This is the 2014 version of the diaries I posted in 2012, which I am very proud of my accuracy, getting every statewide race (including judicial) and congressional race correct, overestimating the Democrats by 3 seat in the House, and overestimating the Republicans by 2 seats in the senate. I will be revisiting the entire state legislature in Part 2. For Part, statewide races and congressional races will be covered. Enjoy!
My rankings are based on the following percentages of Likelihood of winning.
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
MN-Sen.
In 2008, former Saturday Night Live writer/actor Al Franken defeated incumbent senator Norm Coleman by 312 votes. The court cases and recounts prevented Senator Franken from being seated all the way until summer 2009. Franken is running for reelection after a quiet 5 ½ years in the senate. Challenging Franken are a total of 7 candidates, with two of them, Parrish and Schudlik, just being random people. I don’t know enough about them to really say anything else about them other than they are running. The other 5 candidates in reverse order of likelihood to win the nomination are as follows: Businessman/farmer/hairdresser Monti Moreno is most famous for bringing a loaded gun to his 1996 rally when he was running against then-senator Paul Wellstone, and then making a thinly veiled threat to assassinate the senator during his speech. This caused a HUGE uproar, and upon further investigation (really this was pre-internet age) people realized he is not 100% okay. Other Republicans and conservative activists have dismissed him as a kook, and with good reason. He won’t be a factor in the race, but he does liven up the debates. St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg was a candidate I found very intriguing at first. Dahlberg represents the blue part of the bluest city in one of the bluest counties in the entire state in his Western Duluth based commissioner seat. To be honest I was astonished that he was a Republican when he entered the race, because Republicans simply don’t exist in that part of the country. Unfortunately for Dahlberg he has not gained any traction with delegates due to his moderate nature, he has been unable to fundraise, and chose not to even attend the April 1st debate held by the Republican Jewish Coalition of Minnesota in St. Louis Park. I would be surprised if he hasn’t withdrawn by the time the state convention comes along. State Representative Jim Abeler is a 16-year incumbent from Anoka County. Abeler is a quiet libertarian-leaning conservative politician that endorsed Ron Paul for President. Abeler finished 3rd in the straw poll in February, and I suspect most of his non-diehard libertarian supporters have been scooped up by McFadden or Ortman. Abeler has not been able to fundraise extensively, pulling in only 87k by the end of 2013. Abeler will likely stay through the convention, but abide by the endorsement and not go forward to the primary. Businessman Mike McFadden was a blank slate random rich dude when he announced in 2013, promising to throw tons of money at the race. Initially he was seen with a curious eye, both locally and nationally. Eventually the local curiosity seemed to fade as rumors and excerpts of former statements were unearthed. However this interest attrition did not extend to national Republicans the way it did statewide Republicans. McFadden has drawn powerful Washington donors to fundraise for him to supplement his own self-fundraising, including Mitch McConnell himself. His handlers have kept him out of the spotlight, to an extreme extent even. McFadden didn’t give any press conferences, didn’t really do any public events for months and months, and only really came into the spotlight during the April 1st debate. After hearing what was said there, and getting feedback from two sources that were at the debate, McFadden has become a nearly non-serious candidate in my book, and I am not alone there. Given his huge bank account, his 2nd place finish at the February strawpoll and the delegates that came with it, and the fact that he says he will march forward to the August primary even if he loses the endorsement, he cannot be completely discounted. For what it is worth, he is the only Republican in the race that has refused to abide by the endorsement. St. Senator, and former Senate Assistant Minority Leader, before being primaried in 2012 (she ultimately won, but was damaged) and was stripped of her leadership duties for the 2013-2014 session is running. Ortman has raised only 250k so far, but her local support seems to be strengthening as we get closer to the convention, she clearly won the April 1st debate, has a delegate lead, and has started picking up national endorsements of her own, most notably Sarah Palin.
The most likely outcome, in my view is that Ortman gets the 60% needed at a convention with enough mainstream Republicans holding their nose and voting for her, then McFadden will go nuclear on her leading up to the August primary, where Ortman will win by a wider margin than she win the endorsement. Either way, this race is strongly in Franken’s favor at the moment. Most likely an 8-10 point victory for the incumbent.
Likely D
MN-1
Tim Walz has settled into congress after unseating long-term GOP Rep Gil Gutknecht in 2006. Walz sits in a marginal district, but has endeared himself to his constituents and beat former State Representative Al Quist 58-42 last cycle. Another legislator, Mike Benson (R-Rochester) is taking a shot at Walz this time around. Benson was swept into his seat in the 2010 wave, but held it respectably well in 2012. Benson has only raised 60k for the race as of the last filing, whereas Walz has raised over 600k, and is taking the race seriously. Walz is a very tireless campaigner, and he had comparable fundraising totals in 2011 leading up to his matchup with Quist. I suspect that Walz will probably win by 10.
Likely D
MN-2
John Kline is termed out of his chairmanship of the Education Committee in 2017, but he is running for reelection in 2014. I suspect he hangs it up in 2016 though. Former State Rep Mike Obermueller is taking a second shot at the seat after holding Kline to a surprisingly low 8% margin. Obermueller is not likely to beat Kline, but his race is designed to solidify his spot as the DFL candidate to take a serious crack at the seat when it comes open. But for now, Kline is very entrenched, mostly inoffensive, and has a big warchest. Barring something strange, Kline will hold onto this (2x) Obama-voting seat in 2014
Likely R
MN-3
Erik Paulsen once served as Minnesota State House Minority Leader before moving into congress following Jim Ramstad’s (R) retirement in 2006. Paulsen has held this affluent marginal district (Obama won in by 3000 votes in 2012). Paulsen has dominated his last two elections, winning by 18+ in each 2010 and 2012. Paulsen will be fine in this seat until he tries to take a shot at higher office down the road, which is a foregone conclusion. Until that point, I don’t see him having a serious race, and no serious Democrat of note is running against hin in 2014. I expect a 20%+ blowout here for Paulsen.
Safe R
MN-4
Betty McCollum has been in congress since 2000, and is perhaps the most anonymous 14-year incumbent in the Midwest. She will have no trouble holding down this St. Paul based seat for an 8th term in November. As of now she does not have a declared challenger at all, but I suspect someone will announce in the end.
Safe D
MN-5
Keith Ellison, most famous for being the first Muslim-American member of congress two years prior to Indiana’s Andre Carson, is running for reelection in the bluest district in the state, the Minneapolis-based D+22 MN-5. Ellison is seen as a polarizing figure, but is in no danger of losing. Like McCollum next door, Ellison does not yet have a challenger. But even if one shows up, it won’t matter. Ellison by 40-50 points.
Safe D
MN-6
Michele Bachmann has chosen to hang it up after grossly underperforming in the most Republican district in the state instead of go for a 4th term. Before Bachmann withdrew, her 2012 opponent, businessman Jim Graves was gearing up for a rematch, but after she withdrew, he followed suit. On the Republican side, 2010 gubernatorial candidate former State Rep Tom Emmer has entered the race. He is a prohibitive favorite in the primary, as he has the name recognition, political connections, and is from the political gravitational center of the district: Wright County. Two other serious Republican candidates are running for the nomination, and without Emmer, either would be a strong candidate. Chairwoman of the Anoka County Commission Rhonda Sivarajah threw her hat in the wrong, as did former State Rep Phil Krinkle, the president of the Minnesota Taxpayers League. Krinkle actually doesn’t live in MN-6, but instead resides in McCollum’s MN-4. On the Democratic side, a couple B-list candidates are running, a Saint John’s University professor, and the mayor of Sartell(!!!) Joseph Perseke. Sartell is one of the most reflexively Republican areas in the district as a suburb of St. Cloud. But, Sartell is small, and far away from the political center of the district. What is going to happen is Emmer will run away with the nomination, grossly underperform Generic R in the district, but not be at risk of losing it the way Bachmann has been.
Safe R
MN-7
Republicans fired some shots across Peterson’s bow, but this just had the opposite effect as intended, it made Peterson more resolved than ever to seek reelection. He has drawn a strong Republican challenger in State Senator Torrey Westrom. Westrom is a well-regarded state legislator who was blinded in an accident years ago. He has been referred to as Boy Wonder since he was first elected in 1996 at age 22. Westrom is taking the Obermueller route in this race. It is a free shot for him against an entrenched incumbent, and is really doing it to mark his territory as heir apparent to Peterson. Peterson will win this race handily, as he has faced strong candidates before, and hasn’t had a close race in 20 years. Once Peterson retires, Westrom will likely skate to congress, but not until then
Likely D
MN-8
(Disclosure:I was once a paid campaign staffer for Congressman Rick Nolan)
Long-ago Congressman Rick Nolan took the plunge and unseated accidental congressman Chip Cravaack by 10 points in 2012. Nolan was originally a Watergate Baby way back when Minnesota’s congressional districts looked quite a bit different with 4 outstate districts instead of the current 3. Anyways, Nolan was challenged by a few others in the primary, but Tarryl Clark never stood a chance after carpetbagging her way over from MN-6, and then-Duluth City Council president was too politically inexperienced to beat Nolan. Nolan has since brought Anderson under his wing, and the wonkish Anderson is running Nolan’s reelection campaign in 2014. Challenging him on the GOP side is Retail heir Stuart Mills III. Mills is the namesake of his grandfather, who founded a very prominent change of outdoor outfitters / hardware store / farm supply store Mills’ Fleet Farm. Mills is a lot like Dayton insomuch as he does not possess the business acumen of his grandfather, or even his father, but has a deep interest in being a politician. However Mills is a wealthy man with a good last night. So far I have been mostly unimpressed with his campaign, and this turf is a steep climb for a Republican, especially since his base is Nolan’s hometown, where Nolan is quite popular and over performed the DFL ticket against Cravaack. I don’t expect Nolan to lose, or even be at risk of losing, but I am keeping my eye on the race as Mills has deep pockets and Nolan hasn’t really entered the 21st century fundraising requirements of U.S. politics.
Likely D
MN-Gov
Mark Dayton has been left for dead several times in his political career, which is quite interesting as he has never lost a general election in his life, and is 3-0 in statewide elections. Dayton is a very difficult man to work with, as he is not above throwing his friends or enemies under the bus at a moment’s notice. His Lt. Governor Yvonne Prettner-Solon quit, and Dayton selected his CoS Tina Smith to be his running mate Smith was not part of Dayton’s inner circle, but was a close advisor of Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak during his race against Dayton for the DFL nod for governor in 2010. Smith is a brilliant political mind, but she is not a politician, and she and Dayton are both from Minneapolis, which in my view was an unforced error on the part of Dayton due to the line of attack long used against Dayton: “Governor of Minneapolis”. But, Dayton has the benefit of a strong state economy, a budget surplus, and being able to contrast Minnesota’s social and economic tracks vs. neighboring Wisconsin’s, which he does regularly. On the Republican side, a number of solid Republican recruits emerged to take on the popular Dayton. The candidates are listed in reverse order of likelihood of winning the nomination: Businessman Scott Honour has been running for this longer than anyone else in the field. Like McFadden, Honour is a wealthy man, but has not really gotten traction. He has gotten caught in a few mistruths during his campaign, including claiming an RGA endorsement for himself. His campaign has not gotten off the ground, and I doubt he has many if any delegates left for him. Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Zellers was the 600 pound elephant in the room, as he was the highest office holder to run, but his tenure as Speaker was sketchy at best. He oversaw a state shutdown, pushing for two constitutional amendments which failed instead of passing a budget, and saw his majority swiftly voted out after a single term. He did not gain as much traction in the caucuses as I expected, finishing behind several lesser known GOP hopefuls. He will undoubtedly have some support at the state convention given his stature, but I don’t see a path to victory for him in the nomination convention nor in the primary if it goes that far. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson had a respectable showing in the caucus, and is a solid politician in his own right, but with the closeness of the 2-man contest in front of him, I expect significant attrition of his delegates, most likely going to Dave Thompson. Former Minnesota House Minority Leader Marty Seifert was a 2010 GOP candidate for this race in 2010 (losing to Emmer narrowly). Seifert actually had the best showing at the caucuses, but being an outstate politician, he faces immense hurdles in getting the nomination. Seifert was a strong favorite for the GOP nod 4 years ago, but was beat out by a metro candidate, Emmer. I am fairly sure that Seifert would have beaten Dayton in 2010, and Dayton only won due to Emmer being a weak candidate. Lastly, I believe the favorite is the aforementioned Dave Thompson, a state senator from Lakeville. I think at the moment Thompson is behind, but has much more room to grow before the convention, as Seifert has already consolidated his base of outstate candidates.
I believe that Thompson wins the nomination, but Dayton is much more popular now than anyone could have foreseen just 2-3 years ago, and Minnesota is in a much better spot economically than much of the rest of the country. I don’t see it as being all that close of a race, and early polling is showing a 10-20 point leader for Dayton over Thompson, and Seifert for that matter. I think it will narrow as the election nears, but not enough to change the outcome of the race.
Interesting fact, every Lt. Governor Minnesota has had since the 1982 election has been female, and that will continue as Dayton, Seifert, and Thompson have all picked female running mates.
Likely D
MN-AG
Minnesota is known for being the longest Democratic voting state for President in the country, going back to 1972. But Minnesota is even more fond of its Democratic Attorney Generals. Every Minnesota Attorney General since 1970 has been a Democrat, and only a single term has it been a Republican going back to 1955. Incumbent AG Lori Swanson is running for a 3rd term, and is the safest statewide official running for reelection. As of now she doesn’t have a GOP challenger, and is focusing her efforts and building bridges to be Dayton’s heir apparent as governor in 2018.
Safe D
MN-Aud
Minnesota Auditor Rebecca Otto is running for her 3rd term in November. In 2010 she was seen as the weakest of the 3 constitutional office holders, and the GOP went after her hard in her first reelection campaign, unsuccessfully. In 2006 she unseated incumbent Patricia Anderson (R), who now holds a State Senate Seat in her home town. I have heard rumors that she is considering a rematch 8 years in the making, but she has not filed, nor said one way or another as far as I know. Currently Rebecca Otto only has token opposition in the general election, but I expect that to change. She has improved her standing in the state, and is seen more of a political force than a wave baby. I don’t see her being unseated, but until I see who declares for the Republicans I am going to keep it at a Likely Rating, as Safe ratings are very difficult to come by from me (<99%).
Likely D
MN-SoS
Incumbent Mark Ritchie is choosing not to seek reelection after 8 years in office. When he announced his retirement, a wave of candidates from both parties expressed interest. Some pulled the trigger on a run, and some didn’t. Oddly, apparent GOP nominee Dennis Nguyen abruptly withdrew after it came to light that he likes strippers. Personally, I find that to be a silly reason to pull the plug on a free shot at a nomination, but he is entitled to withdraw as he saw fit. This left Republicans without a candidate of any type for a couple days until former State Senator John Howe (R-Redwing) jumped in. Howe lost reelection to his marginal district (Romney won it by a point) by underperforming the GOP ticket in the district. Regardless, Howe is an upgrade from a random political neophyte. The Democrats have two suburban incumbent State Representatives running for the seat, and I frankly can’t handicap this race with certitude as they are close. Rep Debra Hilstrom (D-Brooklyn Center) and Steve Simon (D-St. Louis Park) are fairly evenly matched, but gun to my head I give Simon the edge. Simon and Hilstrom are both stronger candidates than Howe, but it is an open seat.
Lean D