The year is 2015. In a stunning 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court has just ruled that a centuries-old territorial division was unlawful. The Alabama and Mississippi counties and Louisiana parishes that once constituted the Spanish territory of West Florida must be reunified with Florida, and new congressional maps of each of the affected states redrawn by a special master.
Could this happen? No way. This is the most contrived pretense to have some fun and waste some time since The Expendables 2. But who cares? Let’s have some fun.
First, some history. Spanish Florida was ceded to the British Empire after the Seven Years’ War. The British divided the territory into East Florida and West Florida, with the Apalachicola River as the dividing line between East Florida, bounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and the Caribbean Sea to the south, and West Florida, bounded by the Mississippi River to the west and Lake Ponchartrain to the south. At the end of the Revolutionary War, in which Spain fought the British in support of the Thirteen Colonies, the British ceded the Floridas back to Spain. Instead of reunifying the Floridas, the Spanish maintained the division along the Apalachicola. That turned out to be a bad idea, because when the United States made the Louisiana Purchase from France, the Jefferson administration decided that West Florida was included in the vast new Louisiana Territory. When American settlers in West Florida revolted against the Spanish and seized control of most of the territory (all of it except for the part in present-day Florida), the United States quickly annexed it, despite Spain’s objections. About a decade later, in 1819, Spain ceded the rest of West Florida as well as East Florida to the United States in exchange for the United States’ official recognition of Spanish authority over New Spain. That was also a bad idea, as it turned out, but that’s another story. In 1822, the United States reorganized its new territory to merge the eastern end of West Florida (the part that was not incorporated into Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana) with East Florida, finally giving modern-day Florida its present shape.
But for the purposes of this exercise, all of that has suddenly changed, and the highest court in the land has required the reformation of Florida as it existed prior to 1763. How does that change the Sunshine State?
Well, in short: enough. If the Supreme Court had handed down this decision prior to the 2008 presidential election, it would have handed the enlarged state of Florida’s electoral votes to Sen. John McCain by an absurdly thin, 2000-esque margin of 0.02 percentage points in the two-party vote. Mitt Romney, who improved on McCain’s performance almost everywhere, would have carried Florida in 2012. Florida would add 2,079,454 residents of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, per the 2010 Census numbers. By my back-of-the-envelope math, it would add three new congressional districts for a total of 30, giving it 32 electoral votes that would hover, North Carolina-like, just inside the realm of competitiveness for a Democrat while favoring the Republican Party in most years.
So let’s take a look at this new SuperFlorida, beginning with its added territory in what is now a very, very long Panhandle.
FL-01 (blue): This district, entirely within present-day Louisiana, is anchored by the old Cajun city of Baton Rouge. Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy lives here, but he is retiring from the House to run for Senate in Louisiana. If he wins election this year and the Supreme Court rules that his hometown is legally part of another state, well, he just might have to move. Despite the presence of purplish Baton Rouge, this is a pretty red district, although Democrats are locally stronger here than they are at the presidential level. 42.9% Obama (in 2008).
FL-02 (green): By far the reddest district in the new Florida. The Mississippi Gulf Coast actually has quite a bit of population relative to its state, although it’s the least populous component of Florida’s new territory in this scenario. However, it’s also the most Republican. Rep. Steven Palazzo, a Gulfport Republican, lives here. Considering then-Sen. Barack Obama lost the two-party vote here in 2008 almost 1:4, Palazzo is not going to have any trouble in a general election, even though this area was represented by a Democrat (party traitor Gene Taylor) until 2011. 27.2% Obama.
FL-03 (purple): What was known in colonial times as the Mobile District, now otherwise-landlocked Alabama’s only outlet to the Gulf of Mexico, is almost populous enough for its own congressional district on this map. It grabs up Pascagoula from present-day Mississippi and a snippet of Escambia County in present-day Florida to round out its numbers. Mobile is not a particularly Democratic city, and Obama got thumped here. Republican Rep. Bradley Byrne, a political climber who lost a primary for governor in 2010, considered running for Alabama Supreme Court in 2012, and finally jumped up to higher office after a contentious special U.S. House election in 2013, lives here. Byrne would likely be more concerned about guarding his right flank than fending off Democratic challengers in this red district. 38.3% Obama.
FL-04 (red): Now we’re into what we know as the Florida Panhandle, but prospects aren’t getting much brighter for Team Blue. McCain won this district about 3:1 in 2008, and Democratic attentions in north Florida are likelier to be focused on Tallahassee- and Jacksonville-area seats under this map. Republican Rep. Jeff Miller lives here, in Santa Rosa County, and he would be unlikely to face serious opposition from the Democratic Party. 32.5% Obama.
FL-05 (yellow): The bad news is that McCain won this district, too. The good news is that Democrats have some local strength here, with Tallahassee Democrat Gwen Graham tipped to potentially defeat Republican Rep. Steve Southerland of Panama City this year. As drawn, this district definitely leans toward the Republican Party, but if there’s an example of presidential numbers perhaps exaggerating Team Red’s edge in this state, here it is. 47.9% Obama.
FL-06 (teal): Unfortunately, this map doesn’t produce a winnable seat for Democrats in the Gainesville area. While the city itself has a dark blue core, it is ringed by conservative territory, and Republicans come away with a pretty safe district here, just as they do in the current Florida congressional map. Republican Rep. Ted Yoho lives here, in Gainesville, and would be heavily favored to continue representing this district in future congresses. 41.8% Obama.
FL-07 (magenta): Now we jump a bit to the Tampa area, where we have our first Democratic district. The special master has magically done away with the gerrymandering of this seat (would that the real-life judge had done the same), represented in Congress by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor of Tampa. White residents fall just short of a majority in this district, although they are a plurality. As the seat takes in a portion of Tampa suburbia that is fairly conservative, this district is not overwhelmingly Democratic as the current FL-14 is, but there is little reason why Castor or any other Democrat should ever lose it. 59.5% Obama.
FL-08 (lime): This Nature Coast district looks like it should be fairly competitive in a neutral or Democratic year. There are no particularly big cities here to speak of, but most of this turf is pretty closely divided by 2008 presidential numbers. Two Republican congressmen live here: Reps. Rich Nugent of Spring Hill and Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor. Democrats could benefit from the infighting, and neither Republican has a particularly moderate voting record for this swing seat. 48.9% Obama.
FL-09 (cyan): Our special master wiped out the gerrymandering of Pinellas County to produce a St. Petersburg-based district that, not omitting crucial Democratic precincts on the southern tip of the peninsula, legitimately leans toward the Democratic Party. Rep. David Jolly, the Republican elected earlier this year in a real heartbreaker of a special election, lives on the barrier island of Indian Shores in this district. While Jolly has literally no competition this year after a series of recruiting failures by local Democrats, he would be assured of a tough fight in 2016 in this scenario. 56.4% Obama.
FL-10 (orange): This awkward-looking district is essentially the inland portion of the Nature Coast area. A lot of Nugent and Bilirakis voters are here, so one or both might try to run here, but as far as I can tell, there is no incumbent living here. This is pretty Republican-friendly terrain, although it might not be completely out of reach in an open-seat situation with a Democratic wave. 43.9% Obama.
FL-11 (maroon): The Bradenton-Sarasota area is not very Democratic, but a compact district that reaches up into the south side of the Tampa area gives Democrats a pretty solid shot here. Unfortunately, Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan of Sarasota is quite practiced at winning reelection in what should be a moderately competitive district, despite his many ethical shortcomings. This district is swingier than Buchanan’s current district, though, so it might be a different ball game under this map. 49.3% Obama.
FL-12 (cornflower blue): The Cape Coral area is actually quite Republican. Under the existing map, Republicans drew Port Charlotte and Cape Coral into separate districts, just for good measure. But even a community-of-interest district keeping them together looks fairly solid for Team Red. No incumbent lives here, although the House’s newest member, Republican Rep. Curt Clawson, lives close enough nearby that he might run here. 46% Obama.
FL-13 (salmon): We’re jogging back up to the northeastern corner of the state to cover the Jacksonville area. Florida Republicans’ ruthless racial gerrymander of the Jacksonville and Orlando areas was recently ruled unconstitutional by a judge, leaving the current congressional map in limbo. Obviously, a special master would never draw such a monstrosity as the current FL-05, represented by Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown of Jacksonville. Brown would live in this compact, swingy seat. I’m not sure if Republican Rep. Anders Crenshaw, who lives in eastern Jacksonville, would as well. That could make for a pretty entertaining general election matchup, actually. Note that I have not drawn this as a VRA district, because Jacksonville is too white for one that doesn’t crack the city like Brown’s current district. 52.3% Obama.
FL-14 (olive): The coastal part of the Jacksonville area is very, very conservative, and Crenshaw really might rather run here than try his luck in an urban seat. However, he would have to get past tea partying Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis, who lives in Ponte Vedra Beach just south of Jacksonville. Democrats can’t touch DeSantis under the current map, and this map would be little different. 38.6% Obama.
FL-15 (slate blue): This district encompasses the exurban and suburban area between Orlando and north Florida. Republican Rep. John L. Mica lives just outside the district, in Winter Park, so he might run here. The odds aren’t bad for Mica. As drawn, this is a safe seat for Team Red. 42.7% Obama.
FL-16 (orange-red): Here’s another Democratic district, based in the city of Orlando itself. Perhaps not coincidentally, it’s also a minority-majority district. The seat’s resident congressmen are Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson of Orlando and Republican Rep. Daniel Webster of Winter Springs. In a matchup between the two, even Grayson’s mouth probably isn’t enough to get him into trouble in what should be a pretty easy hold for Team Blue. 59.2% Obama.
FL-17 (slate grey): This seat is also minority-majority, but just barely. It fits snugly around the western and southern side of the previous district, taking in the heavily Latino Orlando suburb of Kissimmee as well as some conservative turf in Lake, Polk, and Sumter counties. It should be a pretty fair fight between Democrats and Republicans, perhaps leaning toward the former. No incumbent lives here, although Republican Rep. Dennis Ross lives fairly close by, in Lakeland. 54.7% Obama.
FL-18 (navy): Another fair-fight district in the Orlando area, this seat covers eastern Orange County and most of Seminole County. This is where Mica lives, which could give Republicans a pretty serious leg up, as he is a strong incumbent. That being said, I wouldn’t envy trying to explain his down-the-line conservative voting record in a district that voted for Obama in 2008 by more than six points. 53.2% Obama.
FL-19 (yellow-green): And this is Ross’ district, a considerably better bet for Team Red than the previous seat. This is the first of two districts stretching across south-central Florida’s swampy interior. Polk County is really the anchor of the district, but there’s enough Tampa and Space Coast exurbia to tip it decisively to the right. 43.8% Obama.
FL-20 (lime green): This is the dedicated Space Coast district. Republican Rep. Bill Posey of Rockledge is the incumbent here, but Posey could face a stiff challenge from a strong Democrat in a good year. While Republicans have historically been strong in this area, Obama came close in 2008, and the district includes blue areas as well as reddish one. 48.2% Obama.
FL-21 (gold): Port St. Lucie provides the anchor for this Atlantic coastal district, which is a fairly natural successor to the existing FL-18. That district’s congressman, Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, lives in Jupiter, just south of the district line. Murphy could run here anyway, of course, and as he has been solid in a district with much the same profile so far, he would likely be the favorite to hold it. 49% Obama.
FL-22 (sienna): We’re getting into true south Florida now, and Democrats are very strong in this region. This Palm Beach-based district is no different. Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel, who lives here, won election to a swing seat pretty handily in 2012. She definitely has some job security here, as the district is solidly blue. 61% Obama.
FL-23 (aquamarine): Before you get too comfortable, here’s a safe Republican district, spanning the Everglades and taking in some conservative territory on the southern Gulf of Mexico coast of Florida, including Clawson’s home in Bonita Springs. A lot of this area is represented by Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, but he lives in Miami, well outside this district’s boundaries. 41.9% Obama.
FL-24 (indigo): This Boca Raton-based district contains the home of veteran Democratic Rep. Ted Deutsch. It’s more coastal and centered further to the south than Deutsch’s current district, but it’s pretty similar in terms of its characteristics. Deutsch should have no trouble hanging on here. 63.2% Obama.
FL-25 (pale violet-red): This is a safe Democratic district that I don’t think has an incumbent. Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz lives very close by, in Weston, across Interstate 595. But she’s in a perfectly good district of her own. This is a minority-majority district that has a sizable black population, so the potential exists here for a Democrat of color to be elected. 69.7% Obama.
FL-26 (grey): Wasserman Schultz lives in this Fort Lauderdale-based district, another minority-majority seat in south Florida. She would have no trouble winning reelection here. Whites fall just short of a majority here, constituting a strong plurality, although the Democratic electorate is likely to be more diverse. 65.9% Obama.
FL-27 (spring green): I don’t see a real incumbent for this suburban Miami district, either. As with FL-25, a Democratic congresswoman, Rep. Frederica Wilson of Miami, lives close by to the district, but her Miami seat is safe as well. I think Diaz-Balart might live here, but he would certainly not want to run in this district Obama carried almost 2:1 in 2008. Latinos are a majority in this district, providing an opportunity for a Cuban or Puerto Rican Democrat to move up to Congress. 64.4% Obama.
FL-28 (plum): Another minority-majority seat, this is the home district for Wilson. The only potential trouble she could have is in a primary, as in 2012, when she defended her seat fairly easily from Haitian American candidate Rudy Moise. If I were Wilson, I’d be feeling pretty good about how her seat is drawn on this map. It’s the most Democratic seat in the state by 2008 presidential performance. 72.9% Obama.
FL-29 (dark sea green): Of course, in the largely Democratic megapolis of south Florida, there exists a dark red enclave, heavily populated with unreconstructed Cuban émigrés inclined toward the Republican Party. This is the home turf of Republican Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the most senior Republican woman in Congress. Diaz-Balart might live here, and I’m not actually sure if Ros-Lehtinen resides within these district boundaries, but it’s unquestionably Ros-Lehtinen’s seat. That being said, there’s less good real estate for Republicans in south Florida under this neutral map than there is in the present gerrymander, and Diaz-Balart might decide to challenge Ros-Lehtinen in a primary. A Democrat could win Ros-Lehtinen’s real-life current district when she hangs it up, but this seat is (for now) beyond hopeless, even though it has a wide Latino majority. 40.8% Obama.
FL-30 (light coral): At least Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia has nothing to worry about. With the reddest parts of the Miami area safely contained in their own community of interest, most of Garcia’s district on Florida’s southern tip and out along the Florida Keys is solidly Democratic territory. He should have no trouble holding down this Latino-majority seat, and he could probably afford to move a bit to the left in it. 57.6% Obama.
Conclusions: SuperFlorida is only more equitable for Democrats under this map because it’s not a partisan gerrymander. I count 12 solid seats for the Republican Party, nine seats that should be reliably Democratic, and nine seats that are competitive to varying degrees. All of Florida’s added territory is pretty much uniformly red.
However, Democrats do add a bit of advantage in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana from the loss of West Florida.
ALABAMA
The partisan change in Alabama is basically nonexistent. Obama won 39.1% here in the 2008 two-party vote—the same as he did with Mobile attached. Still, having court-drawn lines would be a big boon here. Note that Alabama does lose enough population, by my math, to surrender a congressional district, with AL-07 sacrificed in the separation of West Florida.
AL-01 (blue): Northern Alabama is not Democratic turf anymore, and that certainly doesn’t change under this map. Republican Rep. Mo Brooks lives in Huntsville, the largest city in the district, and while Blue Dog Democrats used to do very, very well here, times have changed. 38.3% Obama.
AL-02 (green): Democrats have even less of a chance at this district in northwestern Alabama. The incumbent here is Rep. Robert Aderholt, a Haleyville Republican. Aderholt is probably the most moderate member of Congress we are ever likely to see out of this area, which is a dismal state of affairs, but it is what it is. 28.8% Obama.
AL-03 (purple): The less said about this district, the better. It’s the most Republican out of any of these states, with Obama losing it worse than 3:1 in the two-party 2008 vote. Republican Rep. “No Not That” Mike Rogers, best known for nobody knowing who he is, lives here, in the small city of Anniston. Despite Rogers’ anonymity, this district is so far out of Democrats’ striking range as to not be worth talking about anymore. 24.1% Obama.
AL-04 (red): Alabama’s current gerrymandered condition makes it a difficult case. This district is clearly analogous to the current district represented by Republican Rep. Martha Roby. But Roby actually lives in Montgomery, the state capital, which is not in this district. Roby’s political base is Montgomery, where she used to serve on the city council. That might mean some action in the Republican primary here. Forget the general election; Democrats held southeastern Alabama before Roby came along, but that might as well be an eternity ago. 35.5% Obama.
AL-05 (yellow): So this is interesting. It turns out that a compact district in the Montgomery area fits a community-of-interest standard (major city and inner suburbs plus two intact counties in the metropolitan area), but doesn’t actually fulfill the VRA’s requirement for a minority-majority district in Alabama. Here we have the strange spectacle of a Democratic-leaning seat in blood-red Alabama that is actually majority-white, although black Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell of Birmingham is its likely congresswoman. Republican Rep. Spencer Bachus lives here in the Birmingham suburb of Vestavia Hills. With the Republican gerrymander undone, he goes from representing the most Republican district in the country to fighting for his political life in a seat that went for Obama by several points in 2008. How ‘bout them apples? 53.1% Obama.
AL-06 (teal): With Alabama contracting from seven to six districts and a special master almost certainly averse to drawing the spidery racial gerrymander that is Sewell’s current AL-07, the best that can be done with reasonably compact, non-insane-looking districts is a minority-majority VRA seat connecting Montgomery with southwestern Alabama. Roby lives here and could actually run here, since it’s a swing seat even though whites are only a plurality of district residents. 51.4% Obama.
Conclusions: Discard any community-of-interest preservation and put on a partisan hat, and it’s totally easy to press the Republican advantage in Alabama even without the “Mobile District”. But this map produces a 4-1-1 that would, in most years, probably give Democrats a third of Alabama’s congressional districts. The Alabama Republican Party may disagree, but I think that sounds pretty darn fair.
MISSISSIPPI
This was a fun one, mostly because a methodical approach inadvertently yielded a pretty great result for Team Blue. It definitely helps that a big chunk of Mississippi’s most conservative voters are gone, bringing the state up to 45.3% Obama in 2008 (and better in 2012) from 43.4%. The state remains at four congressional districts, according to my calculations, albeit rather narrowly.
MS-01 (blue): So this was a real surprise. With the Gulf Coast gone, the Mississippi Delta north of the Jackson metropolitan area is about the right size for a congressional district, when added together with the Memphis suburbs. The result is a district that actually went for Obama in 2008, albeit narrowly. This would probably be a legitimate battleground district, with Republicans slightly favored in an open-seat scenario during midterm years and Democrats perhaps having a smaller advantage in presidential years. There is no incumbent living here, so call it a coin flip for who’s on first. 50.8% Obama.
MS-02 (green): The Jackson seat extends into southwestern Mississippi instead of running north along the Mississippi River. It also stays clear of Rankin County, for better or for worse. There’s a strong community-of-interest argument to be made for keeping Hinds and Rankin counties together, but then again, demographically speaking, they couldn’t be much different. Besides, I played with that configuration in my last diary. Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson lives here in the tiny Jackson suburb of Bolton, and indeed, he would flay any Republican foolhardy enough to run against him. 57.5% Obama.
MS-03 (purple): There is simply no more Democratic territory in Mississippi to speak of. Rep. Alan Nunnelee, a Tupelo Republican, would easily hold down this northeastern district, and that’s just about all there is to say. 39.3% Obama.
MS-04 (red): The only threat to Republican Rep. Gregg Harper of Pearl in this southeastern Mississippi district, which includes tony Rankin County, is from the right. Harper seems to be well-connected, and he would likely shrug off any challengers. The Gulf Coast isn’t here for Harper, but he doesn’t need it now and he wouldn’t need it here. 33% Obama.
Conclusions: Once again, nonpartisan redistricting is a boon to Democrats. It’s entirely possible a special master would prefer to draw a rounder or more northerly Jackson-based district, thereby spoiling Democrats’ chance to win a second seat out of Mississippi, but there’s a good case that the Jackson area and southwestern Mississippi are a separate community of interest from the Delta region of northwestern Mississippi. Anyway, Republicans have two seats here, Democrats have one, and one is up for grabs. That seems pretty reasonable in a small state where Obama fell short by single digits in 2008 and 2010.
LOUISIANA
The Pelican State also sheds a congressional district, dropping from six to five as its state capital of Baton Rouge and lands easterly go to Florida. I don’t know what Louisiana’s new capital would be, but it could go back to New Orleans, which was the capital when Louisiana gained statehood and until 1849. Then again, Republicans that control the state’s politics might prefer to put it in a more conservative city, like Lafayette or Alexandria. Who knows? Louisiana also becomes slightly more Democratic without the so-called Florida Parishes, going from 40.5% Obama in 2008 to 41.5% in the two-party vote.
LA-01 (blue): Not much help here, although a compact northwestern Louisiana district based in Shreveport is actually at the outside edge of winnability for the right Democrat. Republican Rep. John Fleming is the incumbent here. He lives in Minden, a majority-black city in the Shreveport area. 43.1% Obama.
LA-02 (green): This is the one Democratic seat that can be drawn compactly and fairly in Louisiana with the Florida Parishes gone. While the state moves slightly bluer, Democrats are even more concentrated, losing light-blue East Baton Rouge Parish and essentially having just Orleans Parish and a couple of small parishes elsewhere in the state. Democratic Rep. Cedric Richmond would thrive here in this seat, based in his hometown of New Orleans. The district is minority-majority, although plurality-white. I believe Republican Rep. Steve Scalise would also live here, in Jefferson, although he would not likely run here. 57.2% Obama.
LA-03 (purple): This is Scalise’s home base, in the largely conservative suburbia and bayou ringing New Orleans. A few of these parishes are friendly to Democrats, but they’re really too small to make much of a difference. It would be very difficult to unseat Scalise, who is the number three Republican in the House and has a pretty safe district here. 37.9% Obama.
LA-04 (red): This district seems tailor-made for Republican Rep. Charles Boustany of Lafayette. It closely resembles his current district, with some southwestern bayou as well as the Republican city of Lafayette, and just about all of this territory will be quite familiar to him. 35.2% Obama.
LA-05 (yellow): The remainder of Louisiana is in this district, slashing across the state’s “neck” from northeast to southwest. The kissing congressman, Republican Rep. Vance McAllister, lives here in Swartz, but I don’t know if even the Swartz will be with him when he tries to convince voters to give him a full term of office this year. This district is really out of range for Democrats in this configuration, as almost none of it is fertile ground. 34.4% Obama.
Conclusions: There’s not much to be done for Louisiana. Democrats are far too concentrated for even nonpartisan redistricting to have much effect, especially with the only large parish besides Orleans that Obama won in 2008 gone. Republicans would win four out of Louisiana’s five seats here, with Democrats holding onto the remaining district.
Look out for more Floridian redistricting fun in the near future, as I take a few alternate looks at West Florida’s political status. Enjoy!