Hope springs eternal when the calendar turns to a new year. Resolutions are made, bad habits are put on a to be vanquished list, extra weight we have lived with for years is put on its annual to be shed list and even the most vexing aspects of our lives briefly appear to be manageable. And when the new year is an election year as well, even hardened political cynics embrace the fleeting chance for hope and change.
Sadly, the prospects for good government in 2014 are virtually nil. The nihilists who hate government are still the majority in the House of Representatives. It would not be helpful to their cause for the government to be seen as a solution to the myriad of ills that beset our society, so the same Congress that set the all-time record for do nothingness last term, can be expected to challenge that low bar of competence again this year.
Democrats would love to win back the majority in the House of Representatives in November, but the solid Republican lock on the old Confederacy, a 90% reelection rate and inspired gerrymandering after the 2010 Republican wave election have tempered those dreams.
Congressional budget battles have been negated by a bipartisan truce, but the debt limit will need to be raised again in a month, so we can count on more fiscal brinksmanship as Republicans again try to win policy victories by ransom note, rather than the ballot box. And it is a certainty that the party of family values will try to repeal the Affordable care Act, even though it working as planned and millions now have access to quality healthcare for the first time.
For the third straight election cycle the numbers favor Republicans winning back a Senate majority. 21 Democrats are up for reelection, compared with just 12 Republicans. In addition there are five open Democratic seats because of retirements, four of those in nominally Republican states. Democrats currently hold a ten seat advantage and six Republican victories are within the realm of possibility.
Off year elections are base elections and the Republican base is highly motivated and turns out to vote; the Democrats, not so much. To hold the Senate, Democrats will need to turn out their base and that will be the major challenge for the national party. Republicans can help like they did in 2012 by nominating candidates so far out of the mainstream that sure pickups turned into wins for the Democrats. But it is chancy to rely on the kindness of politics; turning out the progressive base is a better path to victory.
2014 will also be the kick off year for the open presidential election in 2016 and just days into the new year we are already seeing major developments. The establishment Republican frontrunner, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is taking serious hits to his ship of state. None have hit below the waterline yet, the barrage continues and the damage so far looks as if it may knock him out of the race before he is even able to get in. Governor Christie was the best hope for the establishment conservatives, who do not have a deep bench. He is now damaged goods and it remains to be seen if he can win a Republican primary, let alone defeat the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.
There is a rift growing in the Republican Party as the country club establishment wing tries to wrest control back from the grassroots Tea Party wing. This rift will be in full evidence as Republican presidential contenders begin to campaign and gather support. The Tea Party has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to candidates and the next two years will be replete with them trying to out crazy each other to win over a shrinking base. I can hardly wait.
Our Constitution created an adversary system of head to head battles for political victories. In the past those battles often led to compromise and governing for the good of the American people. 21st Century politics is the antithesis, zero sum battles for raw power, with the American people turned into cannon fodder and it may be years before that pendulum swings back. Politics is many things, frustrating, invigorating, enlightening, destructive and constructive, but it is never dull and boring.