Since this is a subject which requires quite a a lot of background information, and as a result the text is very long, I published it in three parts.
The first two parts are background information. They are available here:
Iraqi Kurdistan: Will it go for independence? Part I
Iraqi Kurdistan: Will it go for independence? Part II
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Since the recent ISIS offensive in Iraq began there has been much discussion of the possibility that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq will declare its independence and also of whether it should or shouldn't declare its independence.
The saga of the Iraqi Kurds has a certain idealistic attraction; after decades, or even centuries, a downtrodden people have independence within their grasp.
This is a summary of several points which could be considered when the subject of possible independence for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is discussed.
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- Sustainability
The borders of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRoI) are defined in the Iraqi constitution. These borders do not include the disputed territories which the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) claims are part of Iraqi Kurdistan. (Maps are in Part I.)
The KRoI has an area of (40,643 sq km) which is a little over 9% of the area of Iraq. For comparison the KRoI is a little bigger than Maryland.
The KRoI is densely populated and probably has a population of about 4,500,000. Its population is mostly Kurdish with an Assyrian/Chaldean minority (~12%), a Turkmen minority (~5%), and a small number of Arabs and Assyrians.
While Iraqi Kurdistan as defined by the KRG, the KRoI and the disputed territories, has an area about twice the size of the KRoI, which is about 18% of the area of Iraq. For comparison this area is about the size of South Carolina.
The KRG expanded its control over more of the these disputed areas after the recent ISIS offensive in Iraq began.
Iraqi Kurdistan as defined by the KRG is also densely populated and probably has a population of about 7,500,000. Its population is mostly Kurdish with an Arab minority (~12%), a Turkmen minority (~8%), an Assyrian/Chaldean minority (~8%), and a small number of Assyrians.
Both the KRoI and the disputed territories have moderate to good rainfall and much of the land in both areas is arable. However, the regions do not produce enough food to feed their populations and a good deal of food is imported.
Both areas also have significant oil and natural gas deposits, but there are very limited refining capacities in both areas.
Even though the KRoI has generally been recovering more quickly than the rest of Iraq from the damage done to the Iraqi economy and infrastructure by the US occupation, serious economic, industrial development, and infrastructure shortcomings continue.
Unemployment is a major problem in all of Iraq and will continue to be a major problem in the KRoI and the disputed territories due to their high population growth rates. Half of the population of the KRoI and the disputed territories is 20 years old or younger.
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- Iraqi Kurdish Unity
The KRG is often portrayed as a united democratic government which works for the rights and aspirations of the Kurds of Iraq and the region.
Even though the Iraqi Kurds are more unified now than they have ever been, serious remnants of their past divisions remain.
The current KRG is a divided government which took nine months of negotiations to form after last year's regional election.
Currently there are tribal divides, linguistic divides, economic divides, liberal and conservative divides, secular and religious divides, advocates of cooperation with the Iraqi government versus advocates of confrontation with the Iraqi government, advocates of closer relations with the Iranian government versus advocates of closer relations with the current Turkish government, and supporters of the PKK and PYD versus opponents of the PKK and PYD.
The road to overcome their divisions has been long.
The two major Iraqi Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and several other smaller, mostly leftist, Kurdish and Assyrian parties established the Iraqi Kurdistan Front (IKF), with encouragement from Iran, in May, 1988.
Even though the IKF was a described as a united front the KDP and PUK each had separate administrations, militias, police forces, and intelligence services in the areas which they controlled.
These separate administrations, militias, etc. continued when the IKF was replaced by the Kurdistan National Assembly in 1992.
From 1994 to 1998 there was a civil war between the KDP and PUK which ended when the KDP and PUK signed the US mediated Washington Accord of 1998.
It wasn't until 2006 that the separate KDP and PUK administrations combined to form a unified government.
In 2009 the separate KDP and PUK militias (Peshmerga) began the still ongoing process of unification into a single force.
The draft constitution for the KRoI, which was prepared by the KRG in 2009, still has not been submitted to a referendum and calls for it to be revised continue.
The separate KDP and PUK police forces and intelligence services have still not been unified.
Allegations of corruption are widespread in the KRoI, as are allegations of the brutal suppression of any opposition, including the KRG's response to the 'Kurdish Spring' of the past few years.
The Assyrian/Chaldean minority in the KRoI, who are concentrated in the northwestern corner of the KRoI have expressed an interest in the establishment of an Assyrian/Chaldean Region. However, the laws of the KRoI forbid this.
Many Iraqi Turkmen who live in the disputed territories have expressed their reluctance towards the disputed territories being included in the KRoI and have stated that they believe that a referendum about the inclusion of the disputed territories in the KRoI would be defeated.
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- The Process
The draft KRoI constitution states the KRG's official position regarding its status as a region of Iraq.
Article 1:
The Iraqi Kurdistan Region is a region within the Federal State of Iraq. It is a democratic republic with a parliamentary political system that is based on political pluralism, the principle of separation of powers, and the peaceful transfer of power through direct, general, and periodic elections that use a secret ballot.
Article 7:
The people of Iraqi Kurdistan shall have the right to determine their own destiny, and they have chosen out their own free will, to be a federal region within Iraq, as long as Iraq abides by the federal, democratic, parliamentary and pluralistic system, and remains committed to the human rights of individuals and groups, as stipulated in the Federal Constitution.
The Iraqi constitution is very clear about the unity of Iraq.
Article 1:
The Republic of Iraq is a single federal, independent and fully sovereign state in which the system of government is republican, representative, parliamentary, and democratic, and this Constitution is a guarantor of the unity of Iraq.
Article 109:
The federal authorities shall preserve the unity, integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Iraq and its federal democratic system.
If the Iraqi Kurds were to change their position and seek independence, the Iraqi government constitutionally cannot agree to the independence of the KRoI.
This would leave only four alternatives for the KRoI to achieve independence:
- Constitutional amendments to the Iraqi constitution, or the drafting of a new constitution, which would allow the independence of the KRoI.
- A unilateral declaration of independence without a resulting civil war which would most likely result in a situation similar to that of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus where there is no international recognition of the declaration's legality and little or no recognition by other states of the new state's sovereignty.
- A civil war where the Iraqi Kurds defeat the Iraqi government's forces and force the recognition of the region's independence in a peace treaty.
- A civil war which results in UN Security Council intervention similar to the events in Kosovo between 1998 and 2008.
Note: The UN Security Council cannot adopt a resolution which would simply create or recognize a new sovereign state in northern Iraq.
One of the most important problems which would have to be overcome in the second and fourth alternatives, and possibly also the first, is what the borders of the new state would be. While the US prepared Iraqi constitution is very favorable for the KRoI it defines borders which do not include the disputed territories which the KRG claims are a part of Iraqi Kurdistan.
The first alternative is very, very unlikely.
The second is possible but would most probably be only a symbolic 'victory' for the Iraqi Kurds and could result in international and economic isolation.
The third is unlikely, very destructive, and could result in a heavily damaged independent state that is an international pariah.
The fourth is not only unlikely, it is also very destructive, very drawn out, and would require the region to become a UN protectorate before becoming a state with limited sovereignty and recognition, as Kosovo is today.
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- The status and rights of the KRoI under the Iraqi constitution
The Iraqi constitution is extraordinarily advantageous for the KRoI. (States' Rights to the extreme)
It recognizes the existence of the KRG by name. It defines the borders of the KRoI, recognizes the existence of the disputed territories, and spells out methods for resolving the status of the disputed territories.
The Iraqi government is given very limited exclusive powers in the Iraqi constitution, and some of these are made non-exclusive to the Iraqi government by other articles in the constitution.
While at the same time, according to the Iraqi constitution the KRG can modify, override, or just ignore, any laws passed by the Iraqi government except for those laws which pertain directly to the very limited exclusive powers granted to the Iraqi government.
It is the KRG's position that this also extends to international treaties ratified by the Iraqi government, which according to the KRG, apply to the KRoI only if the treaty is also approved by the KRG.
The Iraqi constitution also recognizes the legality of all laws passed by the KRG since 1992 and allows the KRG to manage customs in the region. It also mandates the establishment of KRG offices in Iraq's diplomatic missions. The KRG has a Department of Foreign Relations which has representative offices in 13 countries and a mission to the EU.
These excerpts from the draft KRoI constitution provide examples of the KRG's positions regarding the status, rights, and powers of the KRoI under the Iraqi constitution.
Article 3:
First:
The people are the source of authority and the basis of its legitimacy: said authority shall be exercised by the people through their constitutional institutions. The Constitution and the laws of the Kurdistan Region are sovereign and supersede all laws issued by the Iraqi government outside of the exclusive jurisdiction of the Federal Republic of Iraq.
Second:
In accordance with Article 115 and Paragraph 2 of Article 121 of the Federal Constitution, in the event that the federal law deals with matters within the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal authorities, as listed in Article 110 of the Federal Constitution, or with other matters outside this jurisdiction, this shall not detract from the sovereignty and supremacy of the Constitution and laws of the Kurdistan Region, nor shall it limit the powers of the Region's authorities.
Article 4:
Kurdistan Parliament may put into effect in the Region any federal law that is outside the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal authorities, as stipulated in Article 110 of the Federal Constitution of the Republic of Iraq.
Article 8:
First:
International treaties and agreements which the Federal Government enters into with any foreign state or party, and which affect the status or rights of the Kurdistan Region shall be effective in the Region if said treaties and agreements meet with the approval of an absolute majority of the Members of the Kurdistan Parliament.
Second:
Treaties and agreements which the Federal Government enters into with foreign states shall not be effective in the Kurdistan Region if they deal with matters outside the Federal Government's exclusive jurisdiction, in accordance with Article 110 of the Federal Constitution, unless an absolute majority of the Members of the Kurdistan Parliament approve the implementation of said treaties and agreements in the Region.
Third:
The Kurdistan Region shall have the right to enter into agreements with foreign states or with regions within foreign states regarding issues that do not lie within the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal authorities, as stipulated in Article 110 of the Federal Constitution.
Fourth:
An agreement concluded between the Kurdistan Region and the governments of foreign states shall be submitted to the Federal Government to secure its approval. Said agreement shall not be effective if the Federal Government refuses to approve it for legal reasons.
Article 13:
No fee or tax may be imposed, modified or waived in the Kurdistan Region without the approval of the Kurdistan Parliament, who must pass a law to that effect.
http://perlemanikurdistan.com/...
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- The importance of neighboring countries in the independence equation
Since an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would be a landlocked country its economic health would depend completely on its relations with its four neighbors - Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
If all four of these countries refused to, or were unable to, allow transportation through their territories to and from an independent Iraqi Kurdistan the country would suffer severe economic hardships.
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- The importance of the independence calculations to Kurds in neighboring countries
Many Syrian Kurds, some Turkish Kurds, and some Iranian Kurds strongly desire the establishment of Kurdish regions or even autonomous Kurdish regions in their countries.
If the KRoI were to declare independence in the near future the possibility of the establishment of such regions in these countries would evaporate in an instant.
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- The Turkish Variable
Until the current Turkish Government came to power the positions of the previous governments towards Turkey's geographic location was basically that Turkey was in a dangerous neighborhood and that the country had to be strong militarily to protect itself and that it was better to maintain cordial but distant relations with neighboring countries.
Their positions towards Turkey's history was basically that the ashes of the failed Ottoman Empire should be swept away and a new republic built in its place.
The current government's positions towards Turkey's geographic location and history are remarkably different.
It is this government's position that Turkey's geographic location and its being the successor of the Ottoman Empire automatically endows Turkey with the right to be the major power in the region to which the other states in the region look and depend on for guidance.
This is what will color the Turkish government's position towards a possible declaration of independence by the KRG. If the KRG accepts the notion of a Turkish 'guiding hand' and ties itself economically to Turkey, this Turkish government could support such a move while convincing itself that it will be able to deal with any repercussions which will result from it.
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- My Opinion
It is my opinion that the KRoI should not and will not seek independence at this time.
Note: The President of the KRoI, Masoud Barzani, has stated that he wants a referendum on the independence of the KRoI to be held within months. This is only days after he asked the UN for assistance in organizing a referendum in the disputed territories to determine their status.
The Head of the KRG's Department of Foreign Relations, Falah Mustafa Bakir, has repeated President Barzani's position and called on the international community to support a referendum.
It is important to understand that President Barzani and Mr. Bakir are from the KDP, which has 34 of the 111 seats in the KRoI Parliament, and seem to be stating the KDP's position, not the government's position.
There are several reasons why I believe that the KRoI should not and will not seek independence at this time, among them are:
I do not believe that Iraq will devolve into a cauldron of sectarian violence which makes it impossible for the country to remain unified - in other words "The reports of Iraq's demise are greatly exaggerated.",
the question of borders - the status of the disputed territories has not been resolved,
the lack of a legal mechanism to obtain independence,
the extremely advantageous position the KRoI has in Iraq, provided by the Iraqi constitution,
the continuing disunity in the KRoI,
the limited refining capacities in the region (Following the recent ISIS offensive in Iraq and the suspension of production in the Baiji refinery, serious shortages have developed in the KRoI, rationing has been imposed by the KRG, and the KRoI's economy has slowed dramatically.),
the reality that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would be extremely dependent on one or more neighboring countries, and
the chilling effect it would have on the possibility of Kurdish regions being established in neighboring countries.
The KRG has three major disputes with the Iraqi government. The question of international oil and gas sales, the distribution of revenues from oil and gas sales, and the resolution of the status of the disputed territories.
All three are in the process of being resolved and can be resolved, but it will take a year or two, and considering what has happened in Iraq in the past 11 years and the way the deck is stacked towards incomprehensibility and away from unity by the US prepared Iraqi constitution, that's not too bad.
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- Regarding the Treatment of Protesters, etc.
The Iraqi constitution was written by Americans who seem to have been obsessed with terrorism and to have been none too happy about those pesky rights which get in the way of dealing with it.
Both the KRG and the Iraqi government cite the very broadly worded Article 7 of the Iraqi constitution as justification for their actions towards protesters and opponents.
Article 7:
First: Any entity or program that adopts, incites, facilitates, glorifies, promotes, or justifies racism or terrorism or accusations of being an infidel (takfir) or ethnic cleansing, especially the Saddamist Ba’ath in Iraq and its symbols, under any name whatsoever, shall be prohibited. Such entities may not be part of political pluralism in Iraq. This shall be regulated by law.
Second: The State shall undertake to combat terrorism in all its forms, and shall work to protect its territories from being a base, pathway, or field for terrorist activities.
This is echoed in Article 19, Section Eighteen, Paragraph 4 of the draft KRoI constitution.
Article 19- Freedom, Life and Dignity:
...
Eighteen:
...
4- Any entry or approach that adopts, instigates, facilitates, glorifies, promotes, or justifies ethnic or sectarian cleansing or a chauvinist, fascist, racist, terrorist, or infidel ideology shall be prohibited. The authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan shall be committed to combating terrorism in all its forms, and shall work to protect the territories of the Region from becoming a centre or a gateway or a platform for terrorist activity.
In the US prepared Iraqi constitution unreasonable searches and seizures are not prohibited, warrantless searches are not forbidden - except for homes, people cannot refuse to testify against themselves, there is no right to a speedy trial and trials can be held in secret if the judge decides to do so, people don't have the rights to call defense witnesses or to confront witnesses who testify against them in court, and cruel and unusual punishment is not forbidden.
This is another example of the bizarreness which exists in the Iraqi constitution.
Article 37:
First:
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C. All forms of psychological and physical torture and inhumane treatment are prohibited. Any confession made under force, threat, or torture shall not be relied on, and the victim shall have the right to seek compensation for material and moral damages incurred in accordance with the law.