, . . . shall not be questioned," is confirmatory of a fundamental principle, applying as well to bonds issued after, as to those issued before, the adoption of the Amendment, and the expression "validity of the public debt " embraces whatever concerns the integrity of the public obligations.
But remember, we're dealing with the Roberts' court. A court I consider to be one of the most activist courts in U.S. history, and that ignores precedent at it's convenience. I hope this reinforces the idea that people should get off their asses and vote for Democratic presidents for no other reason than they appoint people to the Supreme Court.
So the final decision of whether the U.S. can default on it's debt, and whether the world will be plunged into an economic depression much worse than the 2008 depression, will be in the hands of Scalia, Thomas, Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy.
In reality, a world depression just might benefit the Oligarchs. In the chaos of a default and a depression, you might expect the uninformed and misinformed public to develop a "throw the bums out" and "let's give the other guys a chance" attitude, and elect a Tea Party Senate in 2014 and a Tea Party president in 2016. With this in mind, will the conservatives on the court, who swear allegiance to their Oligarch puppet masters decide that plunging the world into chaos is the best way to serve their masters?
We are heading for a very dangerous period in the coming months, so hang on to your butts, it's going to be a wild ride.